In what will be one of the final polls before Election Day, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. has a slight lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick although the 3-point advantage is within the survey’s margin of error.

Conducted by CNN/SRSS from Oct. 23-28, the poll of 819 registered voters in the Commonwealth showed the three-term senator with 48% support, compared to 45% for the former CEO of the Bridgewater Associates hedge fund. An additional four percent indicated a preference for another candidate, while another two percent said neither.

The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.7%.

Casey has continually led McCormick in polling throughout 2024 and has averaged a lead of 5.0 points since Labor Day. McCormick has been able to close the gap recently and trails Casey by just 3.6 points over the last five statewide surveys.

One of the signs that could be gleaned from recent polls is the floor for Casey appears to be approximately 47 percent, while McCormick’s ceiling in the latest surveys is 46 percent.

Crosstabs

• Men: Casey, 48-46%
• Women: Casey, 47-45%
• Black/Non-Hispanic: Casey, 73-16%

• 18-34: Casey, 51-36%
• 35-49: Casey, 48-43%
• 50-64: McCormick, 54-45%
• 65+: Casey, 50-46%

• College degree: Casey, 60-36%
• Non-College: McCormick, 58-35%