With more troubling polling news emerging, the Corbett campaign is diligently working on predicting Election Day turnout.
Sources provided PoliticsPA with an internal Corbett campaign memo that discusses the various election models that BehaviorMatrix has forecast for November 4th.
“BehaviorMatrix collected and analyzed actual voter turnout data from the past three gubernatorial off year elections in Pennsylvania,” the memo reads. “The model uniquely matches retrospective results with likely voters, and further defines eligible voters as part of its calculus.”
In contrast to most polls which survey registered voters, the BehaviorMatrix model seeks to narrow its focus towards likely voters. After studying the last three gubernatorial elections, the model projects an electorate close to the 2002 election.
“As for the 2014 election, BehaviorMatrix’s model predicts a much closer race,” they write. “The predicted turnout of likely voters is estimated at 3,920,229 voters with the Governor trailing Wolf by 7 points instead of 20.”
“As mentioned above, the campaign needs to focus on the same counties that Rendell used to win in 2002,” it continues. “The campaign needs to focus on increasing favorability or demotivating oppositional turnout in the following counties: Philadelphia (trailing by 72) Montgomery (trailing by 28), Lackawanna (trailing by 26), Bucks (trailing by 20), Northampton (trailing by 13), Chester (trailing by 12), Luzerne (trailing by 12), Allegheny (trailing by 10), and Fayette (trailing by 8).”
Finally, the document contains county maps of the 2014 projection compared to the results in 2002, 2006 and 2010.
It’s clear from this memo that the Corbett-Cawley team believe they have still have a reliable path to victory.
Update: Below are some better resolution photos of the maps: