Polling junkies, and let’s face it if you’re reading this you probably are one, got a surprise last night.
Reuters and their polling firm Ipsos announced they would be doing a tracking poll of every state in the nation. This survey will include up to 16,000 likely voters and will be done online.
According to the 771 likely voters in Pennsylvania that Ipsos reached, Hillary Clinton has just a one point lead over Donald Trump, 46% to 45%.
On the surface this is great news for the Trump campaign. The previous six surveys (Suffolk, PPP, F&M, Susquehanna, Quinnipiac and NBC) have shown her Clinton by nine, four, ten, ten and eleven points respectively.
Nonetheless, despite the fact that Reuters and Ipsos are nonpartisan organizations and the highly-regarded site FiveThirtyEight has chosen to include the polls in their averages, there are some serious red flags about this poll.
For instance, several states that have favored Hillary Clinton this cycle (Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico) are described as too close to call. On the other hand, toss-up states like Ohio and Florida are categorized as “High Confidence Clinton”.
Other results make even less sense. For instance, Ipsos has Clinton ahead in Missouri yet Trump leading in Maine. A Democrat hasn’t won Missouri since 1996 and a Republican hasn’t taken Maine since 1988. If either candidate took the other it would indicate a landslide was likely for them. As a result, it doesn’t make sense that both results would occur at the same time.
This is likely because the Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll is new and uses a unique online system. Time will tell whether their results shed new light on the presidential race or only add to the noise.
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16 Responses
For all you young voters out there who are too young to remember Whitewater, Travelgate, Filegate, and all the other Clinton scandals such as coercing women to recant their stories regarding sexual misconduct, then DO SOME RESEARCH PLEASE. Also, look at a great source of her funding such as George Soros who are expecting big favors from the White House if she becomes President. Trump would never have been my first choice but now it seems he’s the only choice! He may be bombastic and a ruthless businessman but what’s wrong with taking that mentality and running the country with it? Making the country his business and putting it FIRST!
Vote for Gary Johnson if you would like to see more people addicted to Heroin.
Trump has had an awesome week of campaigning. Hillary for the most has been hiding only to come out from behind her rich donors to play her racist card early. She’s got nothing left to counter the growing cry for a special prosecutor to fry her for her years of pay for play at the State Department. By this time next week Hillary may even be losing in the NBC polls.
Yeah …. No ….. Sorry, Paul. We have heard that nonsense many times before.
Trump is going to lose. Badly. Romney lost badly with 93% of the Republican vote. Con-man Trump will be lucky to get 75%.
It is going to be a blood bath. And no one deserves to get CRUSHED by a “sick old lady” more than your Orange Ape Lord. He is a disgusting pig. There aren’t enough stupid idiot bigots to carry the day for Trump.
Prepare yourself for President Hillary Clinton. It’s coming!!
The ones who doubt Trump will be the most surprised on election eve. He is hitting on all cylinders and is spot on message. Perhaps his withering attack on Hill with no rebuttal explains her cratering in the polls. Just like he dispatched 16 opponents, he will do the same with Mrs. Clinton. The debates will be the icing on the cake. You heard it here first.
Mr Trump is a two-bit grifter. And that is the tuth.
Trump’s response to the recent Hillary Clinton TV Ads . . .
The promise of Donald Trump’s “outreach to black America” is his direct challenge of the Democratic Party’s “colorblindness” approach to doing things, which denies the realities of structural and systemic inequality and renders the needs of the black community invisible.
Mr. Trump believes that Democratic Party’s “colorblindness” approach has routinely privileged every ethnic community in America and regardless of intent has disadvantaged black neighborhoods.
Mr. Trump believes the “first step” was to illuminate the needs of black America. Now he wants to bridge ethnic differences and build a new stronger nation based on inclusion, equity, justice and respect for diversity.
Mr. Trump offers proactive solution to address job creation, revitalization of K-12 education, making college more affordable, and the like. His proposal will strengthen family bonds, economic mobility, and full engagement as a weapon against the epidemic of black homicide, gun violence, and poverty.
Mr. Trump wants to build alliances to expand opportunities for unemployed blacks to enter the workforce and make an investment in their community. He wants to enact tax cuts for small businesses, offer incentives to hire inner-city residents, and put resources in place to support starting and sustaining “Main Street” business development.
Mr. Trump wants every black boy and girl who wants to work to be provided with a quality education that will enable them to work. His proposal is a commitment to remove blight, rebuild neighborhoods, and to ensure black families an equitable chance of home ownership.
No matter what Mr. Trump says or how the Democrats interpret it . . . asserting “everything is good in black America” is dishonest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVEnw82HEvc
I live outside of Pittsburgh and have traveled throughout the state his summer and this is the first poll that seems even close to being accurate. I NEVER once have seen a Hillary yard sign or bumper sticker or shirt, nothing! I still see Bernie yard signs and bumper stickers and I see tons of Trump signs, from small yard signs to giant homemade signs, lots of bumper stickers and shirts. No one seems to like Hillary here and there is a ton of enthusiasm here for Mr. Trump. I truly believe Pennsylvania will shock the pollsters and Americans and go for Trump on election night. Literally, if you told me I’d win a million dollars if I could find a Hillary yard sign within an hour I’d lose, they don’t exist, not in the college towns or even in the city where there were like a million Obama signs in ’08 and ’12. A Trump sign on the other hand would be found within minutes.
Maybe Hillary’s s___-eater grin strategy isn’t working
I was polled last week. I forget the pollster, but it was via landline.
The choices were Clinton, Trump or Unsure. When I said I may vote for another candidate, pollster said “that is unsure.” When I asked what happens if one is sure that they are voting for one of the other candidates, pollster asked what other candidates are there. When I said Jill Stein for one, she said she had never heard of Stein.
Yes, I’d say there a few red flags in the polling, if some one whose job it is to poll about POTUS has never heard of a candidate who is polling 4% so far.
I wonder if that pollster has ever heard of Gary Johnson, who is polling 16%. Probably not.
when Hillary wins and will win Pa big Observer and Jim smith ( Must be cowards not to post real names) will crawl back under their good Christian Cuntservative repub rocks
Mr.Tom Corbett would beat Mrs. Clinton.
Lolol… It shows how weak she is as a cnadidate, so it MUST be a faulty poll, right? Because the Empress Certainly is wearing very fine clothes, right? Lolol… The Establishment echo chamber is really well-insulated.
So if there are “some serious red flags” why would Pa Politics even give it any ink. must be a slow news day
There’s something wrong with this poll. Trump has imploded and there is no way he makes up a ten point deficit in PA polls in just weeks.
Trump is all noise, no light.