CNBC/Change Research Poll: Biden 49, Trump 46

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slight edge over President Donald Trump in the Keystone State, according to this latest poll. 

The latest CNBC/Change Research poll of likely voters released on Wednesday morning in Pennsylvania shows Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 49-to-46. Biden’s largest advantage of the six battleground states polled is in Michigan with the former VP leading by 6 points, followed by Wisconsin where Biden holds a 5 point edge. Biden holds a 3 point lead in both Florida and Pennsylvania, while the two tightest states are Arizona with Biden holding a 2 point lead and North Carolina with the former VP with a 1 point edge. 

The latest poll, conducted right after the Democratic National Convention, shows the race slightly tightening in the state in comparison to the CNBC/Change Research poll conducted in early August where Biden led Trump by 4 points, 48-to-44. Biden’s largest lead according to this pollster over the past few months was in mid-July when it showed the former VP leading the president by 8 points, 50-to-42, in Pennsylvania. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Change Research favors Democrats by an average of 1.1% and has an overall C- grade. 

Just over half, 52%, of likely voters in the state disapprove of Trump’s job performance as president, according to data provided from Change Research to PoliticsPA. 53% of likely voters in the state also said that they are worried or uncertain about the U.S. economy when looking ahead to next year. 

Nearly half, 43%, think it is unsafe for children to return to school and 38% believe it is unsafe for children to attend daycare. This is nearly identical to their polling released earlier this month that showed 44% saying it is unsafe to return to school, while 44% said it was safe to let students return to school. 

Over half, 58%, of Pennsylvania likely voters say that they plan to vote in-person on Election Day, while 34% say that they plan to vote by mail, and 4% say that they plan to vote in person before Election Day. This shows a slight uptick in voters in the state planning on voting in person in November, in comparison to the poll released earlier this month in which 54% of likely voters in PA said they plan to vote in person and 33% saying they planned to vote by mail. 

Additional recent polling backs up this data that a majority of voters in the Keystone State plan to vote in-person for the presidential election. An Emerson College poll released earlier two weeks ago showed that 63% of likely voters in the state say that they intend to vote in-person for the presidential election, which is nearly identical to the latest battleground survey from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal that showed that 62% of likely voters in Pennsylvania that said they plan to vote in-person in November. 

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 5.5 points in Pennsylvania. 

This poll, surveying 984 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between August 21-23, has a margin of ±3.12%, according to a spokesperson from Change Research. 

The battleground polling can be found here.

August 26th, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Top Stories | 18 Comments

18 thoughts on “CNBC/Change Research Poll: Biden 49, Trump 46”

  1. Cathy Cook says:

    Throw out all fucking n*gger and mexican trash !
    send them back to mexico !
    vote Trump to keep amirica white !
    MAGA !
    MAGA !
    MAGA !

  2. Cathy Cook says:

    Black folk for Trump !

    1. Cathy Cook says:

      fuck you we dont want the coloreds ! Make amirica white again ! Throw out the black trash !

  3. Cathy Cook says:

    More sky screaming coming in
    November . Get the coloring rooms ready !

    MAGA !

    1. Cathy Cook's daddy says:

      Same deadbeat racist scumbag who can’t spell or properly use punctuation or construct a sentence. In other words, typical white supremacist trash.

  4. Joe Bin Hiden says:

    Didn’t CNNC lay-off thousands
    of workers after the 2016 debacle of calling Hillary
    the winner ?

    Like Biden says ” come on man”… Credibly is
    everything !

    Go Trump !

    1. Cathy Cook's daddy says:

      Same deadbeat racist scumbag who can’t spell or properly use punctuation or construct a sentence. In other words, typical white supremacist trash.

  5. Cathy Cook says:

    F&M 2016
    Hillary- 49
    Trump- 20

    1. Cathy Cook's daddy says:

      Same deadbeat racist scumbag who can’t spell or properly use punctuation or construct a sentence. In other words, typical white supremacist trash.

      1. Patrick Henry the 2nd says:

        Lotta words there. Lotta nothing there too. Keep your opinions to yourself fascist

  6. Joe from Bloomsburg says:

    Very exciting! We may have quite a flurry of activity here during/after election day! Neat that we’re so important on the electoral map again!

  7. G-max “I wish her well “ says:

    Franklin and Marshall today
    Biden 49
    Putin. 42

  8. Dose of Realism says:

    And that is a Dem poll. Dems are going to crow about their advantage in the SE, but their support has arguably plateaued in the Philly collars. Meanwhile, the rest of the state (including Biden’s supposed backyard in NEPA) is turning darker shades of red. If Trump’s turnout across the state matches or eclipses 2016, Dems are going to need to over-perform in the SE to reclaim PA.

    Can Biden do it? Remains to be seen, but I wouldn’t be too cocky if I was a Dem in PA right now. Joe’s lead is shrinking and it is still August.

    1. Bruce Alan Slater says:

      In Philly alone there remains tens of thousands of census forms that have never been answered and most likely ended up in the trash. Does anyone expect the same people that didnt return a census form to fill out and return a mail in ballot??????

    2. Patrick Henry the 2nd says:

      I always give Trump +4 in these polls at least.

      Lotta crying this November!

  9. William Penn says:

    3% lead for Biden is low estimate. Bucks, Montgomery, Philly are going big for Biden.

    1. Howard Wolowitz says:

      Remember how the vote went for Obama in 2012 in Phildelohia county.

  10. gulag Pittsburgh says:

    Trump is a pathetic disgrace as a human being and worse as a president.

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