Quinnipiac Poll: Clinton 42% Trump 41%

Hillary-DonaldHillary Clinton retains a one point lead over Donald Trump in the Keystone State.

That’s the finding of the latest Quinnipiac Poll, which has the same margin as their survey from May.

Clinton receives 42% of the vote in a two-way contest with Trump while the GOP nominee gets 41%. The Democratic nominee could probably use the endorsement of her former rival Bernie Sanders, though, as he came out with a 47-40 advantage over Trump.

Quinnipiac also included Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein in a separate question. When these two were included Clinton got 39% and Trump 36%. Johnson and Stein took 9% and 6% respectively.

Demographics

In the head-to-head matchup, Clinton leads with the following groups: Democrats (82/7), Non-whites (66/15), women (50/34), those with a college degree (48/38), white women (47/39), 18 to 34 year-olds (45/32), 65 year-olds and older (45/41), 35 to 49 year-olds (41/40).

Meanwhile Trump leads with the following groups: Republicans (78/7), white men (56/28), men (50/33), whites (47/38), those without a college degree (43/39), independents (42/34), 50-64 year-olds (45/42).

The gender gap in this poll is thirty-three points, which is down a bit from the forty point difference last month.

Favorability

The reason Johnson and Stein do so well for third-party candidates is likely because Hillary and Donald aren’t particularly well liked.  

Just 41% have a favorable opinion of Clinton (22% strongly, 19% somewhat) while 56% have an unfavorable view (48% strongly, 8% somewhat). The silver lining is that at least now voters have a better opinion of her than they do of her opponent.

Only 35% of Pennsylvanians have a favorable view of Trump (21% strongly, 14% somewhat) while 60% have an unfavorable opinion (50% strongly, 10% somewhat).

Issues

The Democratic nominee has the edge on most of the issues. By a 55% to 34% margin, voters think she’ll make the right decisions regarding nuclear weapons. She also leads 54% to 38% when it comes to who would do better in an international crisis.

PA voters favor Clinton 51% to 44% on immigration. She also edges out her opponent 47% to 45% when it comes to sending troops overseas and getting things done in Washington.

Trump is ahead in two categories. By a 52% to 39% margin, voters think he’s better able to create jobs. He is also ahead, 51% to 42%, when it comes to who would do a better job against ISIS.

Personalities

Respondents were also asked questions about the candidate’s personalities.

Trump was considered more inspiring (45/41) as well as more honest and trustworthy (44/40). He also just edged out his opponent on the question of who is a stronger leader (47/46).

On the other hand, by a 59% to 32% margin, Pennsylvanians believe Clinton is better prepared to be President. She also has a 47% to 37% lead when it comes to who has the higher moral standards. Clinton holds a massive 54% to 33% advantage when voters are asked who is more intelligent.

Meanwhile, people would rather watch Trump on TV for the next four years (46/42) and would rather invite him to a backyard barbeque (52/36).

45% would want Hillary Clinton to come to their aid during a personal crisis against 44% who’d prefer Trump.

The Wall and Wall Street

Pennsylvanians were asked about Trump’s proposal for a wall along the Mexican border, more specifically they were asked whether he would actually try to do this and whether he would be able to do it.

44% said he would try but not be able to do it. 26% believe he wouldn’t try while just 23% think he’d try and succeed.

The same question was poised when towards Hillary Clinton’s plan to rein in Wall Street. 54% believe she wouldn’t try. 19% think she would try and fail while just 17% said she would try and succeed.

Finally, Quinnipiac asked if Trump’s assertion that the American-born judge in his Trump University case was biased against him because of his Mexican heritage was racist.

By a 58% to 36% margin, respondents found the statement racist. This extended to every demographic except Republicans.

This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from June 8th to 19th. They contacted 950 registered voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is +/- 3.2%.

Analysis

“In the Clinton-Trump acid test, Pennsylvania voters say Hillary Clinton is smarter, more morally grounded and better equipped to handle the ‘what ifs,’ the use of nuclear weapons and the management of an international crisis,” said Tim Malloy, assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Sure Trump would be more fun at a barbecue and might crush ISIS more efficiently, but given it’s a tossup on leadership, in the broad overview, Trump comes up short.”

These results caused quite a bit of confusion among political observers. For instance, Clinton’s lead against Trump nationally has been steadily increasing in the last few weeks. In these Quinnipiac polls, however, Clinton had just a one-point lead in PA and there was a tie in Ohio. In Florida, however, Clinton leads by eight.

These results don’t really make sense. A Democrat hasn’t recorded a higher share of the vote in Florida than in Ohio since 2000. You have to go all the way back to 1976 and Georgia native Jimmy Carter to find a Democrat who did better in Florida than Pennsylvania.  

Some have also pointed to the demographic makeup of Quinnipiac’s polls.

Quinnipiac’s survey was also in the field for eleven days, which is an unusually long period of time.

Additionally, as we’ve discussed before, the results expose a rift between how pundits and campaign officials view Pennsylvania.

This divide was epitomized in a Twitter argument between perhaps the best political journalist, Dave Wasserman, and perhaps the Democrats’ best political operative, David Plouffe.

June 21st, 2016 | Posted in Features, Front Page Stories, Presidential, Top Stories | 12 Comments

12 thoughts on “Quinnipiac Poll: Clinton 42% Trump 41%”

  1. Barricks Einwohner says:

    Love the photograph.

  2. Tim says:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/transcript-trump-speech-on-the-stakes-of-the-election-224654
    Today’s historic speech by great American patriot Donald Trump puts to rest any doubts I have about Clinton’s fitness to run for office.

    You mention Trump University, but fail to mention Laureate Education where Bill Clinton served as “Chancellor” and was paid nearly 17 million dollars out of the $55 million that the State Department gifted Laureate to a political croney of Hillary;s as she served as Sect. of State. This should in and of itself lead to criminal charges and she should be joining Fattah at “Club Fed”.

    Waiting on Clinton document dump via Wikileaks, Guccifer2.0 and Russia to expose her as the fraud she is. By having her publicly humiliated at the scope of her lies and criminal actions, she will be forced to drop out of the race as criminal charges will absolutely be filed against her.

    Have fun backing crooked Hillary. She’s a criminal and a traitor in my opinion.

  3. StevenTodd says:

    Johnson and Stein by the way, have absolutely no money or exposure. They are, weirdly, making their cases actively to those they wish might vote for them.

    The result? Stein and Johnson are up since last month, the “frontrunners” are stagnant or down.

    Look at Stein, for example. She takes 7%, but according to CNN, 87% of voters said they don’t know enough about our campaign to have an opinion about her.

    So: of the 12% who know about her, half prefer her. You KNOW neither Trump nor Clinton can say that…heck, way over half of America says it doesn’t like, trust or both either one. And we all darned sure know who they both are.

    Of course, if TheBern runs, he takes most of Steins, almost half of Clintons, and a third each of Trump and Johnson. He wins, and everyone following this knows it, deep down.

    #‎FeelTheBern One way or another.

  4. StevenTodd says:

    There you see it, super delegates. By one of the more trusted political pollsters, by both side.

    Send Hillary, you probably – maybe – still do OK…against probably the most unelectable person to ever run for POTUS.

    Send TheBern and you sail by.

    And this in faithfully, historically Blue PA.

    I wonder what OH and FL are showing, since those two will decide it. Well…they would decide it, if we can hold the Blue states. See you in July when you super delegates select our nominee, under our pathetically #BrokenSystem.

    ~ Steve Todd
    Democratic Delegate for Bernie Sanders, PA Congressional District 15
    Dauphin County Democratic Committee, Derry Twp, Precinct 12

  5. David Diano says:

    Tim-

    You must be getting FoxNews pumped into you intravenously: pure misinformation.

    1) Trump bragged about all money he could raise or self-fund his campaign (and how great he is with money/business).
    But, the reality is that he lent (not gave) his campaign $50 million for the primary, and $6 million spent by the campaign has gone to Trump owned companies for office space, events, air travel, catering, etc.
    His campaign has 1.3 million cash on hand, and he raised only $3 million last month. (A lot of Congressional campaigns have more than that.)

    2) Hillary’s fund raising numbers are consistent with both Dem and Republican nominees at this stage. Nothing crooked. Hasn’t bought any votes. Trump is getting killed in the national polls.

    3) Speaking of crooked… Trump. His Trump University is a scam. He has bilked thousands of workers (carpenters, waiters, bartenders, etc) out payment for services rendered, causing some businesses to go bankrupt.

    4) PA is safely blue.

  6. Tim says:

    Dave is Right!

  7. Tim says:

    So it’s a “tie” in this “reliable blue state”! Trump expressed today, that, crooked Hillary will spend over $1 BILLION on her campaign! She’s buying every vote she gets!
    Hackers have totally infiltrated her and the subsequent release of pertinent documents by Wikileaks, Guccifer2.0 & the Russians will sink her quicker than quick.
    She’s a criminal, a liar and a traitor! The facts about her will be out so all Americans can see what a twisted psycho she really is.
    Trump has spent $50 million thus far on his capaign and won the Republican nod. Crooked Hillary has spent at least 8x that much and her polls still stink!
    Trump will polish her off in November, that’s a fact.

  8. Spambot says:

    If it’s in all CAPS, it must be true.

  9. @dave says:

    I just saw all caps and realized it was probably garbage. Looking further, how about you worry about people who are born here instead of people from outside who do far less. I know that’s difficult when you have that guy who uses the tanning booth too much.

  10. David Diano says:

    Nick-

    The poll (and your text) read: PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 42 – Trump 41

    But, your headline is: Clinton 41 Trump 40
    ??

    The bottom line is that Trump has no money, staff or infrastructure for a national campaign, let alone a consistently blue state like PA.

    Crazy Dave-

    Trump will receive the lowest vote total in the past 20 years. That’s call “rejection” not “cheating”.

  11. bungy says:

    Someone get this idiot Dr. Kavorkian’s number ……

  12. Dave says:

    IF DONALD TRUMP IS CHEATED FROM THE PRESIDENCY.

    REMEMBER THE NATIONAL MEDIA SLANTED HEAVILY TOWARDS DEMS & LIBERALS, WILL NEVER TELL YOU THE WHOLE TRUTH. CHECK OUT CABLE’S UNBIASED NEWS ON “ONE AMERICAN NEWS NETWORK.” THOSE WHO DON’T DO THE RESEARCH ON THE CRIMINAL HISTORY AND SUSPICIOUS SITUATION ARE A BUNCH OF HYPOCRITES, FOR NOT MAKING AN INVESTIGATION FIRST? THERE PAST BACKGROUND IS ALL THERE, BUT YOU MUST LOOK FOR IT; STARTING WITH WHITEWATER, THEN BILL CLINTON’S DARK SEXUAL ISSUES AND THE SELLING OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE’S VOTES, TO UNFRIENDLY NATIONS?

    Trump Supporters will walk causing massive consequences in the Cleveland GOP delegate convention, as never seen in history. The majority of the 14 million voters and the Silent Majority will not vote if any dirty tricks are detected?

    Under Hillary Clinton illegal aliens will pour into our country.
    I WILL NOT VOTE FOR THE CRIMINAL CLINTON FAMILY WHO SAID THEY WERE BROKE WHEN LEAVING THE WHITE HOUSE, AND TODAY WORTH 100’s OF MILLIONS. READ THEIR HISTORY FOR FACTS.
    NOR WILL I VOTE FOR THEIR GLOBALIST CRONIES.
    NOR WILL I VOTE FOR ANY POLITICIAN, WHO CONDONES ISLAMIC TREATMENT OF ANY WOMEN; USING THEM AS CATTLE OR WORSE.
    HILLARY CLINTON ACCUMULATED OVER $250 MILLION DOLLARS, WITH MOSLEM COUNTRIES WHOSE FAITH IS “SHARIA LAW” AND MURDERS GAYS, CHRISTIANS, JEWS AND STONE WOMEN TO DEATH FOR ADULTERY.
    AS TO THE APPLE CORPORATION, WITH TRUMP THEY ARE GOING TO LOSE THEIR ENORMOUS PROFITS BY USING CHEAP CHINESE LABOR INSTEAD OF US CITIZENS AND LEGAL IMMIGRANTS?
    THE NATIONAL LIBERAL PRESS LIE OR USE RHETORIC TO TWIST TRUMPS WORDS AND PLANS SUCH AS STOPPING THE ILLEGAL ALIEN INVASION. LEARN MORE OF WHAT THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION AND THE GOP ELITISTS HAVE DONE FOR YOU, SUCH AS NOT ENFORCING OUR BORDERS, NOT MANDATING IF E-VERIFY. CHECK OUT UNPUBLISHED CRIMINAL ACTS BY FOREIGNERS AT http://www.illegalaliencrimereport.com
    YOU WILL HAVE TO PAY MORE TAXES UNDER OBAMA, CLINTON FOR THE MILLIONS OF ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS, THE ( 500%)) PERCENT MORE REFUGEES AND THE TAX & SPEND OF LIBERAL DEMOCRATS.
    The Democratic and Republican Elites will keep their access to Wall Street and become millionaires through cronyism and insider trading. The Corporate Inversion Donald Trump talks about, is stealing jobs, and huge business and the Politicians profit from this?
    Remember the Primary system is rigged on behalf of both parties.
    Cheap labor in the form of legal immigrants will take our jobs, as we are seeing now.
    A tax and spend Oval office with millions of more Americans on welfare to exist.
    Freeloaders who don’t want to work, will forever stay on the welfare rolls.
    Without the wall, our borders will be unsecured.
    China, Japan, India; especially Mexico and the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) will put us in incomprehensible debt.
    Our military is being depleted; undersupplied and losing funds from the Parties votes and ONLY Trump will revitalized our armed services.
    ISIS will not be destroyed and will thrive.
    The US Constitution will be compromised.
    Our economy will NEVER, ever recover. Illegal immigration will continue, stealing American jobs to satisfy incorrigible businesses.
    Radical Muslims will take control, and slowly destroy our way of life. Sharia law will be forced on the American people, as in European countries.
    Our Vets will remain homeless, and suicides will rise as they are forgotten.
    Our guns will slowly be taken away, through new legislation.
    No matter where you or your family goes, reams of rules and regulations will follow you; small business will no longer be able to get ahead.
    We will remain dependent on foreign fossil fuels and our own abundant oil and gas reserves will be prohibited.
    A Hillary White House will force us into a dependency on government.
    Slowly the America we know will no longer exist!

Comments are closed.