For the fourth consecutive ratings update, Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat remains the most likely to flip partisan control in 2022, according to this national outlet.
According to CNN, Pennsylvania is still listed as the Senate seat that is most likely to flip parties in the 2022 election in it’s latest Top 10 rankings released on July 5. Pennsylvania debuted as the most likely seat to flip by CNN in its inaugural rankings released on March 3 and also was #1 in the April 21 ratings update and May 27 update.
Like the previous ratings, CNN’s Simone Pathe writes that Pennsylvania’s race being an open seat, as a result of Sen. Pat Toomey retiring, coupled with Joe Biden flipping the state in the win column in 2020 as the reason it remains atop their most likely to flip list.
Pathe writes that the Democrats have an “already big field.” The analysis specifically describes Lt. Gov. John Fetterman as “the biggest name” and a “big fundraiser,” references Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh being backed by EMILY’s List, “a powerful player in Democratic primaries,” plus Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny) who is “closely eying the race.”
The lone Republican candidates mentioned by name in the analysis are Jeff Bartos, a Montgomery County real estate developer and former Lt. Governor candidate, and Army veteran Sean Parnell.
The Democrats who have filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Elections Commission not mentioned by name in the article include state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D-Philadelphia), state Sen. Sharif Street (D-Philadelphia), Dr. Kevin Baumlin, the chief of emergency and urgent care services at Pennsylvania Hospital, former Norristown Borough Council President John McGuigan, Brandaun Dean, Larry Johnson, Alexandria Khalil, Kyle Norton, and Alan Shank.
The Republicans who have filed to run for the seat that are not mentioned by name in the article are Kathy Barnette, a veteran and conservative commentator who was the GOP nominee for Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District in 2020; Sean Gale, an attorney; Carla Sands, former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark during President Donald Trump’s administration; Everett Stern, a businessman and HSBC whistleblower, Craig Snyder, a political consultant and former chief of staff to Sen. Arlen Specter, James Edward Hayes, John Debellis, Martin Rosenfeld, and Robert Jeffries.
CNN isn’t the lone national outlet placing Pennsylvania’s Senate race in a category that shows that the seat is up for grabs in 2022.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated Pennsylvania’s Senate race in 2022 as the lone Toss Up of the cycle in its initial ratings, the Cook Political Report listed Pennsylvania’s race as one of two states that are considered to be Toss Ups, and Inside Elections labels the Keystone State as a “Battleground” for the 2022 Senate election.