“Even in waves, candidates still matter.”
So does opposition research.
That’s why analysts at the Cook Political Report said they moved Pennsylvania’s 1st congressional seat from Toss Up to Lean Republican – despite a district and a national environment that are unfavorable to the GOP.
Cook’s David Wasserman credited incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (and his brother) with building a moderate reputation and earning endorsements from Gabby Giffords and the AFL-CIO.
But moreso, Wasserman said the rating change reflected setbacks to Democratic hopeful Scott Wallace. He thinks the “out of touch rich guy” message, a common attack in many campaigns, has the potential to offset the benefits of Wallace’s self-funding potential.
“There’s a wide path for Fitzpatrick and Republicans to disqualify Wallace as out of touch,” he wrote.
Most of all, Wasserman thinks the attack on Wallace’s nonprofit has legs. ie. the Wallace Global Fund’s contributions to organizations that support the BDS movement, which concerned some Jewish community leaders in greater Philly and spurred attack ads from the Republican Jewish Coalition. Free drinks at the Capitol Hill Club for that oppo researcher.
Wallace says he did not approve the grants, which came from a discretionary fund he did not control, and that he unequivocally disavows the BDS movement.
The full Cook analysis is here.
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20 Responses
Fitzpatrick by 12
You are such a blow hard fake doctor!!
ad-hominem is evasive, as d2 has repeatedly been reminded
Cook’s Wasserman talks of the “out of touch rich guy”..well then what is Scott Wagner??? This is a candidate for Governor who decides the validity of health care by taking a poll at the Republican State Committee recently asking people who had employer sponsored health care to raise their hands. The Dems would be wise to use this mistake as a sure sign of detachment from the depth of the health care crisis.
Considering the AFL-CIO endorsed Fitzpatrick over Multi-Millionaire Wallace I think it’s Fitzpatrick’s to lose. Labor is a big part of the Democratic coalition, especially in Lower Bucks.
If control of congress comes down to this seat, then the unions are making a mistake backing the GOP. If GOP retains control of congress, the unions are screwed.
Screw unions. Their greed killed millions of jobs that were paying good wages and benefits. You don’t ask for $20 an hour for something that doesn’t require a GED, you greedy jerk
Give allllll the money to the top 1%.
The new 1st is:
197,905 Dem
191,774 Rep
and about 73,000 other/indy
for the last 3 elections (Prim 2017, Gen 2017 and Prim 2018) Dem turnout has exceeded Rep turnout
If the election is a referendum on Trump, and Wallace can tie Fitzpatrick to Trump, then Fitzpatrick is in trouble.
Ohhh Wallace has plenty of skeletons to come out
Diano, you don’t know sh*t about the 1st district. Wallace is a dud.
What does the M.D.stand for?
Major Disapointment
Zakrey Bissell-
I stated the numbers. That’s the key “sh*t” to start any analysis of the race. Whether or not “Wallace is a dud” could be irrelevant if voters make the election a referendum on Trump and taking back congress.
Fredo-
I think his M.D. stands for Mentally Defective or Morally Defective.
@d2:
As usual, you ignore your own data to derive a pre-ordained pro-Dem conclusion.
The Indies clearly outnumber the R/D-difference and, in PA, The Donald won [to an appreciable degree] due to their having tilted against Hill/Bill.
Moreover, your basic assumption that this may be a Trump Referendum is undermined by denial of the extremism [and, yes, “anti-Jewish” posturing] of Wallace that prompted Jewish Dems to eschew him.
This isn’t surprising, noting your anti-Israel/Zionism posturing but, again, you fail to recognize how your bias affects what you portray as a disinterested observation.
You may wish to consider seeking retirement from posting online political punditry, for the sake of both your “readership” and your mental health.
Dear God, Suck Sack. You are way worser than Diano with your religious bating garbage. Get a real job you fake doctor
@ZB
There is no religion-baiting; his prejudices have been corroborated/documented on this website over the years.
Zakrey Bissell-
Sklaroff’s years of support for genocidal policies against Palestinians and non-Jews is well documented. He’s too much of an idiot to realize that Trump’s base is full of Christian White Supremacist and Nazi sympathizers who hate him and all Jews, almost as much as they hate Muslims and Mexicans.
Sklaroff-
Given Trump’s terrible job in office (that gets worse every day), he will lose those Independents in a referendum on him.
The question is only whether voters will use Fitzpatrick as a surrogate for Trump. There is NO question that Trump as lost the support of those who “tilted” toward him, and only has his hard-core base of bigots and idiots left.
It is unnecessary to relitigate the anti-Israel assertions that d2 has composed; he has even joined the Jihadists in claiming that the day Israel was re-established [5/15/48] was a Nakba [“catastrophe”].
This is why he crassly accuses Jews of committing Genocide; this is why he claims The Donald’s political base is infested with people other than loyal-to-their-beliefs “Christian Coalition”-adherents [who, unlike d2, don’t hate Israelis]; and this is why he conflates [just like the best adherents of intersectionality such as Linda Sarsour] the policies regarding the Middle East [“Muslims” … actually people who are aligning against Islamists such as Iranians] and Illegals [“Mexicans” … actually, Central Americans].
Every day since 11/8/2016 has been replete with x-mas/hanukkah “presents” as reflected in polls that have reflected growing support for his MAGA-policies even among minorities [African-Americans and Hispanics]; thus, the postings of d2 are simply manifestations of the Trump Derangement Syndrome [and are best ignored].
You are such a blow hard fake doctor!!
Voter registration numbers in PA1 are deceiving. People hop back and forth over the Delaware River with employment or other opportunities, so significant numbers of registered Democrats are phantoms who have moved to or moved back to New Jersey. I work a poll that includes significant apartments and rental condominiums in Bucks and there are sometimes four or more seemingly unrelated people registered to the same one bedroom apartment address and only one ever seems to show up to vote.
Additionally, the Fitzpatricks have always gotten a large share of the blue collar Democrat vote in the lower end of Bucks. Bensalem, Middletown, The Southamptons, Falls and Warminster and so forth. These people often split their ballots and vote for the Fitzpatricks (Fitzpatrick’s 2016 margin of victory in Bucks was much larger than HRC’s). The Bucks Democrats can’t ever dependably herd the Central Bucks “Progressives” and the Lower Bucks blue collar socially conservative Democrats.
And in any event the Democrats are counting on a near Presidential Year turnout in a midterm year. It just doesn’t happen. People are fatigued by the constant outrage, and the Democrats’ victory in the Row Office races in 2018 has woken Republicans up.