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CNBC/Change Research Poll: Biden 50, Trump 46

Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a slight lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

The latest CNBC/Change Research poll of likely voters released on Tuesday shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 50-to-46, in the state. Biden’s largest lead of the six battleground states polled is in Michigan, where the former VP leads by 8 points, followed by Wisconsin where Biden has a 7 point advantage over Trump. Biden holds a 6 point lead over Trump in Arizona, while his polling numbers in Florida are identical to his 4 point lead over Trump in PA. The closest state polled is North Carolina, where Biden leads by 2 points. 

Biden’s 4 point lead in the Keystone State is unchanged in comparison to the previous CNBC/Change Research poll conducted in mid-September

Biden’s largest lead in the state according to this pollster over the past few months was in mid-July when it showed the former VP leading the president by 8 points, 50-to-42.

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Change Research favors Democrats by an average of 1.1% and has an overall C- grade. 

Numerous polls have been released over the past few days show Biden leading in the state, although the margin varies by the pollster.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters released after the presidential debate shows Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Reuters-Ipsos poll of likely voters shows Biden leading by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. Biden’s largest lead in a recent poll comes from Monmouth University that shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. 

Two GOP leaning polls released last week also have Biden leading the race, although the polling is tighter. A poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, commissioned by Trafalgar Group, released last week showed Biden leading by just over 2 points, 48.1%-to-45.9%, with likely voters in the state. A Federalist/TIPP poll of likely voters released last week has Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49-to-44.

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania.

The overall battleground polling surveyred 2,688 likely voters in the six states from Friday to Sunday and has a margin of error of ±1.89%. The Pennsylvania specific polling data was not stated in the article. 

The battleground polling can be found here.

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