Smith Poll: Smith, Casey Tied at 46

Smith, left, and Casey

Tom Smith and Bob Casey are neck and neck, according to the latest internal survey from the Republican Senate hopeful’s pollster.

Each candidate takes 46 percent of the vote, a 2 point improvement for Smith from his Oct. 11 poll showing Casey ahead 46 percent to 44.

The pollster, John McLaughlin, interviewed 400 likely Pa. voters on Nov. 1. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percent.

“With just 4 days until the election, Tom Smith has the momentum in the race for United States Senate. The majority of voters are either voting for challenger Tom Smith, or still do not want to vote for Bob Casey. This is a very bad sign for the incumbent this late in the race and it appears Bob Casey is entering the final stretch of his career in the United States Senate,” he wrote.

The poll showed Smith’s favorables at 44 percent positive, 38 percent negative. Casey was at 45 percent positive and 43 percent negative.

As with any internal poll, take this with a grain of salt. Campaigns have about 6 more hours to make news in any race. After that, it’s all about getting out the vote. Releasing a poll like this is probably an effort to cement the narrative that this is a tight race (and ensure outside ad buyers that Pa. is worth their investment).

Casey Campaign Manager Larry Smar noted the timing of the release as well as its variance from some independent polls.

“If the independent polls show you down around 10 points, I guess the answer is to buy a fake internal poll and release it at 4:30pm on a Friday,” Smar said. “A one-night poll with a 5 percent margin of error? Smith has really worked the GOP pollsters, but they are really stretching now.”

November 2nd, 2012 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Senate, Top Stories | 11 Comments

11 thoughts on “Smith Poll: Smith, Casey Tied at 46”

  1. Michelle says:

    I can’t stand any of the Tom Smith commercials. I especially find the one with his Mum offensive. Does he not have enough faith in his own Mother to allow her to speak and say more than “Right”? Or is he ashamed of the fact that with his millions of dollars he never sent his mother to the Dentist. He is a disgrace. I am proud to say I did not vote for him today. If he treats his own Mother that way how would he treat strangers?

  2. freddie says:

    Tom Smith is a servant of the corporate masters and guys like him are responsible for the fact that I never got to meet my Grand Father……….His is the third name on the bronze plaque in front of the Clymer, PA Borough building along with 43 other miners who lost their lives digging coal for idiots like Smith who’s non union mines are violations waiting to happen

  3. “Casey knows how PA functions and what the needs are here. He believes in PA and has been doing a great job.”

    Casey doesn’t give a hoot about Pennsylvania and he hasn’t done a single thing since he has been in office outside of sticking his head up Obamas’ keister.

    Smith 2012

  4. Bonnie McGuire says:

    With BOOB Casey’s act of kissing OBUMMER’S BUTT and Looking at Bob Casey’sINEFFECTUAL VOTING RECORD and HIS TOTAL INCOMPETENCE in the Senate, I have to say Tom Smith appears to be the GUY I WANT to send to Washington. KEEP in mind BOOB CASEY is the SAME GUY who said that “WELFARE and ACCESS CARDS are a GREAT STIMULANT to OUR ECONOMY”. Do I really think that BOOB has ANY CREDIBILITY?? Nah, he’s an INCOMPETENT BOOB

  5. Sreven says:

    Casey woke up about a week ago and realized Tom Tea Party Smith was willing to blow 15 to 20 million of his own money on the race. Hi mom, I am a multimillionaire but I am so so happy that you are living on the taxpayers money. I would never take away your Social Security. Cause then i would have to support you. And who am I to support you when the taxpayers can do that.

  6. Sreven says:

    Unabrow……. Duh

  7. mary says:

    Casey has hardly even run a campaign. Maybe he would like nothing more than to just retire out of this mess.
    Enough lawyers in Washington. Smith for Senate!

  8. Craig Kaufman says:

    Casey knows how PA functions and what the needs are here. He believes in PA and has been doing a great job. Let’s let Tea Party Tom spend his millions somewhere else. Vote for PA, Vote Casey! Oh, please consider a vote for Luana Cleveland for PA State Senate if you are in District #23. See: http://www.luanacleveland.com

  9. Justin says:

    Say no to the unibrow. Vote for Tom Smith

  10. Christine McCormick says:

    I know that is shallow but I can’t stand Tom Smith’s voice on the commercials.

  11. David Diano says:

    I think the poll was conducted among Smith’s friends, family and staff.

    I saw Smith’s commercial with his Mom about protecting her social security. He’s pissed away over $10 million, far in excess of any money his Mom would need from SS.

    I can’t believe she’d vote for someone dumb enough to blow $10 million because he was running to protect the few hundred she gets each month.

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