September 7th Ups & Downs
A slew of 1st ads are released for Democratic candidates this week, Sabato’s Crystal Ball changes a rating in a PA Congressional race, and the NRCC backs out of one TV market for September, and more are in this week’s Ups and Downs.
Every week PoliticsPA sends an exclusive extra Up or Down to Playbook subscribers. See who gets the extra up or down next week: sign up here.
Democratic Ads. Three Democratic Congressional candidates facing incumbent Republicans made their TV debuts this week. Rep. Conor Lamb, Ron DiNicola, and George Scott each released their first campaign ads for the general election cycle this week touting bipartisanship and their military background. Nearly a month ago, Reps. Keith Rothfus and Mike Kelly released their first television ads, both highlighting protecting Medicare and Social Security. PoliticsPA was unable to find any ads released thus far for the general election from Rep. Scott Perry’s campaign.
John Chrin. Earlier this week, the National Republican Congressional Committee invested nearly $500,000 in a television ad buy in the 8th district and stated the seat is a “top target” for the PAC. Yesterday, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball ratings changed the race in PA-8 from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. The election analyst cited Chrin as a “credible self-funder” and the boundaries of the newly drawn district going to Trump by about 10 points.
Keith Rothfus. The National Republican Congressional Committee is canceling spending in Pittsburgh that had been set for September 12 to October 8. The Rothfus campaign responded to this news stating that the NRCC was not “canceling the buy, but is pushing it back.” The NRCC still has money in the market in place from October 8 through Election Day, although that could be canceled at a later date as well. In Roll Call’s most recent incumbent vulnerable ratings, Rothfus is placed as the 2nd most vulnerable House member and has the race as Leans Democratic.
Bob Casey. This past weekend, former Vice President Joe Biden visited Pittsburgh for the Labor Day Parade, in which the Casey campaign was able to fundraise off of. One day later, the Casey campaign confirmed that former President Barack Obama will be fundraising with them in Philadelphia on September 21. GOP challenger, Rep. Lou Barletta had President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence fundraise with him during the summer as well. The reason for both arrows? Roll Call’s most recent incumbent vulnerable ratings has Casey as the 10th most vulnerable incumbent Senator up for reelection this year, despite having the race labeled as Likely Democratic.
McNesby vs Krasner. The Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 5 President and the Philadelphia District Attorney have not had a friendly relationship to say the least, and the feud continued this week. On Tuesday, DA “Krasner filed homicide charges against Ryan Pownall, a former Philadelphia police officer who fatally shot a man named David Jones last year.” This is the first time in almost twenty years that a Philadelphia DA has pursued a murder case against a city police officer. McNesby called the charges an “an absurd disgrace.” Billy Penn’s Max Marin story titled “Why Ryan Pownall’s murder trial will be Philly’s most-watched in decades” dives into the significance of the case.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
I tried a meme pic.twitter.com/3KBC8jjos7
— Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) September 4, 2018