We’re just about 10 weeks from the state’s May 18 primary — amazing, huh? It’s hard to believe some of the campaigns we’ve discussed for almost a year suddenly are reaching their ends.
Speaking of the home stretch, there’s been increased chatter lately about at least one of the candidates hitting the airwaves soon. Arlen Specter has more than $8 million cash on hand already, so it makes sense that he could run the year’s first ad soon. Most operatives peg airing statewide TV ads to cost about $1 million a week.
Many Democrats say they expect Specter’s campaign to run a positive ad first in an attempt to raise his abysmal re-election numbers, although attacks against opponent Joe Sestak likely won’t be far behind. Also, don’t rule out Dan Onorato and his more than $6 million on hand hitting the airwaves soon.
Tomorrow morning, the latest Quinnipiac University poll will be released, giving Pa. political junkies a fresh look at the Senate race, as well as Pennsylvanians’ feelings on President Obama and “trust in government.”
Of course, this week the Democratic and gubernatorial primaries take a back seat to the 12th Congressional District. Democratic delegates are set to meet on Saturday to recommend which candidate be placed on the special election ballot, and already the behind-the-scenes maneuvering is rampant. The race increasingly looks like a two-person contest between former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer and John Murtha’s district director, Mark Critz, with Cambria County Controller Ed Cernic Jr. possibly playing the spoiler. Critz has won potentially crucial endorsements in the past week, gaining support from Murtha’s widow, Joyce Murtha, and former Lieutenant Governor Mark Singel.
But the real action might occur between Saturday’s straw poll meeting, which counts only as a recommendation, and Monday’s vote by the party’s Executive Committee, which officially nominates a candidate. Party leaders could intervene and support someone who didn’t receive the recommendation but they believe would make a stronger candidate against the Republicans — particularly if Saturday’s straw poll vote isn’t a blowout. The Executive Committee, made up of members from across Pennsylvania, traditionally follows the local recommendation, but things might be different for a race this important.
The Republicans won’t select their candidate until March 11, giving businessman Tim Burns and former Army officer Bill Russell more time to campaign for the job. Burns seems the favorite for the nomination now after picking up conservative blog RedState’s endorsement and winning the first county committee vote between the two men.
Also, expect some discussion of the National Journal’s House Ratings breaking down the liberal and conservative tendencies of every member of Congress. Already, observers have taken note of Jason Altmire’s conservative rating (# 196 in the House) compared with his liberal ranking (# 235). The state’s highest ranking liberals were Philadelphia’s Reps. Brady and Fattah (#s 22 and 30, respectively) and Rep. Pitts (Lancaster) was the highest ranked conservative (# 38).
