AtlasIntel Poll: Trump 49.6, Biden 48.5

President Donald Trump holds a narrow edge over former Vice President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll from an independent research & data intelligence firm

A new AtlasIntel poll of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Trump leading Biden by just over 1 point, 49.6%-to-48.5%, while 1.9% said they would vote for another candidate. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, AtlasIntell polling has an overall B/C grade. 

Trump leads Biden by 17 points, (57-to-40), among men voters, while the former VP leads the president by 12 points, (55-to-43), among women voters. 

Likely voters between the ages of 18-44 prefer Trump, while likely voters 65+ prefer Biden, and likely voters between the ages of 45-64 are torn. Trump leads Biden by 12 points, (55-to-43), among likely voters between the ages of 18-44, while Biden leads Trump by 12 points, (55-to-43), among likely voters 65 years old+. Trump holds a 1 point lead over Biden, (50-to-49), among likely voters between the ages of 45-to-64 years old. 

Despite Trump’s narrow lead, 50.6% disapprove of his handling of the presidency, while 47.7% approve, and 1.7% don’t know. 

This online poll, surveying 672 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between October 29-30, has a margin of error of +/- 4%. 

The full survey can be found here.

While Trump has a narrow edge in this poll, a majority of polling conducted in October has consistently shown Biden leading Trump in the state. 

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely votersshows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters released on Oct. 23 showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. A Gravis marketing poll of likely voters in the state released on Saturday showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. Polling also released on Monday from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Civiqs/DailyKos poll of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Oct. 28 showed Biden carrying a 6 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. A third Quinnipiac University poll released this month on Oct. 28 showed Biden leading Trump among likely voters in the state by 7 points, 51%-to-44%. Biden holds a 5 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-45%, among registered voters in the state, according to a Univision/University of Houston poll. A PoliticalIQ poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen showed Biden leading Trump by 6 points, 51%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A second The Hill/Harris polling released in late-October showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, among likely voters in the state. A second Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released on Oct. 31showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-to-44%, in the state.

Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from the Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. However, a Trafalgar Group poll released on Tuesday showed Trump leading Biden by less than 1 point, 48.4%-to-47.6%, among likely voters in the state. 

One other poll from a conservative website showed Trump in the lead, while another GOP friendly poll and two Democratic backed polls released this month showed Biden with an advantage in the state, although the margin varied by the pollster. 

An Insider Advantage phone poll commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, of likely voters in the state released this week shows Trump leading Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Climate Power 2020 shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, in the state.

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4 points in Pennsylvania.

November 1st, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Top Stories | 4 Comments

4 thoughts on “AtlasIntel Poll: Trump 49.6, Biden 48.5”

  1. KKK says:

    Poll is a joke. Done by Dr. Atlas (see the poll name), who is a radiologist but now advises Trump on Covid. Claims it is a hoax, because it does not show up on his Xrays. Atlas takes a puff all the time. Crack addict? But them he must hang out with Donny Jr.

  2. revresbo says:

    It is an online – only poll. Inherently incomplete in a state as elderly as PA. AND, they used propensity scores. Very suspect.

  3. GOP ethics and values says:

    Does Republican State Rep Andrew Lewis support his fellow Republican State Rep Aaron Bernstine a serial philanderer and child abuser? Why hasn’t Lewis expressed his outrage?

    In one video obtained by the USA TODAY Network, Aaron Bernstine, R-10, New Beaver, Lawrence County, is behind the camera, but his hand is shown holding a cigar and offering it to his son.

    When the young boy takes a puff, Bernstine tells him to “hit it harder” and “breathe in,” followed by a woman’s voice saying, “No.”

    A second video has Bernstine again off camera asking his son, “What are we going to chase in Nashville?” The boy replies in a whisper, “Cadillac p—ssy,” using a vulgar term for vagina.

  4. Joe from Bloomsburg says:

    So exciting!! Great for PA to be in the spotlight. Hopefully when all is said and done all on opposing sides will think better of one another.

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