Civiqs/DailyKos Poll: Shapiro and Ahmad Lead

A pair of Pennsylvania Democrats have the advantage over their GOP opponents, according to polling commissioned by this well known liberal website.

A Civiqs online poll commissioned by DailyKos of likely voters in the state shows Attorney General Josh Shapiro leading GOP challenger Heather Heidelbaugh by double digits, while Democrat Nina Ahmad leads Republican Tim DeFoor by several points for the Auditor General’s race. 

Shapiro leads Heidelbaugh, a former Allegheny County Councilwoman and Pittsburgh-area attorney, by 11 points, 52%-to-41%, in the race for Attorney General among likely voters in the state, while 6% remain unsure, 3% back Libertarian candidate Daniel Wassmer and 2% support Green Party candidate Richard Weiss. 

48% of likely voters said that they would vote for Ahmad, a former Deputy Mayor of Philadelphia, if the election were held today, while 41% said that they’d vote for DeFoor, a Dauphin County Controller, and 6% that said they are undecided. 3% back Libertarian candidate Jennifer Moore in the race and 2% support Green Party candidate Olivia Faison.

The latest polling didn’t include the race for Treasurer between Democratic incumbent Joe Torsella and GOP challenger Stacy Garrity. 

While each candidate has overwhelming support within their party, both Democrats also lead with Independent voters polled as well. 

Shapiro leads Heidelbaugh by 9 points, 47%-to-38%, among Independent likely voters. 94% of Democrats polled said that they will vote for Shapiro, while 9% of Republicans said that they’d back the incumbent Democrat. 85% of Republicans polled said that they’d vote for Heidelbaugh, while only 4% of Democrats said they’d support the GOP challenger. 

Ahmad leads DeFoor by 2 points, 41%-to-39%, among Independent likely voters. 91% of Democrats polled said they will vote for Ahmad, while 6% of Republicans said that they’d back the Democratic candidate for Auditor General. 85% of Republicans said they’d vote for DeFoor, while just 4% of Democrats said they’d support the GOP candidate for Auditor General. 

According to analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Civiqs has an overall B/C grade. 

This is now the third public poll of the Attorney General race and the second public poll for the Auditor General race. 

On Sept. 2, a Monmouth University poll of registered voters in the state showed Shapiro ahead of Heidelbaugh by 10 points, 51%-to-41%, while Ahmad held a 2 point advantage over DeFoor, 43%-to-41%. 

A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by the American Industry Project, whose contact number matches a DC-area consulting firm called Huckaby Davis Lisker Inc. that has worked for a wide range of GOP candidates and causes, showed a much tighter race for Attorney General. Their polling released on Sept. 23 showed Shapiro leading Heidelbaugh by just over 3 points, 46.7%-to-43.2%, while 5.3% were undecided.

This Civiqs/DailyKos poll, surveying 1,145 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between Oct. 23-26, has a margin of error of +/-3%. 

The crosstabs for the polling can be found here.

10 Responses

  1. I am excited to vote for Torsella, settling to vote for Shapiro and voting Libertarian for Auditor General.

  2. Sad that the top law enforcement for the state and the one for Philly have been so vocal anti Trump.

    Who is going to make fair, impartial decisions on if election fraud should be prosecuted if its from the Biden camp?

  3. For Auditor General

    You decide whos ready to sit in this chair in January:

    Nina Ahmad, PhD, Molecular Biologist, Entreprenuer Consultant, City of Philadelphia Deputy Mayor for Engagement.

    Versus

    Tom DeFoor, Dauphin County Controller, first Elected November 2015, first and only African American to be elected as a Row Officer in the history of Dauphin County, Re-elected November 2019 with no opposition.

    Achievements as Dauphin County Controller:
    • Created Dauphin County’s first Audit Division.
    • Recovered and saved Dauphin County taxpayer’s over $1 million since taking office in January 2016.
    • Changed how Dauphin County reports it finances from an Independent Audit to a more detailed and transparent Comprehensive Annual Financial Report.
    • Started Dauphin County Controller’s Financial Literacy Initiative with Harrisburg University (HU) of Science and Technology.
    • Created the first internship program within the Controller’s Office
    • Prepared Dauphin County’s first ever Annual Retirement Fund Report
    • Lead the efforts make it mandatory for investment managers to disclose all management and investment fees.

    Professional Awards as Dauphin County Controller
    • 2017 – Received Dauphin County’s first Certificate of Achievement for Excellence in Financial Reporting from the Government Finance Officers Association for our Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for fiscal year 2016. Received subsequent awards for fiscal years 2017 and 2018. 2019 is being prepared.
    • 2017 – Received Dauphin County’s first Outstanding Achievement in Popular Annual Financial Reporting certificate from the Government Finance Officers Association for our Popular Annual Financial Report for fiscal year 2016. Received subsequent awards for fiscal years 2017 and 2018. 2019 is being prepared.

    Past Professional Background over +25 years of Auditing Experience:
    • Retired Special Agent – Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Office of Attorney General. Investigated alleged violations of the Medicaid Fraud Control Act and prescription drug diversion, along with violations of the Drug Devise and Cosmetic Act
    • Former Special Investigator – Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Office of Inspector General. Investigated allegations of fraud, waste, and abuse in state departments under the Governor’s jurisdiction. Investigated and audited state contractors to determine if Small Diverse Business minority-owned business, woman-owned business, veteran-owned business, service-disabled veteran-owned, disability-owned, were given a fair opportunity to bid with prime contractors during the Request for Proposal (RFP) process.
    • Former Internal Auditor, Quality Manager and Fraud Investigator for University of Pittsburgh Medical Center – Health Plan (UPMC) and various federal contractors. Investigated allegations of healthcare fraud, waste and abuse within Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance products (UPMC-Health Plan). Also audited subject matter experts to assure they, and their personnel met the professional qualifications to do the work they were contracted, such as ISO 9001-2008 standards.

    Education:
    • Master of Science, Project Management, Harrisburg University of Science and Technology (HU), Harrisburg, PA,
    • Bachelor of Arts, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
    • Associates of Arts, Para Legal Studies, Harrisburg Area Community College (HACC), Harrisburg, PA,
    • Susquehanna Township High School, Harrisburg, PA

    Current Community Service:
    • Chair, HACC Foundation Board of Directors (July 2018 – March 2020 Resigned as Chair to run for Auditor General)
    • Board Member, HACC Foundation Board of Directors
    • Co-Chair, HU, Financial Literacy Education Conference
    • Board Member, Chris “Handles’ Franklin (Harlem Globetrotters) Foundation Board
    • State YMCA of Pennsylvania Board of Directors
    • Life Member Greater Harrisburg Area National Association for the Advancement of Colored People
    • Member, Pennsylvania State Fraternal Order of Police and Greater Harrisburg FOP Criminal Investigators Lodge #78

    Prior Community Service (Since 2002):
    • Board Member, Susquehanna Township High School Alumni Association, 2012 to 2016
    • Trustee, Hanna Educational Foundation, 2013 to 2016
    • Chairman, STHS Alumni Annual Golf Tournament, 2011 to 2015 (which raised funds for the Susquehanna Township Vietnam Veterans Memorial and the Alumni Scholarship fund)
    • Chair, HACC Multicultural Advisory Committee, 2002 to 2005

    Awards for Community Service:
    • Law Enforcement Officer of the Year, National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives Central PA Chapter, November 1991
    • Honored by Harrisburg Camp Curtain Branch YMCA Black Achievers Program, 1999
    • HACC Outstanding Alumni Award, 2003
    • HACC Distinguished Alumni Award, 2005
    • Named to the HACC Circle of Distinction, 2005
    • Perseverance Award presented by the Pennsylvania Diversity Coalition, January 2016
    • Harrisburg University, Alumni Spotlight Award, March 2019
    • Bro2Go “2020 Trailblazer Award” for my social impact and contribution to Dauphin County. Award will be given on October 24th, 2020

      1. That and calling Tim, Tom…apolgies…his name is Tim DeFoor and thats his resume and his day job.

        So the Bulk stops there.

        Ready day one.

  4. Trafalgar Group polls must be limited to State Republican Party calling itself. Shapiro is an outstanding AG and the race has never been in doubt. He is on national tv almost daily and has an immense media and political presence and Trafalgar has Shapiro only up by two when Trump’s candidacy is a national mess. Really Trafalgar??? Ahmad is impressive with her medical degree and obvious intelligence and the negative ads run against her where dug up out of a storage chest in the Nixon Museum. Typical and run of the mill negative ads. Torsella’s ads are upbeat and impressive. His opponent has made zero impression on Pa.

  5. Torsella’s ads that I’ve seen in the Altoona / Johnstown market are very good. I honestly haven’t seen an ad for Garrity but there are some yard signs around my community for her but they are usually next to the signs for a certain self professed “pussy grabber” which should be embarrassing for a lady like Ms. Garrity.

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