Another day, another bad poll for Tom Corbett. Quinnipiac finds that most Pa. registered voters oppose a second term for him. Former Congressman Joe Sestak is the strongest Democratic candidate, though several run ahead of the Governor.
By a margin of 53% to 35%, registered voters surveyed said they don’t think Corbett deserves to be re-elected. Respondents disapprove the Governor’s job performance by a margin of 49% to 39%. Voters view him unfavorably 44% to 39%.
Subsets of the population with a net favorable view of Corbett include Republicans, those making more than $100,000 per year, and voters ages 18-34. Of party, gender, age and income, the only group to say Corbett deserves re-election was Republicans, 59% to 33%.
Though these numbers are low, they are not as dire as a Public Policy Polling survey released yesterday. Nor indeed is the news as bad for Corbett as it was in Quinnipiac’s own poll from late January. That showed his deserve re-elect number slightly worse: 51% against, 31% for.
“It’s still early, but Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett is going nowhere, and maybe even sliding a little as he prepares for what could be a tough reelection fight,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“Pennsylvania voters, especially women, don’t like Gov. Corbett and are ready to consider several possible Democratic challengers, especially former Congressman Joseph Sestak, Mayor Ed Pawlowski and U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz,” Malloy added. “The fact that these relative unknowns top or tie Corbett signals a tough road to reelection.”
Head to Head Matchups
The pollster matched Corbett up against a number of prospective Democratic candidates and finds him trailing some but leading others. Former Congressman Joe Sestak, who ran for Senate in 2010 but hasn’t given any overt signs he’s seriously considering a Guv run, does best. He and Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski have solid leads; all other results are within the margin of error.
Sestak leads Corbett 47% to 38%.
Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski beats Corbett 44% to 38%.
Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz leads Corbett 42% to 39%.
State Sen. Mike Stack leads 40% to 39%.
Businessman and former Revenue Sec. Tom Wolf and Corbett tie at 39%.
Corbett leads former DEP Sec. John Hanger 42% to 41%.
Corbett leads businessman Tom Knox 40% to 39%.
Corbett beats State Treasurer Rob McCord’s 42% to 38%.
Hanger has announced, Pawlowski has hinted, and all other Democrats has indicated they plan to run but have not yet made it official.
Corbett’s head to head troubles are particularly interesting given the fact that barely any voters have heard of any of the Democratic candidates. Should a primary erupt, Sestak starts with the best name ID of the bunch.
Joe Sestak (42% total ID): 27% favorable, 14% unfavorable
Allyson Schwartz (33% total ID): 22% favorable, 11% unfavorable
Rob McCord (17% total ID): 12% favorable, 5% unfavorable
Tom Knox (17% total ID): 9% favorable, 7% unfavorable
Tom Wolf (15% total ID): 10% favorable, 5% unfavorable
Mike Stack (14% total ID): 9% favorable, 4% unfavorable
Ed Pawlowski (13% total ID): 9% favorable, 5% unfavorable
John Hanger (11% total ID): 6% favorable, 5% unfavorable
And here are the numbers among Democrats only for the top tier candidates. Once again Sestak does best and Schwartz is second. McCord, however, shows little benefit from his statewide campaigns including his successful 2012 re-election.
Sestak (47% total ID): 40% favorable, 6% unfavorable
Schwartz (39% total ID): 37% favorable, 2% unfavorable
McCord (23% total ID): 18% favorable, 5% unfavorable.
Once again, women sink Corbett’s numbers. Women said he does not deserve to be re-elected by a 2 to 1 margin, 57% to 28%. Men said no 48% to 42% – a 23 point gender gap.
Women disapprove the job Corbett is doing as Governor 53% to 33%, compared to men who approve 47% to 44% – agan a 23 point gender gap.
In the head to head matchups, women largely skewed toward the Dem candidates. Sestak did the best among women, winning them by 21 points, followed by McCord and Pawlowskia t 15 points each. Hanger did worst, winning women by just 8 points.
Sestak, Schwartz and Pawlowski did the best among men, losing them by 5, 6 and 6 points respectively. Knox and McCord did the worst, each losing men by 15 points.
Voters approve Sen. Bob Casey’s job performance 48% to 34%. They approve Sen. Pat Toomey 43% to 32%.
The disapprove the way the state legislature is doing its job 58% to 28%.
Voters are split as to whether Pa. should expand Medicaid for low income individuals. 46% say it’s a good idea, 43% say it’s a bad idea.
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,116 registered voters from March 6 to 11 using live interviewers on land lines and cell phones. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9%.
A benefit of using live interviews is evident in the name ID numbers for the Democratic candidates. For example, it seems a lot more likely that 11% have an opinion on John Hanger as shown in the Q-Pac poll (if that) than the 33% that PPP’s IVR poll showed yesterday.
Polls of registered voters, as opposed to likely voters, tend to advantage Democrats slightly in Pa.