Just as Pennsylvania’s 2010 races, opponents, and story lines appeared to be set and ready to play out, Republicans in SEPA turned the tables in the blink of an eye.

First, GOP gubernatorial candidate Jim Gerlach dropped from the race and re-entered his competitive 6th District seat, causing a stir among the bevy of Republicans vying for the seat.  Howard Cohen and Scott Zelov quickly bowed out of the race, but state Rep. Curt Schroder and businessman Steve Welch haven’t stepped aside … yet.  Welch, who has poured more than $500,000 into his own campaign (and has promised to keep spending), already conceded his 7th District bid to former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan, and won’t be happy about walking away. But the NRCC’s renewed support for Gerlach helps  assure he’ll be the guy to take on Doug Pike or Manan Trivedi.

Will Welch and Schroder gently step aside, or will Gerlach find out his fleeting gubernatorial campaign came at the cost of a potentially rough primary?

Though we didn’t count on Gerlach running for re-election, we knew that the 6th and 7th would be the most compelling races in PA (and perhaps nationwide).  What we didn’t count on was a serious challenge for Patrick Murphy (D) in the nearby 8th district (comprising Bucks County), but that could change this week.  Murphy, who toppled incumbent Mike Fitzpatrick in ’06 (a good year for Democrats), should be ready for a rematch against the Bucks County Republican, a tougher opponent than ’08 challenger Tom Manion.  In a year that promises to be rough for Democrats, Fitzpatrick (who lost by just 1500 votes in ’06)  will force Murphy to prove his mettle in just his second re-election campaign.

All this flury of activity in the congressional races is a clear indication it’s now or never for those men and women considering a campaign. Will this week bring more news on that front? Former U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan appears to be inching closer to a run against incumbent Jason Altmire (D), and rumors that another ex-U.S Attorney, Tom Marino, will jump in against U.S. Rep. Chris Carney (D) continue to swirl. Either candidate gives the GOP a legitimate challenger against Democratic incumbents.

Finally, a little news on the gubernatorial front. Democratic front-runner Dan Onorato will release his economic revitalization plan Tuesday, a policy paper likely to be closely examined by the media and analysts alike. The Allegheny County Chief Executive said Monday he’s already raised more than $8 million, an impressive number that cements his status as the favorite. But more important than fundraising for Onorato is his ability to convince voters he knows how to fix the state’s ailing economy. Whether Tuesday’s release helps provide the solid policy base to make that argument is important.