It’s probably not a poll Jo Ellen Litz wanted to win, especially in a landslide, but nonetheless PoliticsPA readers chose her as the Democratic Gubernatorial candidate most likely to drop out of the race first.
Almost 300 respondents thought Litz would be the first to drop out, about 180 more than second-highest vote getter Max Myers.
Among the major candidates, though, Ed Pawlowski and John Hanger fared the worst coming in third and fourth with 95 and 79 respondents respectively believing they’ll be the first to go.
Every other candidate, thankfully for them, finished in the single digits. 44 readers thought McGinty would drop out while 39 voted for Schwartz. 35 people thought Tom Wolf will soon leave the race and 23 thought no one will drop out. Coming in last interestingly enough was the last one to announce their candidacy, Rob McCord, with only 19 votes.
The full results on who you thought will drop out first are posted below:
Which Democratic candidate for Governor is most likely to drop out first?
- Jo Ellen Litz (40%)
- Max Myers (15%)
- Ed Pawlowski (13%)
- John Hanger (11%)
- Kathleen McGinty (6%)
- Allyson Schwartz (5%)
- Tom Wolf (5%)
- None of them (3%)
- Rob McCord (3%)
Loading ...
Loading ...
3 Responses
Of course this isn’t a scientific poll, but in my view… Schwartz and McCord have a chance to up their job grade, so they have to stay in. Hanger was the first in and believes in policies over politics, so why would he drop out? McGinty probably similarly. Wolf is investing millions of his own money, so he can do what he wants. The other 3, yes, they are well characterized in the poll. I predict the primary will come down to the 5 whom the poll places as the 5 least likely to drop. For Wagner or anyone else, it’s too late now: this is a race for early starters given Corbett’s extreme unpopularity and the crucial everyday issues dragging him down like public education, environment, and job creation.
There’s a “magic number” that that the candidates need to reach by the time petitions start, to indicate whether they are viable. This number is how many dollars in their campaign account.
If a campaign is under $100,000 by the end of January, I can’t see how it can continue against campaigns with millions of dollars. If a candidate jumped in late, but had shown strong fundraising in the past, one might make the argument that they could repeat some fundraising glory.
But, all the current candidates will have already been in the race for 4 or 5 months at that point, and need something to show for it.
If a candidate had little money, but 10 times as many donors making small contributions, one could argue “grassroots support” and possibly good poll numbers within the party.
What’s a good magic number?
With this particular crowd, it’s got to be at least 1/2 million, but more likely close to 2 million. I’d expect McCord and Schwartz to be north of 4 million.
However, beyond that, I think once you get to about $2 million to 3 million, you have enough to get your message out and let voters know who you are. So, McCord and Schwartz could each have twice the money of the next candidate, and I don’t think it would matter once a challenger reaches $2 million.
I think this is even more true in a 5 way race with smaller victory margins and candidates who split each other’s supporters.
So, a candidate with 1/2 million by the end of December, is a viable threat to McCord and Schwartz once they get on the ballot. Some big donors may wait to see how many signatures a candidate gets and the size of the final field before committing money. The 1/2 million candidate could get to $2 million by the primary,
Poor Joellen. I am unsure if she will be able to get the signatures needed more than her dropping out.