City Councilman Bill Peduto has taken the lead in the Democratic primary for Pittsburgh Mayor, according to the latest poll from Keystone Analytics. He takes 38% to former Auditor General Jack Wagner’s 36%.
It’s the first poll in weeks to show Peduto ahead. Although the results are within the margin of error, significantly, it’s the first poll to put him above what had looked like a 30% ceiling.
State Rep. Jake Wheatley took 5%; activist AJ Richardson took less than 1%.
The Harrisburg-based pollster surveyed 401 likely Democratic primary voters from April 22-23. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.89%.
It’s a 10 point swing for Peduto since the same firm conducted a poll just three weeks ago. That showed Wagner ahead 38% to 30%.
Since then, both candidates have gone on television.
The latest poll shows both top candidates with nearly identical name ID: 65% favorable, 17% unfavorable for Peduto and 64% favorable and 17% unfavorable for Wagner.
Peduto leads by 7% among women; Wagner leads men by 9%.
The pollster cited a shift toward Peduto among older voters: “Peduto has a 10 point advantage among 18-49 year-olds, while Wagner holds a 1 point lead among 50-64 year olds. The race has tightened considerably among those aged 65 and over, with Wagner holding a slight 4 point advantage over Peduto. Only three weeks ago, Wagner was up in that demographic by 16-points.”
That’s significant because the average Pittsburgh primary voter is at or nearing retirement. 40% of respondents were 65 and older. 37% were 50-64 and just 23% were ages 18 to 49. A full demographic breakdown of poll respondents is here.
Voters are optimistic about the city. 52% said Pittsburgh is heading in the right direction, while 28% said it’s heading in the wrong direction.
H/t Keystone Politics on reporting today’s poll.