PA-Sen: PPP Poll: Toomey To Face Tough Re-Election

Pat ToomeyIt looks like Sen. Pat Toomey might have to fight tooth and nail to keep his seat in 2016.

According to a Public Policy Poll released Tuesday, the Republican Senator’s approval rating has dipped to 28 percent, a three-point drop from the last survey in June. Just 22 percent of women and independent voters approve of the senator’s job performance.

Toomey is hard-pressed to find support even within his own party. Neither Republicans nor very conservative voters break the 50 percent threshold, polling at 39 percent and 44 percent approval ratings, respectively.

The PPP survey has slightly better news for Toomey’s potential Democratic challengers.

Topping the Democratic field is former Governor Ed Rendell, who would defeat Toomey 44 to 41 percent in a hypothetical matchup, with just 15 percent undecided. Rendell polls with 43 percent favorability and leads Toomey in name recognition 85 to 63 percent.

The former two-term Governor carries a substantial 17-point advantage with independent voters. Rendell also leads among both genders — one point with men and six points with women.

2010 Democratic Senate nominee Joe Sestak has already announced his 2016 campaign. The former congressman, who lost by just two points to Toomey in 2010, has been preparing for a rematch since 2013.

But the PPP survey finds Sestak with less success against Toomey. Sestak garners just a 19 percent approval rating and would fall to Toomey in a hypothetical matchup 40 to 36 percent with 23 percent undecided.

MSNBC pundit Chris Matthews, who flirted with a 2010 run, would also trail Toomey by four points in a matchup, 42 to 38 percent with 20 percent undecided.

While Attorney General Kathleen Kane has passed on a Senate bid, PPP decided to throw her in the mix. Kane polls one point ahead of Toomey in name recognition but lags six points in a hypothetical matchup.

Other Democratic contenders included in the survey were Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter and Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro. Nutter trails Toomey by seven points and Shapiro falls by 12.

Though only Rendell would best Toomey in a hypothetical election, a low approval rating and close matchups with Sestak, Matthews and Kane are reason to cause the senator concern. His re-election already labelled a “toss-up” and a “race to watch,” the fiscal conservative and former Club for Growth President has an uphill battle to win support in the blue Keystone State.

Furthermore, this will be even more difficult in a presidential election year, as PA hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

“Early indications are that Pennsylvania will have one of the most hard fought Senate races in the country next year,” PPP’s President Dean Debnam stated. “Pat Toomey hasn’t made a very strong impression on voters one way or another in his first four years in the Senate, and that leaves him pretty vulnerable if the Democrats are able to land a strong candidate.”

PPP surveyed 1,042 registered voters from Jan.15-18, with 80 percent of interviews conducted over the phone and 20 percent online. The margin of error is +/- 3 percent.

17 Responses

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  2. I hope the two people making Corbett Toomey comparisons are drunk. Being wasted so early in the day is a better alternative to actually believing there is something there, especially considering Corbett was down double digits to just about anyone at this point last year.

  3. Sestak is already sending out fundraising emails touting this poll, and treating his 4-point deficit as a likely victory by misleadingly taking the headline “Toomey to face tough reelection” to imply that he’s the biggest challenge to Toomey.

    Rendell isn’t even running and is doing 7 points better than Sestak.

    Sestak also has a 19% approval rating compared to 28% for Toomey.

    And, Toomey has at least 5 times the cash on hand to burnish his image. Sestak gets less likable the more voters listen to him.

  4. Don’t count Shapiro out on name recognition – he will have the funding to ramp it up quickly. However, he has never faced any real opposition that had serious money for any of his races. He has whopping negatives that he has been able to hide, but if he is nominated he will never again be able to claim the reformer persona.

  5. Like Tom Corbett: ” Toomey is hard-pressed to find support even within his own party. Neither Republicans nor very conservative voters break the 50 percent threshold, polling at 39 percent and 44 percent approval ratings, respectively.”

  6. 2016 is a presidential year and I expect that Pennsylvania will go blue again, as it has, consistently, since 1992. The state Republican Party, as anyone familiar with it, knows is a semi-organized team of incompetent hacks. Pat Toomey faces real headwinds in Pennsylvania and is vulnerable. The Democrats are organized and competent.

    On the other hand, if he loses, there are many other national senators who will take low tax, limited government positions.
    Pat Toomey is running statewide, not in districts which have been gerrymandered. The Rs do not hold one statewide office (with some judicial exceptions usually in collusion with Ds).

    The AG, the Auditor General and the Treasurer are all Dems, as is, of course, the Governor.

    DelCo votes D above the county level. Bucks is marginal and controlled by Republicans infiltrated by anti-Toomey Unions and, definitely, not conservative and ChesCo may be okay but it is not a big vote county

    MontCo went blue in 2011 and will,likely, deliver many votes for any and every Democratic candidate, in my view, as it did in last election for Gov.

  7. lol so we have one guy commenting that he doesn’t stand up for the 2nd Amendment meanwhile another guy says he has “slavish devotion” to the Republican party. One of you is wrong.

  8. Senator “Me Too” Toomey has followed the party line from day one. We need his kind of slavish devotion to the party in order to stop the terrorists.

  9. Don’t leave Katie McGinty out of the Senate race. She would be a great candidate to represent Pa. In the Senate. With Clinton on the same ballot running for President. Katie would be a formidable candidate.

  10. Pat Toomey has been an excellent U.S. Senator for Pennsylvania and deserves to be re-electd. He has become a recognized leader among his colleagues in both parties.

    Pennsylvania needs to get seniority with her Republican Senator because, regardless of whether you like it or not, seniority matters in the Senate. His quality in this day and age is rare and should not be lost.

  11. Pretty clear that Toomey has problems and numbers like former Gov Corbett did and if folks will recall GOV Tom Wolf was polling dead last. A good campaign can change everything.

  12. So there are essentially no viable Democratic candidates? Rendell won’t run, and Sestak is trailing. To me, that spells bad news for the Democratic Party, and solid news for Toomey.

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