Trib Poll: Obama, Romney Tied at 47
The poll, commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, shows Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent apiece.
The survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 29 to 31, but most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy struck the state. The poll’s error margin is plus or minus 3.46 percent.
Obama and Romney are also tied at favorability, 48 percent apiece. 47 percent view Obama unfavorably; 44 percent view Romney unfavorably.
For Romney, it’s a dropoff from SP&R’s previous Pa. poll where Romney lead by 4 points, 49 percent to 45. That was commissioned by the Pa. Republican Party. That survey also showed Republican Tom Smith ahead of Sen. Bob Casey. In early October, SP&R found Obama ahead 47 percent to 45. In the Trib’s last poll, in late September, SP&R showed the same result – 47 percent to 45.
48 percent of respondents identified as Democrats, 42 percent as Republicans.
SP&R’s poll results diverge from some other independent numbers because of differences in methodology about how they choose their sample. The Real Clear Politics average, which includes this poll, shows Obama leading by 4.1 points, 49.4 percent to 45.3.