Democrats hold a significant voter registration edge in Pennsylvania, but Republicans have been steadily eating into it this year.
After the September 5th report showed some stabilization for Democrats, the new September 26th report has the margin between the two parties almost back down to the levels of the August 1st report.
There are 4,116,095 Democrats and 3,200,191 Republicans registered in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. That’s a gap of 915,904.
Additionally, there are 694,341 voters of no party and 448,202 members of minor parties. Altogether that makes for 8,458,829 registered voters in the state.
Republicans made gains in 57 of PA’s 67 counties. Once again, their biggest gains came in the Southwest where Appalachian residents are fleeing the Democratic Party. Among the standouts where Republicans reduced the margin between the GOP and the Dems were: Westmoreland (984), Butler (459), Cambria (450), Fayette (439) and Washington (429).
It’s also worth pointing out that Republicans are making up ground in Luzerne County (382) and running up the score in York County (944).
Democrats are still able, however, to pad their margins in Philadelphia (4,527) and Allegheny (1,744) Counties.
The SEPA Counties of Delaware (743) and Montgomery (615) are also still trending blue.
As I’ve noted in the past, though, the most intriguing trends have been in the two other SEPA Counties: Bucks and Chester. Republicans were able to regain ground in Bucks (463) and get the Dems’ registration advantage to under 10,000. Meanwhile Chester, which is the only collar county where the GOP holds the edge, continues to go against the grain. The Dems were able to shave 215 off the Republican margin there.
Expect one more report as we approach the October 11th deadline.
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8 Responses
With the record high negatives for both candidates, I am shocked that one of them has not pledged to only serve one term. That kind of pledge would almost guarantee victory since most Americans can’t fathom 8 years of either candidate as POTUS.
The Dems still lead by almost 916,000. A blip at best
Issac L – yes 12 years. My mind still thinks Al Gore won the 2000 election for some reason.
That’d be 12 years of Democratic control, CentPADem.
My prediction: Clinton wins in November and Dems regain control of the Senate; Clinton has a pretty run-of-the-mill presidency, Republican intransigence continues, Dems narrowly lose Senate in 2018. Hard to say beyond then. Perhaps Rs do some soul searching and we get enough votes for some meaningful immigration reform; a (deliberately) broken ACA forces fixes and bipartisan compromise results in a 2020 Clinton re-elect with continued divided government. The brewing civil war on the Republican side is wildly unpredictable and could result in a lot of scenarios in the future. The biggest area of interest to me is how redistricting plays out and if the demographic shifts are enough to put Dems back in power in places like PA for that process.
oh wow. My bad. Good looking Roman Bann
My prediction is that Hillary wins in November which will then lead to more radical right wing spew via Faux News, Limbaugh etc, then there will be more rural voters switching to Republicans. The NRA will be flipping out, meanwhile record numbers of guns will be sold. If you want to make a fortune, invest in gun manufactures stock. I also expect, unless Hillary Clinton ushers in some sort of huge economic expansion, she will be vilified from day 1 of her presidency, the Republicans will get behind a single candidate for 2020 and will win back the White House after 16 years of Democratic control.
G, the city of Chester is in Delaware County, which split from Chester County in 1789.
Anyone in Chester City will tell you that people there register republican and vote democrat in large numbers. This is historically because the municipal government mistreated people registered as democrats. Obviously that is only part of the county, but there are some well educated and minority-majority communities in Chester that should keep it in the blue column come election day.