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PA-Sen: Monmouth Poll: McGinty 39% Sestak 39% Fetterman 4%

Katie_McGintyBusiness just picked up.

According to the latest Monmouth Poll, Katie McGinty has tied Joe Sestak in the Senate Democratic primary.

This is the first poll to show McGinty catching Sestak and comes just six days before the April 26th contest.

McGinty and Sestak each recorded 39% while Braddock Mayor John Fetterman is at just 4%. 18% of respondents, though, are still undecided.

Nearly half of voters have no opinion of Sestak, 48%, or McGinty, 51%, so the race will come down to which campaign can better convince those last-minute deciders.

Monmouth also found that McGinty runs best in the western portion of the state (51-28-10) while Sestak is ahead in the Southeast/Philadelphia region (45-34-1) as well as the Northeastern and Central parts of the commonwealth (43-31-3).

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from April 17th to 19th and included 302 likely PA Democratic primary voters. The margin of error is +/- 5.6%.

April 20th, 2016 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Senate, Top Stories | 31 Comments

31 thoughts on “PA-Sen: Monmouth Poll: McGinty 39% Sestak 39% Fetterman 4%”

  1. What is one accomplishment of McGinty? says:

    Has ever won an election in her life? Has she ever held a position in office? No, she was win Wolf for like a week. I honestly can’t think of one thing.

  2. eagleswing says:

    if MGinty wins it’s because rank and file voters have been shut out of being allowed to choose their own candidate. instead the primary victory will have been bought for the 7th choice 4th rate candidate supported by big money and revenge politics at the national level .

    since i prefer to vote on credentials instead of what puppet candidate big money is trying to shove down my throat, i’m sticking with sestak, who has actually won elections against republicans. although i very much like Fetterman personally, i think a vote for him with 4% poll numbers will be a throwaway protest vote –like Nader– that lets the big money Rendellians buy the Dem endorsement for their chosen puppet for Senate.

  3. David Diano says:

    Mcginty’s revolving door to $$$-

    Sure. Pick the poll that reinforces your desired outcome, regardless of the obvious error in the presidential results

  4. Mcginty's revolving door to $$$ says:

    I’m sticking with the F&M poll showing Sestak ahead of McG by 6 points or 9 points, whichever stat we want to consider. Go Joe!

  5. David Diano says:

    Dem-

    Not only that:
    “The poll shows Hillary Clinton with a sizable lead over Bernie Sanders, 58% to 31%, which is consistent with her lead in prior
    polls.”

    27 points is not remotely consistent with anything, other than F&M’s poll a month ago showing the race at 25 points.

    This is completely at odds with the other polls showing the race around 10 to 15 points.

    I think F&M has jumped the shark.

    “The poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this release represent the responses of Pennsylvania registered voters, including
    510 Democrats and 549 Republicans. The sample of registered voters was obtained from Labels & Lists. All sampled respondents were notified by letter about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and on-line depending on each respondent’s preference.”

    Labels and Lists is sh*tty service. The model should have been likely voters. Within this sample, there is a “likely voter” statistic, but that’s clearly based on those surveyed claiming they are likely to vote.

    At least F&M acknowledges why their method is so piss-poor:
    ” Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Nonresponse bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions”

    No kidding.

    This poll isn’t worth the electrons to display it.

  6. One Term Patty says:

    McGinty will beat the Garden Gnome.

  7. Mcginty's revolving door to $$$ says:

    To: dem says:
    Monmouth only 1 day more recent than F&M and Monmouth only had 302 people in survey. I’m sticking with F&M poll. Go Sestak!

  8. dem says:

    The Monmouth poll was in the field more recently than F&M.

  9. BDem says:

    Franklin and Marshall poll this am has Sestak UP by 6%

  10. Jo says:

    Bill, the poll from Monmouth had landline and cell users (202 landline 100 cell), unlike the other recent poll from Harper which only used landlines. If you spend some time reading the details and demographics of the poll instead of just automatically jumping to spewing idiocy you’d know. If you’re going to complain about the poll parameters, point out that the people interviewed skew female and white when compared with PA demographics broadly.

    Revolving door, a poll from weeks ago means nothing with the amount of money pouring into the dem ad wars now, plus the closer you get to an election you naturally see more people switch from undecided to decided.

    We’re seeing normal fluctuations as candidates become more well-known to people who are unlike those who comment on this website. Just because you knew who the candidates were going to be a year ago doesn’t mean the rest of Pennsylvania did.

  11. Mcginty's revolving door to $$$ says:

    F&M poll April 11-18 has it: Sestak, McG, Fetterman at 38-29-8. Large undecided. Why was Monmouth showing far fewer undecideds? Sestak seems to still be ahead, yes?

  12. Same Old Same Old says:

    It’s common knowledge that polls have statistical difficulties that are difficult to adjust to in this new cell phone/landline world. I was one of the people surveyed here and from a landline which these days is like driving a horse and buggy. So, the most one could assess from this poll is that 4 million has tightened the race but beyond that who knows what else it means. As I said before, 10 million is what Toomey has and he most assuredly will make great hay with the major issue of McGinty’s ties to energy boards and her million dollar pay over 5 years on them. We need Sestak to win to have any chance in the fall.

  13. McGinty will probably win only because says:

    The DNC and every single super pac and group that isn’t a newspaper is sending loads of money out of their wazzou to elect her. It’s funny how desperate they are for her to win and even funnier if she somehow loses given the obscene amount of money she’s received for free. At least in Delco and Montco, I only see Sestak signs. But she’ll probably win. I won’t be voting for her.

  14. David Diano says:

    Mcginty’s revolving door to $$$, Bill, and the mathematically challenged-

    A sample size of 300 gives you a +/- 5.6%.

    This means that there is 95% confidence that the “true result” is within that 5.6% of the poll result. 1/20 times, the result will be outside that margin. 1/40 to one side and another 1/40 to the other side.

    A poll with a sample size of 1,000 shrinks that 95% confidence interval to around +/- 2% or 3%.

    That assumes the sampling, and methodology is good, and the questions aren’t biased, and the order of candidates name is given randomly as well.

    I don’t think the polls say: John Fetterman of Allegheny, which might be more accurate in picking up regional voting preferences.

    Let’s see if another pollster gets similar numbers before we all get too excited either way. I’m still keeping my “For Sale” sign for Joe’s house in storage for the time being.

    If Joe does lose this primary…. a picture of me standing next to his real “For Sale” sign will be my Facebook picture for the rest of the year. 🙂

  15. Same Old Same Old says:

    McGinty is a real “average person” who sat on the NRG Board of Directors and earned $1.1 million in 5 years. Google “McGinty and Energy Boards” or check out freebeacon.com website. Sounds like Katie McGinty is a real “ordinary folk!”

  16. Bill says:

    300 landline calls… worthless poll.

  17. Zakrey Bissell says:

    Good polling is we have Monmouth and I think for that Katie McGinty will win this upset in the Democratic US Senate Primary next week.

  18. Mcginty's revolving door to $$$ says:

    This looks like a poll designed with an agenda in mind. How can 302 likely Dem voters be accurate? 302 voters out of 67 counties. What, 10 from Philadelphia as a “weighted” sample. I am sure Sestak is ahead by a lot. As Khalil said above, the canvassing in my area is definitely all Sestak and the sheer number of volunteers for Sestak is impressive. I do understand the difference between a poll and anecdotal evidence gleaned from canvassing, but, as I said, I doubt the authenticity of this 302 person poll. Something does not pass the “smell” test. Either more polls are needed or the real poll on election day. BTW–Joe should start going into territory where Toomey will likely go, should she win—revolving door $$$ and fast tracking a dirty coal plant, ethics question, etc., etc., and so forth. McGinty is certainly no environmentalist.

  19. David Diano says:

    “Neighbor”

    How would five (or even one) chrome book help a poll like this where you are randomly called based on your voter registration record?
    Stay on topic.

    For a PoliticsPA poll, I can change my IP address just by going into flight mode, and back out. Network assigns new IP address each time.

    Your five chromebooks would all have the same IP address.

    Sad. I deserve more thoughtful insults.

    Alexandria-

    I like the irony that your name is the location of Sestak’s real home.

    Actually, aggregate only works for polls in same time frame. Most recent poll always carries more weight. I’d like to see this backed up by another poll.

    The older polls don’t take into account the past few weeks of ads and mailers.

  20. David Diano's Neighbor in Mom's Basement says:

    Does anyone doubt that David has five Chromebooks set up in the basement so he can vote five times in every PoliticsPA poll?

  21. Alexandria Khalil says:

    Folks, while this is a good poll for McGinty, the aggregate of polling shows that Joe is still ahead.

    From my canvassing on the ground – Joe is looking good.

  22. David Diano says:

    Bobby-

    Just wanted to make sure you corrected your estimate from 5 to 7. 🙂

    I would add to your list a Debate meltdown (more than a gaff) where McGinty or Fetterman does to Sestak-bot what Christie did to Rubio-bot.

    Sestak can’t think on his feet.

  23. Bobby says:

    David, most watched means 7 people as opposed to 5. It’s a Sunday morning down ballot debate. No one cares.

    Things that are likely to swing this election:
    1 – Money and effective ads
    2 – Horrible gaff in the next 3 days
    3 – Bernie supporter turnout with the presidential all wrapped up
    4 – Weird Vodvarka effect with his shared name with Sestak and top of ballot position

  24. David Diano says:

    Bobby-

    The final debate will be the most watched debate.

    My understanding is that it tapes Friday, and airs Sunday after the talk shows.

    McGinty needs to call Sestak out on his lies and anti-worker actions.

  25. PADem says:

    “McGinty really needs to kick Joe’s ass in the upcoming debate to seal the deal.”

    David will be the only one watching, though, and I don’t think he’s on the fence.

  26. go time says:

    Bobby, you’re a gentleman and a scholar.

  27. Bobby says:

    McGinty does not need to kick Sestak’s ass in the debate. Both candidates need to avoid saying anything horribly stupid since there will only be 5 people watching. You can’t “kick ass” in a primary debate against candidates with the same general policy positions. You can however get yourself a nasty story if you do something really dumb.

    This debate will be a snooze-fest.

  28. David Diano says:

    The likely voter model for this poll is:
    “likely Democratic voters drawn from a list of registered voters who participated in one of the two previous Democratic primaries, both of the last two general elections or who registered since 2014.”

    That yields about 1.55 to 1.6 million Dem voters, depending if “since 2014” means since beginning or end of 2014.

    This poll (if accurate) would be a strong indication that McGinty has been effective in getting her message out (lot’s of mailers) and the endorsements are paying off.

    Of course, there is still the unknown “VodVarka effect”.

    McGinty really needs to kick Joe’s ass in the upcoming debate to seal the deal.

  29. hopeful says:

    Mcginty is in a strong position to win by 3 to 5 points. Big cash advantage in last 10 days. Toomey may be playing games in this race. Why? Someone has put $132,000 into a superpac supporting him. That will allow him some presence in the last days in Western PA where McGinty is running well. Toomey does not want to face Clinton-McGinty in November.Especially with the crazy Trump getting killed by women across PA, and especially in Philly suburbs.

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