8/5 Ups & Downs
Polls, retirements and a third chance. See who made this week’s list!
Katie McGinty. The Democratic Senate nominee is rapidly closing the polling gap between herself and GOP incumbent Pat Toomey. Tuesday’s PPP poll had McGinty down just one while Thursday’s F&M survey put her ahead by a point. Sure, Toomey scored Bloomberg’s endorsement but if Bernie Sanders electrifies the base for McGinty that could prove equalizing. The Democrat, though, must capitalize on this momentum.
Bill Shuster. Just when Rep. Shuster thought he was out, Art Halvorson pulls him back in. The Congressman solidly beat the conservative challenger in the 2014 primary and outlasted him earlier this year. Thanks to Halvorson’s write-in victory in the Democratic primary, he’ll have another shot at Shuster in November. If the third contest is as close as their second, it should be a fun one to watch on Election Night.
PA Senate Republicans. It was an unexpectedly terrible week for Democrats in Harrisburg this week. On Wednesday, State Sen. John Wozniak dropped out of his re-election bid. Such a move practically puts SD-35 in the Republican column unless the Dems can recruit a high-profile replacement, perhaps Mark Critz, to replace the incumbent. Additionally, the Democrats lost a young lawmaker in State Rep. Kevin Schreiber yesterday. By the way, if you’d like to replace Schreiber contact the York County Democratic Party.
Hillary Clinton. The Democratic nominee put a lot of resources into the Keystone State and they are starting to pay off. After last week’s convention in Philadelphia ended, the Clintons and Kaines embarked on a bus tour of PA and Ohio. In the aftermath, PPP put her up four points while F&M had her ahead by eleven. On top of that President Obama, who Clinton hugged both literally and figuratively at the DNC, had strong approval ratings in each survey. Since Saturday, FiveThirtyEight saw Clinton’s chances of taking the commonwealth rise from 53.4% to 79.9%. We’d say that’s a sign of a good week.
Eric Papenfuse. We’ll be giving the Harrisburg Mayor a down arrow every week until he lifts his ridiculous ban of PennLive. We’re up to week eight.
The Tweet of the Week goes to The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs for this stark illustration on the state of the 2016 presidential contest.
So a kid just screamed "take the bitch down" again at the Trump rally. He can't be more than 10.
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) August 2, 2016