Barack Obama and Bob Casey both lead in Pa. according to the latest survey from Angus Reid Public Opinion. The firm conducts polls from an online sample.
Take this with a grain of salt. We’re not trying to take a dim view of online surveys. Given the limits of telephone polling, an approach like this may be the future of of public opinion research. But today, phone polling has a long and tested record while this is relatively new.
Here’s its description of the poll’s methodology:
From November 2 to November 4, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 507 randomly selected Pennsylvania likely voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 4.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current age and gender data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Pennsylvania. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
Obama leads by 4 points, down from a 9 point lead he had in an Angus Reid poll two weeks ago. The survey showed a narrower gap among women in the race – they went for Obama 50 percent to 48 – than any other recent poll. Obama was ahead among men 52 percent to 46.
Casey leads by 7 points, up from a 5 point lead he had two weeks ago. He was ahead among women (54 percent to 46) and men (51 percent to 47).