Without a doubt, Sen. Pat Toomey is a Democratic target in 2016.
In an article with POLITICO Magazine, Larry Sabato, director of University of Virginia’s politics center, ranks Toomey as one of the three most endangered Republicans in the upcoming election cycle. His re-election, along with Sen. Mark Kirk from Illinois and Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, are the only three toss-ups on Sabato’s 2016 Senate map.
The challenge for these three senators, Sabato writes, is that they face re-election in states that are more Democratic than the nation as a whole. All three states have consistently voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the past. In fact, Pennsylvania has not voted for a Republican at the top of the ticket since 1988.
So for a Democratic Party fervently looking to take back the Senate, these three seats are crucial.
According to Sabato, all the Democrats would need to do to win the Senate in 2016 “is to win the three yellow toss-up states (Pennsylvania, Illinois and Wisconsin) where they have a natural advantage, plus a couple of the current ‘lean Republican’ states that have voted for Obama. And Democrats will need only one ‘lean R’ state if the party wins the White House, guaranteeing that a Democratic vice president would break a 50-50 Senate tie.”
Sabato, though, recognized that Toomey has a “fighting chance.” During his first term, Toomey has moved further toward the center. Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight charted Toomey’s drop from the 94th percentile for conservatism in his first year in office to the 57th percentile for conservatism last year.
“Toomey has carved out a less conservative record than many expected, especially on gun control and gay rights, where his libertarian leanings are evident,” Sabato writes.
Another advantage for Toomey is the slim Democratic field vying to run against him. The party’s only declared candidate, 2010 nominee Joe Sestak, remains unpopular with state and national Democratic leaders, to the extent that they’re quietly — but actively — seeking alternatives.
Sestak, who lost to Toomey by just two points in 2010, is set to officially kick off his campaign Wednesday in Philadelphia’s Independence Hall.
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19 Responses
Toomey is a left winger so why the urge to rid of him? You libs all need a brain scan.
Toomey’s going to beat Sestak. The only question is by how much. I can’t believe the PA Democratic Party cannot find someone better than Sestak. Seriously though, voter registration is in your favor, its a presidential year and you can’t mount a serious candidate?
Oh yeah, swiftboated for sure.
I think you’ll find your time here on this political site unsatisfactory.
Just as I figured,Diano and Unsanctioned R have never served in the military. They just parrot the scuttlebutt they hear from people who pretend to be in the know. As far as the Navy Times goes, they do anything to drag this nation’s military in the mud, they are a useless rag that pretends to be a watchdog on the armed forces. Sure, very now and then they latch on to a big story and do it justice, however with the Sestak claims – it’s pure bull. Check your sources before you try to make youur over inflated claims youpartisan thugs. Warrior
Warrior
The Navy Times reported that Sestak was sacked (relieved of duty) for a “poor command climate”. His misbehavior was common knowledge, but he had been “protected” by a higher up (mentor/patron) until Admiral Mullen took over. Mullen’s first act was to relieve/reassign Sestak. Over the years I’ve run into military personnel who served and knew Sestak’s reputation.
Since Sestak sailed into PA politics, he has engaged in the same kind of abusive behaviour with both campaign staff and congressional staff. The key difference being that the civilian staff was not trapped on a ship in the middle of the ocean, and could quit.
It’s illogical to assume that Sestak was fair/kind to the men under his command, was sacked for no reason, then upon entering politics decided to start abusing both his campaign and congressional staffers.
Sestak is a living, breathing tribute to Captain Queeg.
Republicans are already campaigning against Sestak, and even started before his kickoff announcement. He must scare them.
Shapiros a guaranteed loss, hope he gets the nod
Toomey is hard core right wing conservative. He also has libertarian views which some people erroneously believe is more middle of the road. He is not as extreme as Santorum, but when Santorum ran for the Senate he always tracked back to the center also, then went right back to his extreme right wing agenda. Toomey is very good at giving lip service to his constituents but little action. He consistently talks anout supporting benefits for veterans but always votes against them in Congress. That will catch up to him in his re-election campaign.
“what do mean swiftboated?” And I’m the know-nothing?
Hey Diano, Are you some sort of armchair warrior? I’ll bet you never served in uniform! What do know about Sestak abusing his men? Prove it dip! Where you under his command?! As far as UnsanctionedR goes, what do mean swiftboated? Areyou another armchair warrior? A fairweather patriot? What crappy comments from a couple of know nothings! Idiots!
WTH-
He wasn’t last time.
The average voter doesn’t know how extreme Toomey is because he’s not dumb like Santorum and he doesn’t bring a snowball to congress and claim it disproves global warming. Toomey’s not fighting for a speaking slot at CPAC to advertise is extremism.
Is Toomey too much a far right extremist to get re-elected?
Warrior-
While Sestak was abusing his men with a poor command client, Toomey was kissing up to rich to help prevent them from paying their fair share of taxes.
Both these guys suck. You could pick a random name from a phonebook and get a better Senator.
Sestak is begging to be swift boated.
While Admiral Sestak was serving our country commanding ships and men where was Toomey? Eating his Milk Toast and running “Club For Growth” with his pal, Rick Santorum. You have the choice between a man’s man and a sniveling weasel, the choice is yours.
Your trolling for Shapiro is really getti8ng old.
While we’ve been busy talking up a Dem Senate primary in 2016, we’ve completely overlooked the very real possibility that the Tea Party and 2nd Amendment hardliners might very well find somebody among their ranks to run against Toomey next year. That would be very interesting indeed.
I don’t think he’ll lose, but if he does it won’t be because he didn’t get enough Democrats’ votes. It will be because ignorant NRA rank and file didn’t understand the genius of Toomey-Manchin. Democrats were delighted to not have to hold their noses and vote for making listbuilding a federal crime and amendments like whether grandpa could give you his gun. Shame on us (and NRA leadership–who signed off on it) for not explaining it better.
Josh Shapiro has honorably served the people of Pennsylvania as a State Representative, Deputy Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and now as Chairman of the Montgomery County Commission. Throughout his service to our state Josh has forged bipartisanship, led a turnaround in one of Pennsylvania’s most populated counties, reduced overall debt and eliminated a large budget deficit. And he did all of this while making the lives of Pennsylvania’s hard working, middle class families better.
Join the growing group of Pennsylvanians who want to elect Josh Shapiro to be our next US Senator by liking “READY FOR JOSH SHAPIRO” on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/PAvotersRise