In a poll of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, the numbers indicate some choppy waters ahead for President Joe Biden and Congressman Matt Cartwright (D-08).
The poll, conducted by Cygnal, a polling group that serves GOP campaigns, and the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC dedicated to electing Republicans to the House of Representatives, showed Biden with a 37 percent approval rating in the District and trailing former President Donald Trump by three points, 48-45. While the difference does fall within the ±4.89% margin of error, it could portend a challenge for Biden in the northeast corner of a critical swing state.
According to Ballotpedia, “Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting – Trump 50.9 to Biden 48.0%.
The poll, conducted from July 24-25, also showed that 51 percent of likely district voters say that it is “time for someone new” in PA-08, while 39% prefer reelecting Cartwright, indicating some disenchantment.
The survey asked respondents to choose Cartwright or a “generic Republican” and an identical 44.6% percent selected each. One in 10 stated that they were undecided.
Democrats hold an 8,400-voter lead in registration in the District that comprises Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe, Pike and Wayne counties. In 2022, Cartwright defeated Republican challenger Jim Bognet, 51.2 to 48.8.
Cartwright will start the 2024 campaign with $1,418,662.42 on hand after raising $742,183.52 in the last quarter.
This probabilistic survey was conducted among 400 likely general election voters in Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District on July 24 – 25, 2023 and has a margin of error of ±4.89%. Known registered voters were interviewed via phone and SMS. Demographic quota fulfillment throughout data collection adhered to a survey sample representative of the likely 2024 general election turnout in PA-08.