2020 Election Day Ratings from FiveThirtyEight, Cook, Inside Elections, Politico, and Sabato

Election Day 2020 is here. 

PoliticsPA has covered a number of ratings changes over the past year. 

Today, we give one last look at the Election Day ratings from FiveThirtyEight, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Politico, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball

PA Presidential Race: President Donald Trump (R) vs Former Vice President Joe Biden (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Biden has a 84% chance of winning

Cook: Leans Democratic

Inside Elections: Leans Democratic

Politico: Leans Democratic

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic

PA1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) vs Christina Finello (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Fitzpatrick has an 84% chance of winning

Cook: Leans Republican

Inside Elections: Leans Republican

Politico: Toss-Up

Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Republican

PA2: Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia) vs David Torres (R) 

FiveThirtyEight: Boyle has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Democratic

Inside Elections: Safe Democratic

Politico: Solid Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA3: Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) vs Michael Harvey (R) 

FiveThirtyEight: Evans has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Democratic

Inside Election: Safe Democratic

Politico: Solid Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

 

PA4: Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Montgomery) vs Kathy Barnette (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Dean has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Democratic

Inside Election: Safe Democratic

Politico: Solid Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA5: Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Delaware) vs Dasha Pruett (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Scanlon has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Democratic

Inside Election: Safe Democratic

Politico: Solid Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA6: Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Chester) vs John Emmons (R) 

FiveThirtyEight: Houlahan has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Democratic

Inside Election: Safe Democratic

Politico: Solid Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA7: Rep. Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) vs Lisa Scheller (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Wild has a 97% chance of winning

Cook: Likely Democratic

Inside Election: Safe Democratic

Politico: Leans Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic

PA8: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) vs Jim Bognet (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Cartwright has a 92% chance of winning

Cook: Leans Democratic

Inside Election: Safe Democratic

Politico: Leans Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic

PA9: Dan Mueser (R) vs Gary Wegman (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Mueser has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Inside Election: Safe Republican

Politico: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA10: Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) vs Eugene DePasquale (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Perry has a 52% chance of winning

Cook: Toss-Up

Inside Election: Toss-Up

Politico: Toss-Up

Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic

PA11: Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Lancaster) vs Sarah Hammond (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Smucker has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Inside Election: Safe Republican

Politico: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA12: Rep. Fred Keller (R-Snyder) vs Lee Griffin (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Keller has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Inside Election: Safe Republican

Politico: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA13: Rep. John Joyce (R-Blair) vs Todd Rowley (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Joyce has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Inside Election: Safe Republican

Politico: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA14: Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Allegheny) vs Bill Marx (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Reschenthaler a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Inside Election: Safe Republican

Politico: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA15: Glenn W. Thompson (R-Centre) vs Robert Williams (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Thompson has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Inside Election: Safe Republican

Politico: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA16: Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler) vs Kristy Gnibus (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Kelly has a 97% chance of winning

Cook: Likely Republican

Inside Election: Safe Republican

Politico: Leans Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA17: Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny) vs Sean Parnell (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Lamb has a 89% chance of winning

Cook: Likely Democratic

Inside Election: Safe Democratic

Politico: Leans Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic

PA18: Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Allegheny) vs Luke Negron (R) 

FiveThirtyEight: Doyle has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Democratic

Inside Election: Safe Democratic

Politico: Solid Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

6 Responses

  1. Even if Trump loses its close and once again the media pollsters are wrong wrong wrong, Trump carried FL and they had Micth McConnell a loser.

    If PA vote is not corrupted, Trump will win PA.

  2. Such a nice day for an election! Whoever wins – I hope they help us understand our differences better and work together to advance liberty and justice and inclusiveness. Nobody should feel left out.

  3. Trump is tanking and DeFoor is going nowhere. I deserve to win the Power Ball but is that going to happen. George McGovern, a good man who was respected by all, deserved to be President but that didn’t happen. So, Dems will win Auditor Gen and Atty Gen and State Treasurer. Fitzpatrick will lose in Bucks due to Trump being politically toxic in the suburbs. It cannot possibly get any better for Finello to win that having the top of the ticket drag down down ballot candidates.

    1. On most other points that you made, no one would seriously disagree…but with Auditor General…that one is not a D vs R race…thats a Competence, Ready Day One vs Competence, Not Ready Day One vote.

      Ahmad is not ready. And if you want to make it political…forget the Republicans, Philadelphia Democrats aren’t fond of her as they see her as a candidate looking for an office…stifling other better qualified candidates or being soundly beaten by better more qualified candidates…

      Shes run 3 times in 3 years. Congress, Lt. Governor, now Auditor General.

      Nothing new, but qualified to be Auditor General??

      So Democrats will be voting for her simply because she’s a Democrat, NOT because she’s qualified…a steep learning curve, tgus time wasted for PA taxpayers if she wins.

  4. Tim DeFoor deserves to make history and become the 50th Auditor General of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

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