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538 Midterm Forecast: Fetterman and Oz a Toss-Up; Shapiro Favored

Gov-Senate Candidates

The website FiveThirtyEight has released its 2022 midterm forecast and highlights four races to watch in the Keystone State.

In the chase for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Republican Pat Toomey, FiveThirtyEight’s model calls it a toss-up between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz. Fetterman, the current lieutenant governor, wins 51 times in the sample of 100 outcomes, while Oz, the celebrity doctor, wins 49 times.

In the gubernatorial race, Democratic Josh Shapiro is favored over Republican Doug Mastriano. In a sample of 100 outcomes, Shapiro, the Pennsylvania attorney general wins 73 times while Mastriano, a state senator from Franklin County, wins 27 times.

The website also ran their model on two U.S. Congressional Districts.

In the 8th District, Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright and Republican challenger Jim Bognet are considered a toss-up. Cartwright wins the sample of 100 outcomes, 51-49.

In the 17th District, Democrat Chris Deluzio is slightly favored over Republican Jeremy Shaffer by a 63-37 count in the sample of 100 outcomes.

Overall, FiveThirtyEight says that GOP is favored to win the U.S House, while the Senate is a toss-up. Given the headwinds facing the incumbent party in traditional midterms and the challenges with inflation and the economy, this is a bit of a surprise.

According to editor-in-chief Nate Silver‘s forecast, candidate quality matters in the Senate as well as for governor. And the model currently shows that there’s a 73 percent chance that the majority of the U.S. population will reside in states run by Democratic governors.


20 Responses

  1. Ding Dong Doug, THE INSURRECTIONIST, should be removed from the ballot by November due to the fact he is an INSURRECTIONIST. He was photographed on the Capitol grounds on Jan 6th, therefore he violated his Oath of Office.

    538 also found that Oz wins 99 out of 100 test outcomes in New Jersey.

    1. Both men, ding dong Doug and Mr.Oz should be removed immediately! Both are “liers ” and do not need to represent Pennsylvania!

      1. You must like record inflation and $5 a gallon gas. Things won’t improve if democrats are elected

  2. I’m no fan of Oz or Dougie, but we will see a Republican sweep in November. Biden has wrecked things so badly that no Dem is safe.

  3. Josh Shapiro is an excellent candidate like Tom Ridge had been or even John Heinz had been. Heinz and Ridge had been good at politics and Atty Gen Shapiro is very good at politics. I agree with the article that Shapiro’s success to date is all on his own with very strong people skills. Fetterman is struggling. He remains unclear about his health issues and the R’s are flushed with cash to criticize any flaw with a media blitz.

    1. Shapp only won reelection by like 10 votes how can you people have so much faith in him

      1. Yes, but now he’s running against an insurrectionst and crazy right wing conspiracy theorist!

  4. As an independent voter ,my vote goes to the Democrats. No way for those two republican charlatans.

  5. Congratulations Governor Mastriano and Senator Oz. They need to win this election and hold back the radical left!

  6. Fetterman needs to get a few well-tailored suits (not in black) and win big.

  7. there’s no way i’m voting for a guy who will only renounce his turkish citizenship if he wins. call me crazy, but u.s. senators shouldn’t be citizens of another country

    1. Good grief. People are allowed dual citizenship. My ancestors are Turkish and I love America. Dual citizenship doesn’t mean you wouldn’t have the people’s best interests at heart. I’m tired of weak leftist politicians who bow to our enemies and beg oil when we can be energy independent. I’m tired of open borders and crushing inflation…aren’t you?

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