Is Bob Casey vulnerable for reelection? Our newest Pennsylvania poll provides data you can use to argue it either way. On one hand he has weak approval numbers- only 39% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 35% who disapprove- you can certainly get defeated with those kinds of numbers. On the other hand he leads seven potential opponents for next year that we tested against him by anywhere from 12 to 23 points- you’ll pretty much never get defeated with those kinds of numbers.
My sense is that Casey is not terribly vulnerable. Here’s the thing about his low approval numbers- Democrats aren’t in love with him. Just 55% approve of him and 22% disapprove. Generally you’ll see a Senator closer to the 70% or 80% mark within his own party so his lack of approval from the party base is what’s keeping Casey’s approval number under 40%. But even though they don’t necessarilylike Casey, Democrats are still perfectly willing to vote for him- he gets 78-80% of the Democratic vote in head to head match ups against the seven Republicans we tested. And his 19% approval number with Republicans, although it may not sound like much, is actually a pretty decent amount of crossover support in this highly polarized political climate.
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Allyson Schwartz could beat him. His influence has been a big reason for “establishment” democrats like Hillary Clinton and Arlen Specter losing primaries to unproven cowards who then try to force “Unity” on the party’s loyal voters. Put ANY traditional Democrat on that Primary Ballot and Casey will have his hands full. Remember, he can only win if he keeps a low profile. Challenge him with someone other than a hacking “Progressive” and some No-Show Democrats might just vote him out.