PA10: ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research Poll: Rep. Perry 49 Scott 46

A new ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research poll shows incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) holding a slim lead over Democrat George Scott in the race for Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District. The poll has Perry leading Scott 49-46, while 4% remain undecided and 1% said another candidate.

ABC27 describes this race as a “close contest” between Perry and Scott with just a week until the election. 366 likely voters in the district were interviewed for this poll, 39% from Dauphin County, 36% from Cumberland County, and 25% from York County from Oct 19-21. The margin of error is +/- 5.2% at “the 95% confidence level.”  

The newly drawn 10th district went to President Trump by nearly 10 points in the 2016 election, but the polling shows mixed reviews for Trump. Trump still holds a +5 positive net approval rating in the district, with 48% approving of his job performance, 43% disapproving, 7% no opinion and 2% no response. However, when asked if the likely voters would prefer their Congressional representative to either champion the Trump agenda or to be a check on his policies, a majority of voters preferred the latter. 52% polled prefer that their member of Congress would “stand up to Trump and be a check and balance on his policies,” while 45% prefer their representative to “work closely with Trump to advance his agenda,” and 3% hold no opinion.  

Those polled were also nearly split down the middle on the current direction of the country. 46% believe the country is gotten on the wrong track, while 45% believe the country is going in the right direction, with 5% not responding and 4% that are undecided/no opinion.

A majority of those polled are registered as Republicans, although that margin thins out a bit when they were asked about how they see themselves while considering political issues.

53% polled said they were registered Republican, 38% were registered Democrats, 6% Independent, and 3% not responding to that question. When asked how they identify with political issues, 40% said they see themselves standing with Republicans, while Democrats and Independents were deadlocked at 30% each on how the likely voters identified as on political issues.  

58% polled were female and 42% were male.

This poll was conducted around the same time the New York Times/Siena College polled the district. Their poll shows the incumbent Republican also holding a slight lead of 2 points, 45-43.

FiveThirtyEight currently has the race listed as Leans Republican and the second closest Congressional race in the state of Pennsylvania.

The full data for the ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research can be found here.

October 30th, 2018 | Posted in Congress, Front Page Stories, Top Stories | 11 Comments

11 thoughts on “PA10: ABC27/Susquehanna Polling and Research Poll: Rep. Perry 49 Scott 46”

  1. StevenTodd says:

    Ahead by less than 60% of margin is known as a statistical dead heat. NYT’s margin has got to be at least 3.5, maybe 4, if typical. George #ScottNotPerry will take this one, if yard signs on private property are any indication.

    1. KDav says:

      Yard signs are not a good indicator.

      1. StevenTodd says:

        But this is:

        Republican former Senator Pat Vance, RN.

        Verbatim public endorsement tonight of Democrat George Scott for Congress over Republican incumbent #ScottNotPerry:

        “Much thought has been given in making my decision about who should represent our community in the new 10th Congressional District. As a registered nurse long active in healthcare issues, it appears the voices of professionals really need to be heard, especially on the subject of pre-existing conditions. We need to realize that people with pre-existing conditions have them through no fault of their own and it is cruel to allow their health to be affected because they cannot get insurance.
        Dropping the requirement that insurance policies cover maternal care is also very troublesome just because someone might not need it personally. It is a benefit to our entire community that pregnant women and the child they are carrying have insurance that provides proper care. It was not too many years ago that many insurance companies refused to cover maternal care because pregnancy was considered a pre-existing condition.
        During my time in the legislature, I served on the Health committees, and in the Senate was first Chair of the Aging Committee and later as Chair of the Health and Human Services Committee. I have paid intense attention to all issues involving insurance, aging and healthcare. Words do matter and so do votes cast by our elected officials. Party allegiance cannot take precedence over peoples’ healthcare needs. I was always fond of saying that courage in politics is a very rare commodity – now is the time to stand up for people’s healthcare needs. For that reason, I will be voting for George Scott to represent the new 10th Congressional District.”

  2. KDav says:

    Pa 1! Sorry

  3. KDav says:

    Despite people’s concerns, I sense this is where the race is at. I think the Dems are likely to win the US House. Not a guarantee since the R’s have gone scorched earth but likely. However, there will be a lot of meat left on the bone and CD’s like this and probably PA will be where they look to in the future. 3 reasons

    1. The economy is strong. It was inherited but that doesn’t matter.

    2. The Dems need more focus. Besides Trump, find 3 things and focus on those. Of course like health ins the R’s will blatantly lie like they are with pre-existing conditions. The D response has been weak.

    3. New leadership. Pelosi and Schumer should not be fronting the party anymore. If you want the young to be engaged, don’t litter the leadership with 70+ year old people who have had their turn. Find people who will convince people to turn out.

    So my prediction now is that the D’s gain 27 in the House, the R’s net 2 in the Senate (Beto doesn’t win – sorry) and the D’s gains 5 govs.

    Yes, a good night if I am anywhere near right. Not great though.

    1. jjcnpa says:

      yep I think you are spot on. It’s not a wave and the bungled Kavanaugh issue is to blame

      1. KDav says:

        Having said all the above the Kav issue has now seem to retreated and, unfortunately, recent events have taken hold now. I sense a shifting towards the D’s especially in affluent areas where Trump’s remaking of the Constitution via exec order may not be very popular. So, we will see. I still think the House goes blue but I have learned there are very few certainties in life.

        Here is one though – the collective POS’s known as Lou Barletta and Scott Wagner and going to lose in epic fashion.

  4. Dennis Owens Dossier says:

    Brought to you by the firm that polls out of a Wendy’s parking lot and the Ike Turner is ABC Affiliates. The results are fitting of both.

  5. CentralPADem says:

    They only called landlines!!!!!!!!

    1. KDav says:

      Is that true? I don’t even have a landline anymore and I am 53 years old. Many people I know in my age bracket gave up on their land lines.

    2. jjcnpa says:

      That would be even betternews for Dems because only older votes have landlines and they tend to be heavy GOP, esp in central PA

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