Rothenberg Moves PA-Gov from Tossup to Tilts Democratic

TOM CORBETTMore doubt over Gov. Tom Corbett’s 2014 re-election chances: the Rothenberg Political Report changed its prediction of PA’s gubernatorial race from ‘Pure Tossup’ to ‘Tossup/Tilts Democratic.’

Stu Rothenberg is the second national political observer to make such a change, following Larry Sabato in late June.

“It’s not very often that the party out of power encourages the incumbent to seek re-election, but that’s the case in Pennsylvania,” Nathan Gonzales wrote in the Rothenberg column for CQ Roll Call.

“Republican Gov. Tom Corbett’s polling numbers have sagged to the point where Democrats are excited about their opportunity but nervous he will retire, thereby allowing state Republicans to find a potentially stronger nominee.”

Rothenberg made the change in part as a response to a month-old Quinnipiac poll showing Corbett losing to his challengers in the Democratic Party by double digits. Corbett’s job approval rating was negative, with disapproval were at 48% and approval at 35%.

The wide Democratic field of potential challengers is happy about continuous polling data that show the beleaguered Republican’s numbers remaining low. June’s budget session brought tough scrutiny on Corbett following the legislature’s failure to pass any of the Governor’s three policy priorities.

Stuart Rothenberg is the editor of the Rothenberg Political report, a bi-weekly newsletter for political analysis. Rothenberg also frequently comments for CBS and the Political Wire. He briefly taught at Bucknell University in Lewisburg, Pa.

July 10th, 2013 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Governor, Top Stories | 9 Comments

9 thoughts on “Rothenberg Moves PA-Gov from Tossup to Tilts Democratic”

  1. Joe LaRocca says:

    Alistar Rothchild wrote:
    “Eric Bradway is Running For Governor on the Democratic Ticket against whomever Wins The Republican Nomination for Governor.”
    OOPS! That “whomever” should be “whoever” because it’s the subject of the
    noun clause “whoever wins, etc…,” not the object of the preposition “against,” thus should read:
    “Eric Bradway is Running For Governor on the Democratic Ticket against WHOever Wins The Republican Nomination for Governor.”

  2. Alistar Rothschild says:

    Former Lower Merion Constable Eric Bradway is Running For Governor on the Democratic Ticket against whomever Wins The Republican Nomination for Governor

  3. PAINDY1 says:

    How do I apply to be a Knight at Corbett’s round table? There is not much time left to join the feast in Corbett’s Camelot. All the goodies may be gone, like that $100 million fund that Sen John Gordner received. How do I get my interview with Mr. John Brabender? Please help me-time is running out!!!

  4. Robert B. Sklaroff, M.D. says:

    @ “Truthteller”:

    Your observation [“Does the GOP really allow for Corbett to be their candidate? Santorum had a better shot at reelection in the ’06 cycle than Corbett does now.”] has been promulgated by Guzzardi and myself for the past year; the response from the Republican powers-that-be has been electrical-silence [admixed with a plea for loyalty].

    Time is tightening….

  5. Truthteller says:

    Does the GOP really allow for Corbett to be their candidate? Santorum had a better shot at reelection in the ’06 cycle than Corbett does now.

  6. Richard says:

    He’s toast. And the amazing part is that he and his advisers are ignoring the one thing that has broad voter appeal and could potentially save his sorry butt if he’d make it a priority: HB/SB 76, the Property Tax Independence Act.

  7. I’m waiting for them to change the rating from “Toss-up” to “Toss-out”

  8. Basilej says:

    To smug to retire.

  9. Funny thing is that Rothenberg, like Sabato, skews Conservative. Corbett must really be screwed if they’re throwing dirt on the grave now.

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