22 Responses

1. Southeast PA typically makes up 40% of the overall vote. It may be higher this year due to the congressional primary races in the suburbs. Because McCord, McGinty and Schwartz are all from there, the benefit will be split among those three but it will be more noticeable for Stack in the Lt Gov race because he is the only candidate from that area. Of course he will tank in the rest of the state but it could be enough to propel him to victory.

2. Philly will be about 16% of the 1 million Dem primary voters.

3. I think that philly and surrounding counties will have a higher turnout this year alot of races going on out there dont count out mccord those early polls wolf was running alone. once they start hammering him it will even up if Schwartz does real well out east and comes in third in the rest of the state she wins.only problem with wolf has no record only with rendell and im not sure he is so popular anymore

4. @ Frank etc.

   Philly is not, nor has it ever been, anywhere NEAR 40% of the vote… it might range from 12% of the statewide DEMOCRATIC primary vote in a low turnout year, to a little better than 20% in a higher turnout election. The range is so great because Philly has a lot of drop-off voters, but smart money would say that Philly will be in the mid-upper teens for this primary, let’s say 17% of the D primary vote… Allyson can definitely get more than 16% of it, but a ceiling is likely around 50%… let’s say she gets 50% of philly, that’s only 8.5% of the statewide vote then… where does the rest come from?

   And yes, if you add the collar counties then you get closer to 40%, but keep in mind that McCord and McGinty are from there also, and Wolf is all alone on the airwaves there and polling first… so at this point you’d have to think the collar counties will be pretty well split up and not be a huge stronghold for anyone.

5. Come on Frank, you asleep at the wheel! Sure Philly will have 40% of the vote but that is split 5 ways. If evenly split, that would be 8% each. Let’s say Schwartz doubles that and gets 16% (where she is polling at now), that still doesn’t get her to the estimated 28% Wolf should have.

   Another point on Wolf, its not his money or ads. Its his story. If it were ads Katie McGinty would climb in the polls, but she is not. She is stuck in the high single digits.

   Wolf’s story is he got rich building a business. McCord’s is largely the same except he was in Venture Capital, which is the same thing Mitt Romney did! Schwartz’s private sector claim to fame is that she got rich killing babies!

   I lean pro-choice but that is what people are telling me. Schwartz even proudly exclaimed this at the Progressive Summit while we all cringed. She came in fourth in the straw poll at the Progressive Summit and she will come in third on May 20th. Schwartz has no base. Philly can’t carry her to 30%.

6. @david i agree rob would make a good governor i just think in the end schwartzs philly base will prevail thats were 40% of the entire vote is.plus thats who corbett wants to face in november im sure he is working on that cause he knows wolf or mccord will crush him schwartz is his only hope to get relected.

7. Frank,
   Going negative will backfire. Dems want positive campaign. Rob has a good enough story + experience to win this, if his union supporters actually work hard for him.

   It’s still Wolf’s to lose at this point, and if I had to bet, I’d say he’s the odds on favorite. But, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings (or in this case, squeezes into the voting booth).
   Donors do not = ground game
   No message + Weak candidate + poor debate skills + no appeal outside Philly region = 3rd place

8. Noting the historic and dramatic win of [state-senator-elect] Scott Wagner [and the reactive-complaint of the York County GOP-Chair that Conservatives eschew him], one would have to note positive trends in favor of non-Establishment types…such as Guzzardi.

9. @david im still holding you to your prediction that schwartz finishes 3rd her ground game will be hard to beat 9000 diferrent donors.if the people on this site dont think the other candidates have some ammo for wolf your sadly mistaken sit back and let the fun begin.

10. Mike J-
    Considering that steveinpa reads the Washington Times instead of Washington Post, it shows that he’s using inferior journalism from the get-go.

11. steveinpa – You’re not accurately representing what the Washington Times article said, and at the end of the day it’s not relevant to this race anyway…

    For the record, that analysis they did was of federal candidates, and the win/loss rate you cited was for the general election – not primary. Your 2.4% chance of winning was actually reported by the article to be around 25% in primaries – but then you have to consider what is meant by “self-funded”… their definition they give is a candidate who personally funds more than 50% of their campaign… yes – Wolf would currently qualify under those criteria… Jo Ellen Litz and Max Myers may well have qualified also. And while Wolf has given a great deal of money to his own campaign – he has also raised money from donors on par with McCord and Schwartz, so he is not the stereotypical ‘self-funded’ candidate.

    What is reflected more than anything in the Washington Times piece is that self-funded candidates may be more likely to run general election challenges in long-shot districts where they have little chance of success – and they remain in the self-funded category because they are never able to raise the money to surpass their own contributions.

    In any event, the Washington Times article has nothing to do with the current race in PA. You gotta read beyond the headlines if you want to use someone else’s analysis to back up your point. And until you or one of the other campaigns comes up with something to back up your claim that they “have something on Wolf,” then all you’re doing is engaging in wishful thinking.

12. My friend Arlen Specter used to say “there’s only two ways to run….afraid and unopposed”. I’m betting that there’s a third….”with integrity”…and that we’ll see a lot of it in the weeks ahead.

13. Whatkadydid-
    Don’t worry, once you see more of Sestak, you’ll see that my posts were spot on the whole time. Try working for him for a few weeks. That should do it. 🙂

    As for being last, sometimes the ballots are arranged in two columns. If so, for Dem primary, then Schwartz could wind up in the second column, outside of that initial eye line.

    If Schwartz winds up 4th, I’ll be happy to be wrong in predicting 3rd. 🙂

    steveinpa-
    Self-funded is tough for outsiders, but it may well be due to them coming in from the outside, not being elected previously, being bad on the stump, or just not having a good message.

    A candidate like Wolf has the advantage of having the right message and a great backstory. He’s “walked the talked” and is regarded as the real-deal, rather than just some rich guy running to satisfy his ego or line his pockets and those of his cronies.

14. Yes self funded republicans have a better chance thats what the article said as for democrats not such a good chance and i definetly think the other campaigns have something on wolf if they dont i agree race is over.

15. SteveinPA, maybe you didn’t watch last nights primary election in Illinois. The “Self-Funded” candidate won the primary in a 4-way race for the Republican Nomination for Governor. Unless there is a skeleton is Wolf’s closet that hasn’t come out yet, he’s likely the nominee, especially with the great news today of being #1 on the ballot.

16. Steveinpa, what exactly are they waiting for to get the message out? This is something that should have been out a couple of months ago, it’s not like they had no money to do so.

17. Top of the ballot Tom!

18. According to Washington times since1990 self funded candidates have a 2.4% of winning of the 1700 who ran only 42 have won and most were republicans once Schwartz mccord get there message out there ground game will crush wolfs money.

19. LOL This is going to be a shit show. Hahaha!

20. Dont quit your daytime job guys.if you have one lol.

21. I usually think David is spot on (aside from the Sestak spots. 🙂 But I don’t think it’s the worst thing in the world for Koplinski or Schwartz. Being last isn’t as awful as being stuck somewhere in the middle. That really is awful, especially in a down ballot race. Your eye gets drawn toward the end of a particular category because you are looking at the beginning of the next one. Assuming in the Gov race, that McCord, McGinty and Schwartz all have the money to get name ID up there, they should be alright, and aren’t going to be killed by their ballot positioning (I’m also assuming Wagner won’t have the money to be competitive, because I’m realistic, and that’s the world we live in, for good bad or indifferent).I do agree with David’s assessment re: Congresswoman Schwartz, but I think it’s possible that she can even slip to 4th. (I think McGinty may end up beating her.)

    Regarding LG, I think the biggest concern has to be for Smith and Neuman at this point. They are right in the middle of the ballot, and have little name ID. Neuman is a great guy, but he is splitting a geographic with Critz, which is unfortunate , because he’s a better candidate. Critz can create a lot of problems for a Dem ticket, and I don’t want to even get started on the sideshow Paterno would create, if he remains on the ballot.

22. Tom Wolf getting top ballot position. It’s like adding salt to the wounds of the other candidates. Schwartz at bottom is going to cost her precious votes. I still say she comes in third.

    Bottom of ballot is a bad break for Koplinski, and big help for Stack.