Playbook

11/1: The Final Weekend

By: Steve Ulrich
November 1, 2024
8:10 AM

🍂 Hello, November. Remember to turn your clocks BACK one hour on Saturday night.

PA Weather
🌤️ Vandergrift | Gradual Clearing, 60
🌤️ Columbia Cross Roads | Mostly Sunny, 61
🌤️ Oley | Gradual Clearing, 76

🎙️ Keystone Candidate Forum. Hear Auditor General Tim DeFoor and House Republican Leader Bryan Cutler. (PoliticsPA)

📻 Weekend Listening. The Economist: “A Look at Pennsylvania, the Keystone to Winning America’s Election.” New York Times: “The United States of Pennsylvania.”

👀 What We’re Seeing. Marist Poll: Harris 50-48, Casey 50-48. Suffolk Poll: Tie 49-49. Northampton: Trump 50-48. Erie: Tie 48-48.

🎂 Happy Birthday. Early cake and candles for Rep. Thomas Kutz (Sun.)

🗞️ Political News From THE Swing State. Where can you find all the latest news on what’s happening in Keystone State politics? Sign up for the PoliticsPA Playbook. We’ll deliver all the latest headlines in an easy-to-read format every weekday at 8 AM. And it’s free. Add your name to the list and subscribe now.

Top Story

1. Pennsylvania Voters Worry About the Toxicity of Politics

“In a tight presidential race, Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, will very likely decide the winner. And the state, which Donald J. Trump won in 2016 and President Biden won in 2020 by narrow margins, is up for grabs.

That’s clear in Berks County, which lies about 60 miles northwest of Philadelphia where flourishing Democratic suburbs melt into conservative, rural Pennsylvania.

The mountains and low hills that make up most of the county are sprinkled with small towns and farms, while the county seat, Reading, is Pennsylvania’s fourth-largest city, with a substantial Latino majority.” (New York Times)

Elsewhere

‘Disgraceful’ Trump Puerto Rico Scandal ‘Tipping Point’ for Latino Voters in Swing State. “In eastern Pennsylvania’s largely Hispanic city of Allentown, residents have been left fuming over a racist joke made about Puerto Rico at a Donald Trump rally, with some locals describing the incident as a “tipping point.”” (Express US)

With His Legacy On the Line – And Harris Keeping Him At a Distance – President Biden Returns to Pennsylvania. “The president will be in Philly on Friday and Scranton on Saturday. His vice president is not expected to be in the state either day.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)

Suspicious Voter Registration Forms in Pennsylvania Linked to Arizona City Councilman’s Company. “Two Pennsylvania counties have identified an Arizona-based company as the source of thousands of last-minute voter registration applications that they are investigating.” (Penn Capital-Star)

York County DA’s Office Explains Multi-Level Investigation Into Election Materials Dropoff. (York Dispatch)

Europe’s Greens Ask Jill Stein to Pull Out of U.S. Election to Prevent Trump Victory. “Green politicians from across Europe on Friday called on U.S. Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein to withdraw from the race for the White House and endorse Democrat Kamala Harris instead.” (POLITICO)

State

2. Election 2024 Preview: Attorney General

“With a budget of $144 million and a staff of 1,060 prosecutors, attorneys, investigators, and other staff, the Office of Attorney General is, at its core, the law firm that represents Pennsylvania’s vast government and defends its laws in court.

Democrat Eugene DePasquale, Republican Dave Sunday, Eric Settle of the Forward Party, Rob Cowburn of the Libertarian Party, Justin Magill of the Constitution Party, and Richard Weiss of the Green Party are the six candidates in the contest.” (PoliticsPA)

Elsewhere

Total Spending in Casey v. McCormick Senate Race Approaches $300M. “Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race has become the political equivalent of what the Cold Warriors used to know as mutual assured destruction — the principle that any nuclear attack will be countered to such a degree that both the attacker and defender will be annihilated.” (PennLive)

The Presidential Election Will Likely Come Down to Pennsylvania. And It’s Really Close. “Suffering anxiety and profound uncertainty about the upcoming election on Tuesday? Let me offer you this bit of comfort: No one else knows what’s going to happen, either.” (WESA Politics)

Why This ‘Ultra Competitive’ House Race in the Lehigh Valley Could Predict the Presidency. “Susan Wild and Ryan Mackenzie are employing dueling strategies to try to tie each other to unpopular national figures and causes in the final days of the race to represent Pennsylvania’s 7th District.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)

Republicans Ask Pennsylvania Court to Put On Hold Decision On Mail Ballot Envelope Rule. “The state and national GOP filed an emergency request that that justices put on hold a Commonwealth Court ruling that envelopes voters use to send in mail ballots don’t need to have been accurately hand-dated, as required under state law.” (AP)

Pennsylvania’s Early-Voting Option is a Mess, But Very Popular. “A cumbersome pre-election voting option in the largest battleground state caused frustration, long lines and claims of voter suppression earlier this week.” (CNN)

Around The Commonwealth

3. Election 2024 Preview: Auditor General

“The auditor general monitors how public dollars are spent to catch waste, fraud, and graft. The office does this by conducting financial audits and monitoring whether state-funded programs are doing what they’re supposed to.

Republican Tim DeFoor is the incumbent and faces Democratic challenger Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, Libertarian Party candidate Alan ‘Bob’ Goodrich, Constitution Party candidate Reece Smith, and American Solidarity Party’s Eric K. Anton.” (PoliticsPA)

Pittsburgh Is Now the Center of the Political Universe. “This midtier city is best known for steel, football and being the oft-claimed birthplace of ketchup. Now it presides at the vortex of America’s presidential election.” (Wall Street Journal)

PA’s Presidential Result Could Hinge On Undecided Voters. They Aren’t Thrilled With Their Choices. “With the presidential race in Pennsylvania deadlocked for months, the undecided voter has been the Holy Grail — not only for the candidates, but also for pollsters and the media.” (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Scott Perry, Janelle Stelson Present Stark Choice to Voters in Central PA Congressional Race. “For Perry, the Republican, it’s a battle for political survival; but it’s also got a lot of national eyes on it as one of about 30 races across the country that are expected to decide whether Republicans keep majority control of the House of Representatives, or it flips to the Democrats.” (PennLive)

Democrats Are Suddenly Feeling Great About Philadelphia. Will It Be Enough?. ““Philadelphia is the most important county in the most important state in the most important election of our lifetimes,” Pennsylvania Democrats Political Director John Brady told NOTUS.” (NOTUS)

Two Years After Tight Election Set Off Power Struggle in PA House, Both Sides Predict Victory. “The last time all 203 seats in the state House were up for election, the result was a multi-month dispute over control of the chamber that bogged down the start of a new legislative session.” (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Editorial

4. What’s On Your Mind

A Second Trump Term Comes With Unacceptable Risks. (The Economist)
Trump is a Fascist, Though Many Voters Don’t Want to Hear It. (Trudy Rubin)
How Risky Is a Trump Second Term? (Wall Street Journal)
I Visited a Deeply Divided Pennsylvania – And Found Republicans Repeating An Enormous Lie. (Oliver Laughland)
I’m Bob Casey: This Is Why I Want Pennsylvania’s Vote For Senate. (Bob Casey)
I’m Dave McCormick: This Is Why I Want Pennsylvania’s Vote For Senate. (Dave McCormick)
Voting in Pennsylvania With My Trump-Loving Father. (Katie Krzaczek)
The Presidential Election May Be the Super Bowl, But the Races People Often Overlook Are the Real Game. (Lisa Deeley)
Voter Registration Update: PA GOP Carries Momentum Into Critically Close Election Day. (Nick Field)
Why Younger Generations Need to be Educated In Politics, Cast Vote. (Teresa Phelan)
How to Persuade Gen Z Voters. (Gordon Arlen)
Lack of Planning From Counties and PA Department of State Should Not Create a Crisis For Voters. (Rep. Seth Grove)

1 Thing

5. Ping! Harris, Trump Are Blowing Up Our Phones With Political Texts In Campaign’s Last Days

“For the millions of Americans on the radar of the Kamala Harris and Donald Trump campaigns and those of their allies, the apocalypse is only a text message away.

The very future of the republic is at stake, some of the texts say and many others imply. But you — yes, YOU, Sally, Jose or insert-your-first-name here — can save it. For as little as $7.

Texting is a cheap and easy way to reach potential voters and donors, without all the rules meant to keep traditional paid broadcast advertising a bit honest. Both sides are working the texting pipeline aggressively. In the last days of the campaign, the pinging of phones can be relentless.” (Allentown Morning Call)

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