For the third consecutive poll, Vice President Kamala Harris has received more support than former President Donald Trump in a survey of 1,793 likely Pennsylvania voters.

The latest Quinnipiac University poll showed Harris with a 50-47% advantage in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, while maintaining that three percentage-point bump over Trump in a choice of multiple candidates (48-45%). In the latter, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., polled at 4% – his second consecutive survey result under five percent.

“With all five contenders factored in, Harris has an edge overall, with strong support from women in must-win Pennsylvania,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

It is the third straight poll that has shown Harris with an advantage, showing that the supposed “honeymoon” period has not come to a close.

“It may be a honeymoon, but here comes the Democratic Convention which will surely provide a bounce for the ticket,” said Malloy. “Right now at least, the momentum and the edge is for the Harris/Walz ticket”

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. polled over 50 percent for the fourth time in five polls, receiving 52 percent support from the respondents. That’s eight percent higher than Republican challenger Dave McCormick, although the 44% represents the highest recorded by a neutral polling service since he received 46% from Marist in early June.

“Eight points is a nice lead for Casey,” said Malloy. “McCormick is handicapped by a lack on name recognition and a ticking clock, so there is a lot of work to do.”

• Crosstabs

President

Harris continues to pull strong numbers from women (54-41%), Black (85-9%) and white voters with a college degree (67-28%). Independents favored the vice president by a 46-42% count, as did those 18-34 years of age (48-37%), 35-49 (57-35%) and those 65 and up (50-46%).

Trump continues to get support from men (49-42%), whites without a college degree (60-33%) and those between the ages of 50-64 (54-41%).

Three in five Keystone State respondents (60%) believe that Trump is not honest, while 46% believe Harris is honest.

“Trump scores poorly on most key character traits including empathy, but none so glaringly as honesty, where Harris leads by a large margin; although they are perceived equally for their leadership skills,” added Malloy.

The “enthusiasm” gap is narrowing, as 70% of the likely voters said they were very enthusiastic in their support of Trump to 66% for Harris.

But Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate made 59% of those surveyed more enthusiastic about her candidacy, compared to just 43% that fel the same about Trump’s selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance.

“The long-term impact is speculation, but the math is clear: Walz helps Harris a lot more than Vance helps Trump,” added Malloy.

U.S. Senate

Casey, the three-term incumbent, seems to have a lock on his party’s voters with 93% indicating support for the Scranton native. McCormick does not have to same handle on the GOP with 85% support.

Men (49-47%), whites without a college degree (57-38%) and 50-64 year olds (52-44%) favor McCormick. Similar to Harris, Casey draws strong numbers from women (57-40%), Blacks (83-13%), whites with a college degree (68-30%), and among younger voters. he has a 15% advantage with those between 18-34 and 23% among those 35-49 (59-36%).

Favorability

• Harris -2 (46-48)
• Trump -9 (44-53)
• Walz +7 (36-29)
• Vance -10 (35-45)
• Kennedy -25 (23-48)
• Casey +7 (42-35)
• McCormick -2 (30-32)
• Gov. Josh Shapiro +24 (53-29)
• Sen. John Fetterman +5 (41-36)

Harris has a plus-9 rating (52-43) among women and a minus-15 among (39-54). Blacks overwhelmingly see the VP in a favorable light (77-13, +64), while white voters give her a minus-8 (44-52).

On the flip side, Trump is a minus-17 with women (40-57) and a plus-1 (49-48) with males. Whites with a college degree give him a minus-42 (28-70), while those without a sheepskin provide a plus-24 (60-36). Blacks send back a minus-71 (14-85), while younger voters also have the former president underwater at minus-22 for those 18-34 and minus-28 for those 35-49.

Casey is viewed in a favorable light by Blacks (+45), voters ages 35-49 (+19) and women (+16). McCormick’s top numbers come from whites without a four-year degree (+13) and those between 50-64 (+5).

Shapiro, who was a leading candidate to be selected as Harris’ running mate, showed strong numbers across the board with only white men without a 4-year degree (-8) seeing him unfavorably. Women gave the first-term governor a +34 rating, while Blacks came in at +58.

Most Important Issue

Given a list of 12 issues and asked which is the most important one in deciding who to vote for in the election for president, 32 percent say the economy, followed by preserving democracy in the United States (25 percent) and immigration (10 percent).

• GOP: Economy (50%), Immigrations (20%)
• Dems: Preserving Democracy (42%), Abortion (16%), Economy (13%)
• Indy: Economy (33%), Preserving Democracy (23%), Immigration (10%)

Job Approval

• President Joe Biden -14 (41-55)
• Shapiro +31 (59-28)
• Casey +9 (47-38)
• Fetterman +11 (48-37)

Mail Ballots

Nearly 1-in-4 respondents (23%) indicated that they would cast a mail/absentee ballot with seniors (65+) showing the most favoritism (34%). Democrats prefer mail ballots more than Republicans by a 34-14% tally.