2010 Gubernatorial Race:
Tom Corbett (R): 44 percent
Dan Onorato (D): 37 percent

By Alex Roarty
PoliticsPA
roarty@politicspa.com

Voter disapproval of Governor Ed Rendell and a clear desire for his successor to take the state in a new direction create a big problem for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Dan Onorato, according to a poll released Tuesday by Quinnipiac University

Only 42 percent of those surveyed approved of how the Democratic incumbent has handled his job, compared to 50 percent who disapproved. The split is worse among independents, with 56 percent disapproving.

But far more damning for Onorato were the results of a question that asked whether those surveyed wanted the next governor to continue Rendell’s policies. Fifty-five percent of people said they didn’t want the next chief executive to do so, with just 32 percent saying they did. Sixty percent of independents said they wanted a change in direction, while only half of Democrats said they wanted he next governor to continue the governor’s legacy.

The numbers are similar to those reported by the Public Policy Polling, which found Rendell with an even-worse approval rating. And it’s likely that feeling among the electorate is a major reason Onorato trails Corbett in the Quinnipiac poll 44 percent to 37 percent, numbers that confirm his status as the underdog in the gubernatorial race.

“Politics is a team sport,”  said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “In Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell has been captain of the Democratic team, and although he’s leaving office, it’s difficult for the Democratic nominee to duck his shadow, especially if he hasn’t clashed with him on policy matters.”

The numbers provide a clear rationale for why the Corbett campaign, at least thus far, has seemed as interested in running against Rendell as it does Onorato. The attorney general’s stump speech can include as many references to the incumbent, or even more, as it does to his actual Democratic opponent.

The Onorato campaign, for its part, seems cognizant of the fact it needs to represent at least a partial break from Rendell. The Allegheny County chief executive has pursued an aggressive reform agenda that includes calls for a limited Constitutional Convention and reducing the size of the legislature. His economic policies, which include lowering corporate taxes and creating a better regulatory climate, can sound more conservative than liberal.

The poll surveyed 1,367 votes from July 6 to July 11 and has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

Other interesting splits from the poll:

– The top-line number remains unchanged from the last time the poll was conducted, May 13. At the time, Corbett led 43 percent to 37 percent.

– Corbett leads Onorato among men 51 percent to 29 percent. Among women, the Democrat leads 43 percent to 38 percent.

– The attorney general leads Onorato in two key areas: reform and the economy. Forty-five percent of voters think the Republican can better bring reform to state government, comapred to just 31 percent of the county executive. On the economy, 44 percent of voters think Corbett can do a better job fixing it.

– It pays to be the attorney general. Corbett enjoys a very favorable view among voters, 44 percent to 11 percent. Onorato, meanwhile, isn’t as well-known as the Republican but still has a higher unfavorable rate, 16 percent, compared to 31 percent who like him.