🥴 A Thursday for understanding polls. F&M poll among four released today.

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Top Story

1. F&M Poll: Presidential Race Still Within Margin of Error; McCormick Narrows Deficit vs. Casey

“While still within the margin of error, Vice President Kamala Harris continued her string of strong polling numbers against former President Donald Trump in the latest survey from Franklin & Marshall College.

The survey results showed Harris with a three-point advantage over Trump, 49-46%, in a multi-candidate race with third parties and leaning voters included.The three points that separate the candidates are within the poll’s 4.1% margin of error.

F&M also polled the U.S. Senate matchup between Democrat Bob Casey Jr. and Republican Dave McCormick and found the three-term incumbent with a 48-40% advantage in the race. McCormick has been headway into a 12-point deficit (48-36%) that he faced after the last poll by the Center for Public Opinion.” (PoliticsPA)

More Polls

• NYT/Siena. Harris 50 Trump 46; Casey 49, McCormick 40
• Emerson: Trump 48, Harris 47; Casey 47, McCormick 42
• Marist: Harris 49, Trump 49

Elsewhere

Inside Trump’s Electoral Firewall. “There are really only three states that will decide the presidential election: Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. If Vice President Kamala Harris can’t carry Pennsylvania, her only hope is on a Southern strategy. Harris must win either Georgia or North Carolina. She has no other path to the White House.” (POLITICO)

• 10 Undecided Voters Explain Why They Haven’t Picked A Side In This Election. (NPR)

Trump to Rally at IUP Venue With Separate Rules From Campus Political Event Ban. “Former President Donald Trump is planning a campaign rally at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, a state-owned campus that expressly prohibits “activities for the purpose of advancing a single political candidate or party” in any university-controlled facility.” (Greensburg Tribune-Review)

Harris Hopes to Turn Ukraine War Into Winning Issue In Battle With Trump For Polish American Votes. “Democrats are stepping up their outreach to Polish Americans in this year’s presidential election as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump vie for support from a community that could play a decisive role in razor-thin battleground state contests.” (AP)

• Why Is Donald Trump Coming to the Our Lady Of Czestochowa Shrine in Bucks County? (Bucks County Courier)

State

2. PA Court Agrees to Revive Ballot Dating Lawsuit; RNC Wants State Supreme Court to Shut It Down

“A group of voter rights organizations has asked a Pennsylvania court to revive its lawsuit challenging Philadelphia and Allegheny counties’ disqualification of mail-in ballots that are returned to election officials on time, but without a handwritten date on the return envelope.

The 10 organizations, led by the Black Political Empowerment Project and represented by the American Civil Liberties Union of Pennsylvania, asked Commonwealth Court Judge Ellen Ceisler to allow them to correct a procedural error that prompted the state’s highest court to throw out a ruling in their favor.” (Penn Capital-Star)

Elsewhere

Bob Casey Has a Big Lead In Pennsylvania’s Senate Race. But Dave McCormick Is Still In It, A New Poll Shows. “U.S. Sen. Bob Casey is leading his Republican challenger, David McCormick, by 9 percentage points among likely voters, according to a new poll by The Inquirer, The New York Times, and Siena College.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)

• Josh Shapiro Is More Popular In PA Than Kamala Harris, Donald Trump — And Even Taylor Swift. (Philadelphia Inquirer)

AG Candidate DePasquale Says Leadership Is His Strength: ‘You’re Not Just Electing a Robot’. “The Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania Attorney General, Eugene DePasquale, stressed his nonpartisan, tough-on-everyone style while also saying he wouldn’t hesitate to weigh in on politically crucial issues during a Zoom interview Wednesday with PennLive’s editorial board.” (PennLive)

Harris, Carroll Victorious in PA House Special Elections. “There are two new members of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives today as Keith Harris and Andre Carroll were elected on Tuesday.” (PoliticsPA)

Republican Senators Threaten PA Revenue Secretary With Contempt Over Special Tax Zone. “Long-running disagreements over the financial transparency of a special tax zone in Eastern Pennsylvania escalated Wednesday as senators raised the possibility of having the Senate sergeant-at-arms bring state Revenue Secretary Patrick Browne before the chamber.” (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

State High Court Warns PennDOT of Overreaching on Voter Registration. “In most cases, the address for voter registration information is the same as the vehicle registration, so no changes are necessary. But in that small percentage of cases in which a person might have multiple domiciles or might be moving, the change could cause havoc for some voters.” (Broad + Liberty)

Around The Commonwealth

3. Election Could Have Major Implications For Climate Plans In Red, Blue States Alike

“Pennsylvania wants to remain a manufacturing powerhouse. But state leaders also want to reduce climate change-causing emissions from steel mills and other industrial facilities while cutting back the toxic pollutants that cause health problems in nearby neighborhoods.

Thanks to a nearly $400 million investment from the federal government, the state is preparing a massive plan to help industrial operators upgrade to new technologies and switch to cleaner fuel sources.” (Stateline)

Elsewhere

Mayor Endorses a Downtown Sixers Arena As Chinatown Activists Rally Outside City Hall. “Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle L. Parker decisively stepped into the city’s biggest development fight Wednesday, announcing that her administration had reached an agreement with the Sixers to build a controversial $1.55 billion arena in Center City.” (Philadelphia Inquirer)

Curiosity and Controversy: The Political Mood on College Campuses in Pittsburgh. “The 2024 election is very much in play on Pittsburgh campuses.” (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

First Came Tax Hikes, Then a Flood — Then Resentment. Can a Merger Heal This PA Community? “The past few years haven’t been easy for residents here. Costs for first responders, snow removal, and other services drained Mount Penn Borough’s savings, and in 2022 leaders significantly hiked taxes. The community — with a median household income of about $60,000, one of the lowest in the county — is now the highest-taxed here.” (Spotlight PA)

Editorial

4. What’s On Your Mind

• Now That Mayor Parker Backs the Sixers Arena, Whither Chinatown? (Philadelphia Inquirer)
• Donald Trump’s Songs in the Key of Strife. (Gene Collier)
• A Kamala Harris Crowd — Big and Happy. (Byron York)
• The Politics of Joy. (Lowman Henry)
• Why Would Pennsylvania Elections Need Foreign Money? (Greensburg Tribune-Review)

1 Thing

5. Pennsylvania Sanctions Girls’ Flag Football As High School Sport

“Pennsylvania made flag football an officially sanctioned girls’ high school sport Wednesday amid a push from the commonwealth’s NFL teams to encourage more female athletes to get on the field.

The approval from the Pennsylvania Interscholastic Athletic Association — the statewide body that governs high school athletics in the commonwealth — makes flag football an official sport for girls in the nation’s fifth-most populous state starting in the 2025-26 school year.

“This is not just an important day for the Eagles and Steelers, but for the sport of football and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania,” Eagles owner Jeff Lurie said in a statement.” (ESPN)

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