CNBC/Change Research Poll: Biden 48, Trump 46
Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slim lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania according to this latest poll.
The latest CNBC/Change Research poll of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading Trump by 2 points, 48-to-46. Although Biden leads Trump in all six battleground states polled; Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; his smallest lead is in Pennsylvania and Arizona, where he holds a 2 point edge in each state.
The latest poll is also a significant comeback for Trump in comparison to the most recent Change Research/CNBC poll conducted in mid-July that showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 50-to-42, in Pennsylvania.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Change Research favors Democrats by an average of 1.1% and has an overall C- grade.
Voters in Pennsylvania are split on who would do a better job recovering from the economic impact of coronavirus, while Biden and the Democrats have a slight edge over Trump and the Republicans in who would be more trusted to handle COVID-19.
Voters are locked at 50-to-50 on which candidate and party would do a better job recovering from the economic impact of coronavirus. Biden and the Democrats lead Trump and Republicans by 4 points, 52-to-48, over who would be trusted more to handle COVID-19.
Over half of likely voters in Pennsylvania approve of Gov. Tom Wolf’s handling of the coronavirus. 55% approved of Wolf’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, while 45% disapproved. Wolf’s 10 point net approval rating on the matter is tied for the highest with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) of the six governors polled for their coronavirus response.
Pennsylvanians are torn on whether or not it’s safe for children to return to school or attend daycare. 49% of likely voters in the state say it is unsafe for children to return to school, while 47% say it is unsafe for children to attend daycare.
49% of Pennsylvania likely voters also said that they are definitely or probably likely to get the COVID-19 vaccine once it becomes available, while 38% say that they are definitely or probably unlikely to do so.
The results of the presidential race appear to be the closest poll from the outlet since mid-June when it showed Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 49-to-46, in the state. A number of recent polls show Biden with a larger lead, including Franklin & Marshall College that has Biden leading by 9 points and a Morning Consult poll that has the former VP leading by 8 points in the state.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 6 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll, surveying 382 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between July 24-26. The margin of error for the Pennsylvania specific data was not included in the polling, although the overall margin of error for the total battleground data is ±1.94%
The battleground polling can be found here.