Donald Trump has taken the lead in Pennsylvania.
That’s according to the latest Quinnipiac Poll, which shows Trump leading Hillary Clinton, 43% to 41%. This contrasts to the past two surveys that each had Clinton up by a point.
Quinnipiac also included Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein in another question. When they were added to the mix, Trump led with 40% against Clinton’s 34%. Johnson got 9% while Stein received 3%.
Demographics
In the head-to-head matchup, Trump leads with the following groups: Republicans (82/5), white men (56/31), those without a college degree (56/31), 50 to 64 year-olds (53/34), whites (51/33), men (48/37), white women (47/35), 35 to 49 year-olds (47/39), those with a college degree (44/37), 65 year-olds and older (44/38), independents (39/36).
Meanwhile Clinton is ahead with these groups: Democrats (82/9), non-whites (72/12), 18 to 34 year-olds (53/25), women (43/39).
The fifteen point gender gap is dramatically smaller than the thirty-three point one in June and the forty point difference in May.
Favorability
A major reason Trump has gained the lead can be found in the candidates’ favorability numbers.
Although both Hillary and Donald have terrible ratings, the latter’s is slightly better. His favorability stands at 38% (24% strongly, 14% somewhat) while his unfavorability hit 57% (50% strongly, 7% somewhat).
Clinton, on the other hand, has an even worse 31% favorability number (17% strongly, 14% somewhat). Meanwhile, her unfavorability is at 65% (54% strongly, 11% somewhat).
Issues
Respondents think Trump would be better at creating jobs (54/39) and more effective against ISIS (52/40).
Pennsylvanians prefer Clinton when it comes to responding to an international crisis (52/43) and handling immigration (49/47).
Personalities
By a 50% to 42% margin, voters believe Trump is a stronger leader than Clinton. He also leads, 49% to 34%, when people are asked who is more honest and trustworthy.
Clinton has the advantage, though, when it comes to a number of other questions. By a 56% to 36% margin she is considered better prepared to be President. 51% of voters also think she is more intelligent while just 37% believe Trump is. Finally, Clinton has a 43% to 41% edge concerning who has higher moral standards.
This survey was conducted by Quinnipiac University using live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones from June 30th to July 11th. They contacted 982 registered voters in Pennsylvania. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%.
Analysis
“As she battles for every vote in a tight race with Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has to look at the erosion of support from women as a red flag in a blue state that could carry one of the candidates to the White House,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Once again, Quinnipiac’s surveys of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida run counter to the national polls. Not only that, but they seem to disagree with themselves. For instance, while the Q polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania have been relatively similar, their Florida results have been all over the place. Last month, Clinton had an eight point lead in the Sunshine State. Now they have Trump up by three.
Additionally, the previous three polls done by other organizations showed Clinton with anywhere from a four to fourteen point lead.
Progressives have criticized the Q polls for oversampling white voters. For instance, Quinnipiac’s latest PA survey has a 83% white electorate projected in November despite the fact that it was 78% in 2012 and the country has gotten less white.
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22 Responses
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Stop worrying about Isaac. Are you gay!?! Seriously …. Just tell me. You seem like a latent homosexual. My father always warned me you were a queer.
LYING CROOKED HILLARY has outspent Trump 54 million to 4 million in swing states since July 1st and Her number’s are getting WORSE. That is a MAJOR problem. Explain that Isaac.
You nailed it, Isaac.
Bungy – enjoy your moment while it lasts. I’d bet dollars to doughnuts the Hillary camp is keeping their powder relatively dry pending the outcome of the Republican convention. They are absolutely terrified that he somehow won’t get the nomination. What we’ve seen so far is a strategic attempt to avoid giving Trump a pass and lay the groundwork to define him, but not to send him into the convention as damaged goods that even the crazies won’t let carry the banner. Once it’s official, we’ll see the heavy artillery roll in.
HaHaHa. Aka BRET COTT. aka jailbird. Brett, how did it feel when Fina convicted you and sent you to prison? Did you really piss your pants in the courtroom? Did you ever pay any taxes on the money you stole from the senior citizens?
It’s not sad that Hillary will run away with this. She is the better candidate. By far !!
Sadly, it looks like Hillary is running away with this election. You have to assume the undecided vote Hillary or don’t vote since Trump is probably topped out due to the fact that he is a two-bit grifter. Hard to believe.
There is another Non-Q poll showing Hillary losing in Iowa. Those nation-wide polls mean absolutely nothing in the electoral college sweepstakes. She NEEDS these swing states, and she is losing Florida in almost of all of them. The Dem Establishment – by annointing this hated candidate – is doing a really good job of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Welp, now I know where the KDKDA troll landed.
“bungy” = SpongeBob = Unsanctioned R (etard) = Crossdressing Brandy = a million other screen-names = pathetic FOXtard
we the people will support hillary…. especially against trump the orange ape lord.
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out today has Clinton ahead by 9. 45%-36%. Taken after the FBI recommendation. These both may be at the extremes, but I still think it’s safe to say that Clinton has a slight lead in PA at the moment. It is only July though.
Ah, yes, Q-poll is dangling the fool’s gold of Pennsylvania in front of hungry Republicans once again. C’mon, Donny, spend a lot of time and money here chasing the dream. Suckers.
Hillary must and will destroy the white supremacist Trump
Trump has one thing LYING CROOKED HILLARY will never have, WE THE PEOPLE.
There are a lot of dumb voters in PA, but Trump is still going to lose. He wants to abolish the minimum wage. The GOP convention is going to be a political disaster of biblical proportions. What does it say about a candidate/campaign when everyone in the party of any stature or up for reelection runs away from the party’s nominee and won’t attend the party convention? None of the past GOP presidents nor final GOP nominees for president are attending the GOP convention.
On the other hand, Hillary (finally) has Bernie’s support (and the more effective support of Warren). The DNC convention will be the hottest political ticket with everyone fighting to attend and have a speaking role.
Also, Trump isn’t putting half the staff/resources into PA that Hillary is.
trump is a con-man grifter. hillary will crush him.
People worry about Trump- but reality is Clinton is corrupt enabler of her
Felony corrupted husband. Do we really want
Someone as vile, vulger and corrupt as Hiliary.
Trump is strange- Hiliary is corrupt to the core and enabled her husband’s corruption at their Foundation and while the Pimp was President.
Facts about Clintons make people pause- notwithstanding Trump is alternative. As secret service and others have noted- Hiliary is a queen bee so full of her self she is devoid of reality
THE SILENT MAJORITY IS RISING. TRUMP
I Do. Her pro BLM, anti-cop strategy will defeat LYING CROOKED HILLARY
Trump has been losing *whites* with a college degree nationally, but he’s winning all those with a college degree in Pennsylvania? I don’t buy it.