Angus Reid Poll: Obama 51, Romney 47; Casey 53, Smith 46

Will this be the final poll we report before the election?

Barack Obama and Bob Casey both lead in Pa. according to the latest survey from Angus Reid Public Opinion. The firm conducts polls from an online sample.

Take this with a grain of salt. We’re not trying to take a dim view of online surveys. Given the limits of telephone polling, an approach like this may be the future of of public opinion research. But today, phone polling has a long and tested record while this is relatively new.

Here’s its description of the poll’s methodology:

From November 2 to November 4, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 507 randomly selected Pennsylvania likely voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 4.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current age and gender data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Pennsylvania. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Obama leads by 4 points, down from a 9 point lead he had in an Angus Reid poll two weeks ago. The survey showed a narrower gap among women in the race – they went for Obama 50 percent to 48 – than any other recent poll. Obama was ahead among men 52 percent to 46.

Casey leads by 7 points, up from a 5 point lead he had two weeks ago. He was ahead among women (54 percent to 46) and men (51 percent to 47).

6 Responses

  1. The biggest enemy to coal production is natural gas. Take a look at who Smith’s in bed with and you’ll see what Smith is really all about.

    The UMWA supports Casey because he has proven himself as the best candidate to represent our state. If Smith is such a protector of coal jobs, why is the UMWA supporting Casey? Think about it.

  2. If you think Bob Casey is pro-coal or natural gas you should have your head examined. He voted for the MACT standards that are shutting down coal power plants across the county (including PA) and sponsored legislation to put the EPA in charge of fracking (vs state agencies). The EPA has been nothing but hostile to all fossil fuel developement for the last 4 years. It’s time to send Casey packing.

  3. We are voting for Mitt and Bob in PA. Mitt can work with all people and so can Bob Casey. We are voting for the winners.

    Mitt will get the country back to work and many will be very prosperous. Bob will work for PA’s natural gas and COAL. Bob will get the job done efficiently and there will be plenty of jobs for everyone who wants one in PA.
    We need the Senator in Washington, DC who works with the people and not against them. Bob Casey is the one who will provide PA with the know how for all of us to prosper.

    That is why my family is doing the Republican and Democratic vote for the best men to get the country moving in the right direction and not in some politicians favorable direction.

    VOTE ON NOV 6TH ……..!!!!!!!!

    You can be the one responsible for the USA to be prosperous ………………………………

  4. George H.W. Bush won Pa in 1988.
    These are two traditional, moderate conservative leaders from the Northeast. Romney is conservative enough in this period in history to garner movement momentum in any stripe of Conservative Pa.

    The parallels of the two men are similar, with one key difference, which is vitally relavant in this cycle. GHW Bush had a stellar foreign policy resume that the times demanded and got from a leader. That’s why he won (that and being RR Vice President). Romney has a stellar resume in business that our times demand of a leader. That’s why Romney will win.

    Pa. will almost always give a center-right Republican the benefit of the doubt if they work for it. That’s why Romney will be in Pittsburgh tomorrow.

  5. What reason did Romney give to suburban voters?
    That he’ll turn back Roe v. Wade?
    That he’ll defund Planned Parenthood?
    That he’ll defund FEMA, and try to privatize emergency relief efforts?
    That he’ll double-down on Bush tax cuts with even lower rates for millionaires?
    That he’ll start a war with Iran?
    That he’ll let auto-industry go bankrupt?
    That he’ll loosen rules for banks and Wall Street?

  6. The Romney rally yesterday was exactly what the Dr. ordered. Kudos to Boston and Pa Victory. Now they will see what they’ve been missing. It will all turn on GOTV in SEPA and Western Pa.

    Romney wins in a squeaker because he just gave Suburban Philadelphians who voted for Obama in ’08 and are turned off now…..a reason to vote for him, and they will.

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  • Do You Agree With the Supreme Court Decision to Overturn Roe v. Wade?


    • No. (50%)
    • Yes. (47%)
    • Not Sure (3%)

    Total Voters: 109

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