At long last, the state of Pa. has compiled and made available its data from the 2012 election.
President Obama won Pennsylvania on the whole by 5.4%, he lost 13 of 18 congressional district – including 5 that he won in 2008.
Even using the current, 2011 congressional lines, Obama would have won PA-6, PA-7, PA-8, PA-15 and PA-16 in 2008. But he lost all 5 of those suburban Philadelphia districts in November, albeit.
Had GOP congressional-based plans been in place in 2012, Obama would have lost the state to Mitt Romney 13 electoral votes to 7.
The numbers below come courtesy of DailyKos.
Some of these numbers were available in November directly from the county boards of election. Other counties have ridiculously onerous request requirements and refuse to post results online (we’re looking at you, Delaware County).
DailyKos is a liberal website, but its record for election results data analysis is widely respected. To wit: asked in November about finding the results, one of Pa.’s top Republican operatives told PoliticsPA, “Wait for dos to post precinct data results or for DailyKos to compile them.”
You can find their data on past election results by congressional district here.
The Democrat who did the best compared to Obama: Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Allegheny), 8.9%.
The Republican who did the best compared to Romney: Rep. Pat Meehan (R-Delaware), plus 9%.
Without further ado, here are the numbers:
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6 Responses
thanks Keegan most interesting.
Pat Meehan has sold out to the unions as has the entire Republican delegation Penna House and Penna Senate. It is unusual to see the unions own a Republican delegation. DelCo is an anomaly.
Dave Diano Is there evidence that purged voters are real voters. My daughter has moved to Texas and is still registered to vote in Penna. Removing her from roles does not remove a real voter. What is wrong with purging registered nonvoters?
In addition to gerrymandering, a big reason for the PA7 swan song is the ineffective leadership of one of Politics PA’s top County Chairman and a loser of a congressional candidate Politics PA declared one of the worst of the cycle. Dems realized how much they missed Joe Sestak or a candidate with similar (or even slightly less) pedigree on the ticket in PA7. Having Sestak may have helped offset some of the county leadership fails in the District…having one of the worst congressional candidates of the cycle compounded withe weak to non-existent leadership could not be overcome…even with a top of the ticket featuring Obama and Casey, and state row office all stars like Kane, McCord and DePasquale.
Correction….
total registration sits at 8.25 million. Only 250 thousand were purged since the election.
However, my point that there were about 300 thousand fewer registered voters at the time of election remains true.
The problem with comparing these numbers is that registration has changed dramatically in the state since 2008.
At the time of the 2008 election, there were 8.76 million registered voters in the state.
In 2009, only 8.47 million
In 2010 there were 8.45 million
In 2011 onl 8.17 milion
By the time we got to 2012, registration climbed to 8.48 million, which is 300,000 BELOW 2008 registration.
The new FEB 2013 voter registration file purged voter records and total registration currently sits at 7.97 million. YES, 500,000 voters were purged from the rolls in the past few months.
If you look at Obama’s statewide result, you see that Romney got roughly the same number of voters that McCain did, and Obama got several hundred thousand fewer than in 2008. TOTAL votes were down, just like total registration. The Democrats registered 180,000 fewer voters in 2012 than in 2008. (Also, they registered fewer voters 2009-2011 than 2005-2007).
I had been looking for that number; in PA-12, Obama lost to Romney by 17%. Going forward, I doubt that Dems can find a candidate with the geographic and political appeal of Mark Critz (who only lost by 3 and a half). In my opinion, look for Keith Rothfus to keep that seat for the foreseeable future.
The 15th CD (Charlie Dent) is not at all suburban Philadelphia. It is most of the Lehigh Valley westward to include portions of Berks, Lebanon, and Dauphin Counties.