Quinnipiac Poll: Casey Leads Smith 51-32; Cracks Magic Number

Bob Casey has done it. For the first time in years, more than 50 percent of PA voters say they approve of the job he’s doing as Senator. Today’s Quinnipiac poll has several bits of good news for the freshman Senator and is the latest to show him winning re-election by a significant margin.

Until today, that number has generally been net positive for Casey in polls, but short of the 50 percent mark that indicates a safe incumbent.

By a 49 to 32 percent margin, voters said Casey deserves to be re-elected, and they have a favorable view of him by a margin of 45 to 23 percent.

He leads uh, what’s his name, 51 to 32 in the general election matchup. Tom Smith, the freshman Senator’s opponent, still had work to do to introduce himself to voters; 71 percent of respondents didn’t know enough about him to form an opinion. His name ID trails Casey’s by 41 points.

Q-Pac also does a regional breakdown. Smith leads Casey 43 to 41 in central PA, but the Senator runs the table in the rest of the state.

Philly: Casey 65, Smith 12
Allegheny: Casey 61, Smith 25
Northeast: Casey 60, Smith 25
Northwest: Casey 53, Smith 35
Southwest: Casey 52, Smith 25
Southeast: Casey 45, Smith 39
Central: Casey 41, Smith 43

The silver lining for Smith? Of the folks that do know of him, he’s viewed favorably 17 percent to 10. And part of Casey’s wide lead comes from his support among Republicans, voters likely to peel off as campaign messaging begins (38 percent of GOPers approve of Casey’s job performance, 29 percent say he deserves re-election, and 19 percent say they plan to vote for him).

Likewise, in several regions where Casey is strong, President Obama is weak (southwest, northwest, central). That means Smith’s tactic of connecting the two is probably his best way forward at this point.

Furthermore, it’s surprising to see Smith so close to Casey in the southeast (the Senator leads 45 to 39, with only 10 percent undecided).

But the overall trend favors Casey.

Several polls over the past two weeks have painted a similar picture of the race. Casey leads by double digits and has a 30 point plus name ID advantage in 3 of 4: today’s Quinnipiac; a Franklin & Marshall poll released on June 6 (Casey 41, Smith 21 head to head, Casey 71, Smith 23 in name ID); and a Public Policy Polling survey released on May 23 (Casey 49, Smith 33 head to head, Casey 77, Smith 45 in name ID).

The lone exception is Rasmussen. Their poll from May 24 showed Casey leading 48 to Smith’s 41, and Smith with more substantial name ID, 73 percent, though still trailing Casey’s 91 percent.

Quinnipiac University surveyed 997 registered voters from June 5 – 10 via live interviews on landlines and cell phones. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

June 12th, 2012 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Senate, Top Stories | 12 Comments

12 thoughts on “Quinnipiac Poll: Casey Leads Smith 51-32; Cracks Magic Number”

  1. Isaac L. says:

    Mr. Guzzardi – I take exception with your rude and ignorant comments as a young person who is happy to live in Pennsylvania. If you don’t like it, get the hell out and stop bothering us with your unproductive drivel. If, on the other hand, you’d like to stop whining like some impotent, entitled brat and actually roll up your sleeves to help make things better, then by all means, stay. But your kind of ignorant blathering isn’t helping anyone. Pennsylvania is a great place to live and work, even if it doesn’t meet the standards of your ridiculous, far right utopia, which apparently doesn’t let you see just how moderate this state is. I’m sure Texas would be glad to have you.

  2. Rick says:

    I first want to point out that we are five months from the election and most people haven’t even started paying the least bit attention to our senate race. This race will tighten as we get closer, there is no question.
    Also, it drives me nuts that people continue to call Senator Casey a “conservative”. He has voted with President Obama 98% of the time. In most circumstances, that would be considered a rubber stamp for the democratic president. A few examples for the non-believers: Senator Casey was given a 100% by the NARAL Pro-Choice America, yet calls himself Pro-Life. He was given a liberal rating of 27% by the Chamber of Commerce (Obama actually scored more conservative). Casey received an 87% rating from the ACLU and an “A” from the National Education Association. On these two issues, he again scored the same or more liberal than President Obama.
    The list goes on and on and it just drives me nuts that instead of looking at the facts, people just assume Senator Bob Casey is a conservative. I hope Tom Smith points out Bob Casey’s liberal stances, because if he gets that message across, there is no doubt Casey’s career will be brought to an end this November.

  3. Alex Hamilton says:

    3 of the 4 polls cited are essentially heavily-weighted towards democrats and poll only registered voters. Rasmussen is the only reputable poll mentioned.

  4. bobguzzardi says:

    Most definitely not good news for either Tom Smith or Mitt Romney; how likely is it that a Casey Voter split ticket and vote Romney? Little, in my opinion.

    The NYTimes has a very clever and cool graphic that shows Obama shellacking Romney in the Electoral College. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map

    All the headlines speak nationally but drilling it down, state by state in the electoral college, Obama wins. Too bad. Taxmaggedon is coming and that will impact every household’s disposable income and crush growth and Pennsylvania’s Pension bomb has not yet hit yet…another two years and the Tax Makers will feel real pain while public sector unions rake in the taxpayer loot.

    From the bankruptcy of the USPS, to failure to address Entitlements ( and it does not seem likely that anyone under 40 will be getting Social Security or Medicare, at least, at levels we now know it because there is no more money) or the Debt and Deficit.

    The Progressives think more taxes and more government will solve the problem. Yet, it would not seem that more taxes and more government would grow the economy, create jobs and raise our standard of living.

    The good news is that Texas, North and South Carolina are growing with more jobs and a lower cost of living, meaning a higher standard of living.

    Young people are abandoning the Pennsylvania ship; only the dumb ones stay here. So very sad and so unnecessary.

    The Pennsylvania Republican needs to be ashamed of selling out its base.

  5. David Diano says:

    Blair-
    Not only was Casey Sr an anti-abortion loon, like yourself, but he ran a dirty ad campaign. I was so disgusted with the negativity of his ads, that I couldn’t vote for him.

    Woman have the right to control their bodies and end their pregnancies. Get over it.

  6. Kevin says:

    Face it, Blair’s right, 71% of voters might not know Smith, but 71% of voters just hear “Casey” and answer “favorable,” without even asking which Casey (Bob Sr.? Casey Jones? Casey Stengel?).

  7. John says:

    I trust people will take solace in this poll that Senator Casey is secure by reading the headline that he leads Tom Smith by 19 points.

    Reading further we see, “His name ID trails Casey’s by 41 points.” Reading further we see “19 percent (GOP) say they plan to vote for him.” Casey has lost three percent of the GOP voters in roughly a month.

  8. Robo says:

    Crack is whack Blair, crack is whack!

  9. Blair says:

    Casey Sr. was a Democrat I could vote for given his stance on protecting life! God bless him.

  10. David Diano says:

    Blair-
    Not me. I couldn’t stand his father to the point where he’s one of the few Democrats that I refused to vote for.

  11. Blair says:

    Voters simply confuse Casey Jr. for his father.

  12. David Diano says:

    “Of the folks that do know of him, he’s viewed favorably 17 percent to 10″

    That’s not really a silver lining

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