Of course, we did see sparks fly in some of the campaigns last week when Tom Corbett revealed he would participate in a lawsuit to overturn the newly signed federal health care bill. Most prominent of all was the threat from House Appropriations Chairman Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia), who said he would cut the attorney general’s funding if he didn’t end his involvement in the suit. The powerful Harrisburg lawmaker, who Republicans excoriated for his threat, also demanded Corbett provide in detail how much the lawsuit is costing his office and how many attorneys are working on it, a request the attorney general’s office said late last week that it would not provide. (It costs nothing extra, a spokesman said.)

The political implications of this squabble between the two men could turn a disagreement over a relatively small amount of money into the Capitol’s most prominent issue in the next few weeks if nothing changes. Let’s see if either man blinks first.

We’ll also see if the four Democratic gubernatorial candidates try to gang up on Corbett during a gubernatorial forum Wednesday in the capital city. All six are scheduled to be on hand, and, unlike the previous gubernatorial gatherings, perhaps this one will see the candidates take shots against one another. The forum, held by the Committee of Seventy, will focus on state government reform

And who can forget our former senator’s continued presidential quest? Rick Santorum (R) will continue to feed the 2012 Presidential rumor mill this week when he visits Pottawattamie County Republicans in the all-important primary state of Iowa.  Santorum already visited the state earlier this month to speak with a Christian group, and has been clear expressing interest in the 2012 race.  The Post-Gazette’s Dan Malloy took a look at Santorum’s active PAC, America’s Foundation, this morning.

Speaking of the home stretch, there’s been increased chatter lately about at least one of the candidates hitting the airwaves soon. Arlen Specter has more than $8 million cash on hand already, so it makes sense that he could run the year’s first ad soon. Most operatives peg airing statewide TV ads to cost about $1 million a week.

Many Democrats say they expect Specter’s campaign to run a positive ad first in an attempt to raise his abysmal re-election numbers, although attacks against opponent Joe Sestak likely won’t be far behind. Also, don’t rule out Dan Onorato and his more than $6 million on hand hitting the airwaves soon.

Tomorrow morning, the latest Quinnipiac University poll will be released, giving Pa. political junkies a fresh look at the Senate race, as well as Pennsylvanians’ feelings on President Obama and “trust in government.”

Of course, this week the Democratic and gubernatorial primaries take a back seat to the 12th Congressional District. Democratic delegates are set to meet on Saturday to recommend which candidate be placed on the special election ballot, and already the behind-the-scenes maneuvering is rampant. The race increasingly looks like a two-person contest between former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer and John Murtha’s district director, Mark Critz, with Cambria County Controller Ed Cernic Jr. possibly playing the spoiler.  Critz has won potentially crucial endorsements in the past week, gaining support from Murtha’s widow, Joyce Murtha, and former Lieutenant Governor Mark Singel.

But the real action might occur between Saturday’s straw poll meeting, which counts only as a recommendation, and Monday’s vote by the party’s Executive Committee, which officially nominates a candidate. Party leaders could intervene and support someone who didn’t receive the recommendation but they believe would make a stronger candidate against the Republicans — particularly if Saturday’s straw poll vote isn’t a blowout. The Executive Committee, made up of members from across Pennsylvania, traditionally follows the local recommendation, but things might be different for a race this important.

The Republicans won’t select their candidate until March 11, giving businessman Tim Burns and former Army officer Bill Russell more time to campaign for the job. Burns seems the favorite for the nomination now after picking up conservative blog RedState’s endorsement and winning the first county committee vote between the two men.

Also, expect some discussion of the National Journal’s House Ratings breaking down the liberal and conservative tendencies of every member of Congress.  Already, observers have taken note of Jason Altmire’s conservative rating (# 196 in the House) compared with his liberal ranking (# 235).  The state’s highest ranking liberals were Philadelphia’s Reps. Brady and Fattah (#s 22 and 30, respectively) and Rep. Pitts (Lancaster) was the highest ranked conservative (# 38).

As you’re reading this now, Mike Veon’s “Bonusgate” trial has been going for at least several hours. It’s the former Democratic House leader’s first day on trial in the public corruption case, and the scrutiny on it will be harsh from nearly every media outlet in Harrisburg. Of course, as we’ve been telling you for weeks, the trial is critical for Attorney General Tom Corbett’s Republican gubernatorial campaign. His public corruption investigation is the centerpiece of his time as the state’s chief prosecutor, and it’s likely what voters know most about him right now.  Corbett already lost his case against state Rep. Sean Ramaley, who was acquitted on all charges, but most think his case against Veon is much stronger. But expect the former Democratic leader’s lawyers to mention Corbett’s political ambition early and often during the trial.

Now that the deadline for submitting campaign fundraising numbers has passed, analysis of the candidates’ totals will keep us busy for a few days, and the most striking numbers come from the Democratic Senate primary, where winners and losers are sometimes hard to identify.  Joe Sestak’s haul wasn’t monumental last quarter, but it outpaced incumbent Arlen Specter after expenditures are included, despite Specter’s overall lead.   Still, is Sestak the real winner here?  GOP challenger Pat Toomey is watching closely from afar as his two potential opponents rip into each other – and all the while his lead in the polls widens further. If Sestak and Specter spend all their money beating each other up, Toomey will almost certainly enjoy a significant financial advantage in the general election.

In the race for governor, rumors continue to swirl that Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty will re-direct his focus to the lieutenant governor’s spot, presumably paired with Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato. Combined with news his campaign manager has left, expect some Democrats to begin penciling in that pairing for November. ]]> http://www.politicspa.com/politicspas-weekly-primer-21-edition/5933/feed/ 2 http://www.politicspa.com/politicspas-weekly-primer-1228-edition/4213/ http://www.politicspa.com/politicspas-weekly-primer-1228-edition/4213/#comments Mon, 28 Dec 2009 17:59:58 +0000 sean.coit http://www.politicspa.com/?p=4213 In this down week between Christmas and the new year, the obligatory year-end and decade-end best-of, worst-of, etc. lists will keep us amused until the politicking kicks back into gear. Our favorite so far:  Morning Call reporter John Micek’s, of course.  His decade in review is the best Pa.-specific feature we’ve seen so far, but keep an eye out for PoliticsPA’s own best political stories of the year and decade, coming before the new year.

After last week’s drama involving some serious GOP courtship of Democratic U.S. Rep Chris Carney, will any other Pa. pols be tempted to switch parties?  The short answer:  No.

Don’t be surprised if the investigation of state Sen. Jane Orie takes a nasty turn in the near future.  Orie is under investigation following allegations (by a former intern!) that her office was used to make political calls for her sister’s (Joan Orie Melvin) campaign for Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court.  Jerry McDevitt, who is representing Sen. Orie, promised to “unleash hell in December” following a raid of her office computers.

Looking even further ahead, 2010 promises to be one of the most fascinating years in Pennsylvania political history.  With a governor’s race still up in the air, nasty primary and general election battles to come for House and Senate seats, continued Bonusgate developments and more, 2010 will be a maelstrom of political plot lines.

Don’t expect much out of Harrisburg for a couple of weeks – both the House and Senate have adjourned (without a table games bill) until January 5, but lawmakers whose districts will benefit most from additional gambling revenue will continue to stump for local projects that need funding.  What projects would be first in line for funding?  A hospital in Bucks, a community college in Erie, a medical school in Scranton, so local legislators will have the most gain.

After the U.S. Senate approved a procedural motion to bring the health care reform bill to a vote for full passage on Thursday (Christmas Eve), Pennsylvania’s Senators’ votes are receiving nearly as much attention as any other (aside from Nebraska’s Ben Nelson and a few others).  Bob Casey, Scranton’s favorite Irish-Catholic Senator, has gotten serious blow-back from Catholic voters wary of his tiptoe around abortion funding.  Arlen Specter, up for re-election in 2010 and in a dead-heat with GOP candidate Pat Toomey, has been targeted by the NRSC for his health care vote.

This year, fundraising will be key for statewide aspirants, as the packed field of gubernatorial candidates (particularly the Democrats) angle with big-money donors at the Waldorf and surrounding parties.  The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Tom Infield has a great break down of the candidates’ fundraising operations in today’s paper.  Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, believed to hold a strong financial advantage over his primary opponents (excluding millionaire Tom Knox), is having the most success within his party, while Tom Corbett continues to hold a clear advantage in the GOP primary.  Rendell, who is publicly neutral in the race, has indicated a preference for Onorato, who is scheduled to appear at a Thursday-night event honoring the governor in Manhattan.

This is the week we can finally end the Lou Barletta drama: Will he or won’t he run for Congress? The Hazleton mayor plans to publicly declare his decision on Wednesday, and opinion is split among local politicos on whether he’ll challenge U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski for a third time. Of course, he has to face Republican Christopher Paige first, not to mention retire about $250,000 in campaign debt from last year’s contest.

EXTRA – We cant help but send you back to Philadelphia Magazine editor Larry Platt’s piece in GQ about his a aborted run for Congress in the 6th District.  Why?  A great recollection of his experience at the 2007 Pennsylvania Society festivities.

Barletta adviser Vince Galko tells PoliticsPA response to the letter has “exceeded expectations by a huge amount,” but he remained coy about whether a decision has been made. “Mayor Barletta is still considering a run,” Galko said.

The first “Bonusgate”-related trial will begin tomorrow, as former state Rep. Sean Ramaley of Beaver County heads to court in Pittsburgh.  Though Ramaley was hardly one of the major players in the alleged corruption schemes, this case, like the others, is years in the making.  The other prosecutors and defendants (and, of course, PoliticsPA) will be watching very closely.

What isn’t on the horizon?  Any real heat for Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl, whose proposed tax on college tuition has created negative press for the mayor, but no substantive threats.  From the Post-Gazette’s Rich Lord:  “Given annual tuition hikes that dwarf the proposed levy, most students won’t remember it when some council members come up for re-election in 2011, let alone in 2013, when the mayor faces voters.”

Let’s stop the rumor-mill now. Corbett made it clear during his last press conference that alleged obstruction from legislative staffers and an 11-percent budget cut to his office will slow the investigation. Because the holiday season has arrived, it’s likely a safe assumption the next round of charges won’t come until 2010.

GOP Senate candidate Pat Toomey has been feeling the love so far this week, with a flattering column from the Inquirer’s Kevin Ferris, and some even-tempered, but optimistic analysis from Shira Toeplitz at CQ-Roll Call.  So, what should you NOT look for?  Any major splashes from Toomey.  With Sestak and Specter sniping at each other more and more, expect Toomey to continue to play it safe (steady on fiscal responsibility, quiet on his conservative social positions, with a few careful, centrist moves).

Enjoy the time off this week. Combined with Christmas, Thanksgiving will be one of the last chances for everyone to disconnect from the political scene before 2010. Don’t expect any similar breaks until May.

State Rep. Sam Rohrer (R-Berks) is expected to formally announce his entry into the GOP gubernatorial primary on Tuesday night at a town hall event in West Lawn, PA.  Rohrer will face an uphill battle against Attorney General Tom Corbett, the clear-cut GOP front runner, and US Rep. Jim Gerlach, whose 6th congressional district significantly overlaps with Rohrer’s.  Still, Rohrer will have a clear position in the primary as the conservative option for Republican voters.

In the wake of Bonusgate, Round II, there will be some continued, half-hearted calls for AG Tom Corbett to resign from his position as he runs for governor, but don’t expect anything to come from it.  His GOP challenger, Jim Gerlach, has publicly declared Corbett’s position a “conflict of interest,” but Corbett has plainly stated that he will not resign.  Considering he levied charges against Republicans, most notably State Rep. John Perzel. there probably won’t be sufficient public outcry to make this an actual issue.

We’re keeping an eye out for some more press releases and media baiting from new 7th district Democratic candidate Bryan Lentz.  Though Lentz’s candidacy has been fairly obvious for some time now, his official announcement came at the worst possible time, just as AG Tom Corbett unveiled a new round of “Bonusgate” charges.  Lentz got obligatory coverage from local Philadelphia outlets, but the front pages and politics discussions were dominated by charges against Northeast Philly’s own John Perzel.

Oh, and if you hadn’t heard, a former governor of Alaska has a book coming out.

U.S. Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, in particular, might have to face political repercussions for her vote. The Erie-area freshman Democrat barely beat incumbent Phil English last year and already faces at least on challenger, businessman Paul Huber. Whether Chris Carney, who represents a historically conservative district in the northeast, faces Election Day danger remains to be seen.

Rumors about an impending next wave of “Bonusgate” indictments have hovered over the Capitol for more than a year, but the chatter has picked up significantly in recent weeks. With last week’s election finished, now would seem the perfect time for Attorney General Tom Corbett to reveal the contents of an investigation most expect to be explosive.

Recent news stories indicate the attorney general will bring his long-awaited charges against Republicans this time around.

Last Tuesday’s election, which featured a near GOP sweep in the statewide judicial elections, gave every Republican candidate in Pennsylvania a boost, even if only to their campaign rhetoric. The GOP can now lay claim to political momentum in Pennsylvania, which has to be an emotional lift for a party that was battered at the polls in 2006 and 2008.

Expect the judicial-race results to be featured in every candidate’s stump speech in the months to come.