CNBC/Change Research Poll: Biden 49, Trump 45

Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains his lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

The latest CNBC/Change Research poll of likely voters released on Wednesday morning shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, in the state. Biden’s largest lead of the six battleground states polled is in Wisconsin, where the former VP leads by 9 points, followed by Michigan where Biden has an 8 point advantage over Trump. Biden holds a 6 point lead in Arizona, while the two closest states are Florida and North Carolina, where he leads by 3 and 2 points respectively. 

Biden’s 4 point lead in the Keystone State is unchanged in comparison to the CNBC/Change Research poll conducted in early September

Biden’s largest lead in the state according to this pollster over the past few months was in mid-July when it showed the former VP leading the president by 8 points, 50-to-42.

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Change Research favors Democrats by an average of 1.1% and has an overall C- grade. 

55% of Pennsylvanians plan on voting in person on Election Day, while 33% plan on voting by mail. These numbers are identical to the CNBC/Change Research poll conducted in early September. The only other state in the battleground polling where a majority of voters plan to vote in-person on Election Day is Michigan with 51% of voters in the Wolverine State. 

Numerous polls released this week show Biden leading Trump in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster. 

A Trafalgar Group poll of likely voters released over this past weekend showed Biden leading Trump by just over 2 points, 47.3%-to-44.9%, in the state. A Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Monday showed Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 49-to-46. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakers Poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just under 3 points, 47.3%-to-44.6%, in the state. Biden’s largest lead from polls this week comes from a Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Thursday morning that has Biden leading Trump by 6 points among likely voters, 48-to-42, and 9 points, 49-to-40, among registered voters in the state.  

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.7 points in Pennsylvania.

This poll surveyed 579 likely Pennsylvania voters, between September 18-20, according to Real Clear Politics. The margin of error for Pennsylvania was not listed in the release, however, the margin of error for the battleground survey was ±1.79%. 

The battleground polling can be found here.

4 Responses

  1. Trump is toast in PA. I see tons of Trump signs out in yards like I did in 2016, but I also see way more Biden signs than Hillary signs. Trump barely won in 2016 – Biden supporters aren’t going to forget to vote this time.

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