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CNBC/Change Research Poll: Biden 50, Trump 46

Former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a slim lead over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

The latest CNBC/Change Research poll of likely voters released on Wednesday morning shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 50-to-46, in the state. Biden’s largest advantage of the six battleground states polled is in Michigan and Wisconsin, where the former VP leads by 6 points. Biden holds a 4 point advantage in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Biden leads Trump by 3 points in Florida and 2 points in North Carolina. Biden’s lead in the Keystone State is outside the poll’s margin of error. 

Biden extended his lead in Pennsylvania by 1 point, in comparison to the CNBC/Change Research poll conducted in late August that showed Biden with a 3 point lead, 49-to-46, in the state. Biden’s largest lead according to this pollster over the past few months was in mid-July when it showed the former VP leading the president by 8 points, 50-to-42, in Pennsylvania.

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Change Research favors Democrats by an average of 1.1% and has an overall C- grade. 

43% of likely voters said that the economy, jobs, and cost of living is the most important issue facing the country, making it the most important issue for voters in Pennsylvania, according to data provided from Change Research to PoliticsPA. 37% said that political corruption is the most important issue, while 35% said that COVID-19 is the #1 issue facing the nation. 

55% of Pennsylvanians plan on voting in person on Election Day, while 33% plan on voting by mail. This remains nearly unchanged from a month ago when 54% of voters polled said that they were likely to vote in person. 

53% of likely voters in the state view people protesting for criminal justice as favorable, while 59% find armed militia groups patrolling the protests as unfavorable. 

Several polls released since last week all show Biden in the lead, although the margin varies by the pollster. A Monmouth University poll of registered voters released last Wednesday shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters has Biden with an 8 point advantage over Trump, 52-to-44. A poll released on Tuesday morning from Susquehanna Polling & Research showed Biden with just a 2 point edge over Trump with likely voters, 44-to-42, which is within the poll’s margin of error. A Morning Consult poll also released on Wednesday morning showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, among likely voters in the state. Biden’s largest lead in recent polls comes from a NBC News/Marist poll released on Wednesday morning that shows 53% of likely voters in the state are backing Biden’s bid, while 44% are supporting Trump. 

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4.3 points in Pennsylvania. 

This poll, surveying 829 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between September 4-6, has a margin of ±3.4%, according to a spokesperson from Change Research.

The battleground polling can be found here.

2 Responses

  1. CNBC is a more conservative poll so if Biden is leading here in PA this is big news. If CNBC has the lead at 4% in reality it is 8% because that is poll that tends to cut R’s slack. Fantastic news for Biden and remember early voting starts in some states at the end of Sept. It’s not like the old days where voting was one day in November.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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