Today, in the latest report from University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Pennsylvania gubernatorial election is shifted from “Lean Democratic” to “Likely Democratic”.
Managing Editor Kyle Kondik went so far as to call the Governor a “goner”.
“Gov. Tom Corbett (R-PA) has looked like a goner for a long time,” Kondik writes. “We moved his race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic more than a year ago. We held it there after the primary because of Pennsylvania’s tradition of consistently giving each party two consecutive terms in the governor’s office (Corbett is just in his first party term) and because we wanted to see if there was any sign of movement in Corbett’s direction against his Democratic opponent, Tom Wolf.”
“There hasn’t been,” he concluded. “Wolf’s been up double digits in every single poll conducted since the primary. Corbett looks like a one-termer.”
Sabato believes four Governorships are likely to change party hands (Arkansas and Illinois from Dem to GOP as well as Maine from GOP to Dem) but Pennsylvania is the only race where that change is categorized as “likely”.
Last week, Governing Magazine similarly shifted the PA-Gov race from “Lean Democratic” to “Likely Democratic”.