Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slight edge over President Donald Trump in the Keystone State, according to this latest poll.
The latest CNBC/Change Research poll of likely voters released on Wednesday morning in Pennsylvania shows Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 49-to-46. Biden’s largest advantage of the six battleground states polled is in Michigan with the former VP leading by 6 points, followed by Wisconsin where Biden holds a 5 point edge. Biden holds a 3 point lead in both Florida and Pennsylvania, while the two tightest states are Arizona with Biden holding a 2 point lead and North Carolina with the former VP with a 1 point edge.
The latest poll, conducted right after the Democratic National Convention, shows the race slightly tightening in the state in comparison to the CNBC/Change Research poll conducted in early August where Biden led Trump by 4 points, 48-to-44. Biden’s largest lead according to this pollster over the past few months was in mid-July when it showed the former VP leading the president by 8 points, 50-to-42, in Pennsylvania.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Change Research favors Democrats by an average of 1.1% and has an overall C- grade.
Just over half, 52%, of likely voters in the state disapprove of Trump’s job performance as president, according to data provided from Change Research to PoliticsPA. 53% of likely voters in the state also said that they are worried or uncertain about the U.S. economy when looking ahead to next year.
Nearly half, 43%, think it is unsafe for children to return to school and 38% believe it is unsafe for children to attend daycare. This is nearly identical to their polling released earlier this month that showed 44% saying it is unsafe to return to school, while 44% said it was safe to let students return to school.
Over half, 58%, of Pennsylvania likely voters say that they plan to vote in-person on Election Day, while 34% say that they plan to vote by mail, and 4% say that they plan to vote in person before Election Day. This shows a slight uptick in voters in the state planning on voting in person in November, in comparison to the poll released earlier this month in which 54% of likely voters in PA said they plan to vote in person and 33% saying they planned to vote by mail.
Additional recent polling backs up this data that a majority of voters in the Keystone State plan to vote in-person for the presidential election. An Emerson College poll released earlier two weeks ago showed that 63% of likely voters in the state say that they intend to vote in-person for the presidential election, which is nearly identical to the latest battleground survey from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal that showed that 62% of likely voters in Pennsylvania that said they plan to vote in-person in November.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 5.5 points in Pennsylvania.
This poll, surveying 984 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between August 21-23, has a margin of ±3.12%, according to a spokesperson from Change Research.
The battleground polling can be found here.