New Public Policy Polling data shows incumbent Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) only four points ahead of his Democratic challenger, George Scott.
A poll of voters from the new PA-10 show Perry polling at 45 points to Scott’s 41 points, with 14 percent of voters undecided.
The poll revealed a 33 percent favorability rating for Perry, with a 36 percent unfavorable view and 31 percent not sure. President Donald Trump, meanwhile enjoys a 49 percent job approval rating in the new district, with 48 percent disapproving, according to the poll.
Scott’s campaign can’t start celebrating yet, however, as he is still largely unknown to the voters. Data showed him with a favorability rating of 20 percent and unfavorable at 17 percent, with 62 percent of voters unsure.
The 654 voters were polled between June 8 and 10, and show the incumbent likely to face to tough campaign toward re-election, polling analyst Jim Williams said.
“Scott Perry is underwater on favorability and in a direct match-up with George Scott, this poll is within the margin of error” of +/- 4.1 percent, Williams said. “Scott has a lot of running room before November. With over 60 percent essentially not knowing him well, he is still at 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup.”
Our own rankings show the seat among Pennsylvania’s potentially vulnerable, as the new district had shifted from Trump +22 to Trump +9, though it fell a spot from our previous rankings.
In a press release announcing the results, Scott said he is excited to be closing in but recognizes he has a lot of work to do.
“We are already bringing our campaign to Republicans, Independents and Democrats who want a different approach in Congress,” he said.
Perry is a three-term congressman in a district encompassing all of Dauphin County and large portions of Cumberland and York counties.
Scott is a pastor and veteran from Dillsburg who made waves when he burned an assault rifle in an early campaign ad.
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5 Responses
Unfortunately for George Scott these numbers also say there are 60+ percent undecideds, which means he has to win the undecideds by more than 50% to win (independents by a wide margin.) Thats what the money is supposed to be for, and if Perry kicks into gear on fundraising, he’ll be able to out communicate GS who’s only going to post $80,000-110,00 this quarter. The NRA and other groups are going to spend sognificantly to keep conservative stalwart Perry in this seat,, and though GS doesn’t need to out-spend all of them, he needs to be within an order of magnitude. Unless GS kicks up his fundraising, he’ll dry up as institutions see his fundraising as weak and his star fading. He already hasn’t impressed anyone with his numbers, and unless he gets close to DCCC $300k minimum quarter, national money will stay out of the race.
At the end of the day, Perry’s positives and anti-scott negatives will likely command. Barring a crazy blue wave that we didnt see in 2017 in South Central PA, Scott’s message will drown and he won’t be able to compete with the undecideds. His turnout operation (street money) in the primary won’t do a lick of good in the General and his rinky dink comms and field will kill him.
Perry squeaks it out, imo.
I’ve lived most of my 52 years here. Two points, at least as surprising and directly related to the headline:
“President Donald Trump, meanwhile enjoys a 49 percent job approval rating in the new district, with 48 percent disapproving.”
A GOP administration doing this poorly, and so early in, is absolutely unheard of in the capitol region. Even with the new lines.
George Scott’s “favorability rating of 20 percent and unfavorable at 17 percent” is equally unheard of here. That means that only about a fifth are a lock for straight ticket GOP vote. I’d say that is about half the norm, while the one sixth straight Dem ticket voters is pretty much in line with past history.
Something huge is changing here. And it is long overdue.
By all means, Scott Perry. Pretty please keep falling right in line with TheRump’s lies and hatred. We can only hope that Barletta does as well, which is pretty much a given.
I am sure that Perry has done a poll and has the same numbers. He is in trouble. Trump ain’t going to save him.
Who paid for the poll? The last time Politics PA ran a story about a PPP poll, they buried the fact that Congressman Kelly’s opponent paid for the poll. If PPP says the race is within the margin of error, the Republican is up at least 10. Politics PA should be more responsible with how they present stories like this.
Lol