In terms of a horse race, we have just rounded the first turn.

The race for the White House still has a long five months to go and the polling numbers that seem to come out every day can be confusing and, at some point, mind-numbing.

What do the numbers really mean? Well, you’ve heard us here at PoliticsPA refer to polls as a ‘snapshot in time.’

So we decided as a historical reference to look back over the last 20 years at what the national polls were telling us on the 28th days of March, May, August and October in each presidential cycle.

You can scroll over each bar and see what the national polling average – as compiled by RealClearPolitics – was for each major candidate from 2004 through 2024. We have also included the final electoral vote total for each candidate.

The most telling number to us is that nearly 94 percent of those surveyed through May 28 of this year have made a determination as to their choice for president. Four years ago, that number was at 90 percent while in 2004, just 88 percent said they were planning to vote for one of the two major candidates.

Although certainly within the margins of error, both George W. Bush and Donald Trump trailed their opponents in their 2004 and 2016 races with each down by a larger percentage than Joe Biden is today.