by Louis Jacobson
PoliticsPA contributing writer

In recent months, Pennsylvania has only solidified its position as the must-win state of Election 2024. With 19 electoral votes to allocate — the most of any battleground state — Pennsylvania is widely expected to determine whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the presidential race. In addition, the competitive Senate contest between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick is a crucial building block for the Senate majority.

Finally, with control of the U.S. House also up for grabs, Pennsylvania remains a crucial state for the House’s outlook. Currently, Democrats hold a 9-8 edge in the congressional delegation.

For the eighth election cycle dating back to 2010, PoliticsPA is publishing congressional vulnerability rankings for Pennsylvania’s delegation. This is our third handicapping of the 2024 Pennsylvania congressional races, and depending on how much the races change in the next two months, we may do one more before Election Day.

Since we last ranked the most vulnerable congressional seats in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation in May, we’ve seen enough movement to tweak our list a bit, although the broad outlines of the map remain largely the same.

As it was in our last assessment, our highest category, “Highly Vulnerable,” remains empty. But the second-highest category, “Vulnerable,” continues to include four races —  in descending order, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), Rep. Susan Wild (D), Rep. Scott Perry (R), and Rep. Chris Deluzio (D).

That represents a shift upward for Perry: For the second consecutive analysis, we’re pushing Perry higher on our vulnerable list. He’s running against Janelle Stelson, a former newscaster who’s well-known locally and who — in a rare accomplishment for a challenger — accumulated more money in the bank through the end of June than the incumbent had. This race moves from 4th most vulnerable on our list to 3rd, while remaining in our “vulnerable” category.

Our third-highest category, “Potentially Vulnerable,” includes one more seat, the one held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R). 

The other change in this updated analysis is an emptying-out of our lowest rated category: “Minimally Vulnerable.” 

In our last edition, two Democratic incumbents received this rating: Chrissy Houlahan, who represents Chester and Berks counties, and Summer Lee, who represents Pittsburgh. However, Houlahan faces Neil Young, a social studies teacher and wrestling coach who has almost no money in the bank, and Lee, a staunch progressive, has not seen any well-organized or well-funded opposition from Republicans following her primary victory over Edgewood Borough Council member Bhavini Patel, who was running as a more moderate alternative.

The districts represented by Houlahan and Lee join 10 other House districts in Pennsylvania that we do not currently consider vulnerable at all. 

Here’s our full rundown. Statistics are from the Almanac of American Politics 2024.

Highly Vulnerable

No races

Vulnerable

No. 1: 8th Congressional District 

Incumbent: Matt Cartwright (D)
Tenure: 6th term
Geography: Northeastern Pennsylvania: Primarily Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Monroe counties
2022 House result: Cartwright, 51%-49%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-48%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
White: 75%
Black: 6%
Latino: 13%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 26%
Poverty rate: 13%

Cartwright maintains his spot on top of our vulnerability list. His No. 1 ranking partly has to do with the Scranton-based district’s being slightly less Democratic than that of fellow endangered Democrat Wild; in 2020, Trump won the 8th District by three points. 

The other reason for his retaining the top spot has to do with the strength of Cartwright’s challenger, construction CEO Rob Bresnahan. Bresnahan reported having more than $1.2 million in the bank through the end of June, and he received an additional $240,000 in support from outside groups over the same period.

That’s an impressive warchest, though it’s still a fraction of the $4.5 million Cartwright has in the bank. (Incumbents of either party are generally able to outraise their challengers.)

The Scranton Times-Tribune reported that Bresnahan donated $2,000 to Cartwright’s campaign in October 2022, though it added that he also donated $1,000 to Cartwright’s 2022 Republican challenger, Jim Bognet. Bresnahan told the newspaper that after making the donation, he became “disappointed” with Cartwright’s support for Joe Biden’s and Kamala Harris’ agenda, which is why he decided to run against him.

Cartwright and Bresnahan are scheduled to meet for a debate in late October.

No. 2: 7th Congressional District

Incumbent: Susan Wild (D)
Tenure: 3rd term
Geography: Lehigh Valley: Primarily Lehigh and Northampton counties
2022 House result: Wild, 51%-49%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 49.7%-49.1%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+2
White: 69%
Black: 5%
Latino: 19%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 30%
Poverty rate: 11%

Wild has won this swing district in three straight elections, but by declining vote shares – 54%, 52% and most recently, 51%. This time, she will face six-term state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who previously worked on the 2004 reelection campaign of then-Sen. Pat Toomey. He also worked as an official at both the U.S. and Pennsylvania labor departments. 

Mackenzie has improved his fundraising posture since we last looked at this race. Since winning a three-way primary, Mackenzie’s cash in hand has increased to $373,000, and it’s been bolstered by $623,000 in outside spending. But that’s still substantially below the nearly $3.9 million Wild reported having in hand through the end of June.

Wild and Mackenzie participated in an early-September debate that news accounts described as “testy.” Mackenzie hit Wild over her 100% support for Biden’s agenda, including his foreign policy and economic record. Wild countered by highlighting her efforts at bipartisanship. 

No. 3: 10th Congressional District (shift from No. 4)

Incumbent: Scott Perry (R)
Tenure: 6th term
Geography: Harrisburg and environs: Dauphin, Cumberland, and York counties
2022 House result: Perry, 54%-46%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+5
White: 71%
Black: 10%
Latino: 9%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 32%
Poverty rate: 10%

For the second consecutive time in our analysis, Perry moves up a slot on our list, from 4th place to 3rd, while remaining in the Vulnerable category.

While Perry occupies a Republican district, the region is trending purple, and his hard-right politics have helped make him vulnerable. He chaired the hardline House Freedom Caucus and was investigated by the FBI for involvement in the effort by then-President Donald Trump to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

Democrats are high on their challenger, Janelle Stelson, a former Republican who won a six-way primary partly on the strength of her familiarity as a longtime news anchor for WGAL-TV.

Stelson had an impressive $1.1 million in the bank through June 30, which is more than the $788,000 Perry reported. (Factoring in outside spending narrows the gap.) A Franklin & Marshall College Poll in June found Perry leading Stelson within the margin of error, 45%-44% with 11% undecided.

Stelson has gone on offense on the airwaves, running a nearly $300,000 ad campaign criticizing Perry’s co-sponsorship of the Life At Conception Act. In a sign of the interest the race is generating among national Democrats, Stelson is also getting support on TV from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the House Majority PAC.

No. 4: 17th Congressional District (shift from No. 3)

Incumbent: Chris Deluzio (D)
Tenure: 1st term
Geography: Northern suburbs of Pittsburgh: Allegheny and Beaver counties
2022 House result: Deluzio, 53%-47%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 52%-46%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 82%
Black: 8%
Latino: 2%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 8%

Deluzio won this swingy district by a six-point margin in 2022, holding it for the Democrats after Conor Lamb made an unsuccessful run for Senate. He faces fellow veteran and state Rep. Rob Mercuri.

Both candidates have upped their fundraising game: Deluzio reported having nearly $1.9 million in the bank through the end of June, ahead of Mercuri with $801,000. Deluzio has spent six figures to air an ad focusing on his efforts following the February 2023 Norfolk Southern train derailment in a neighboring part of Ohio. 

Potentially vulnerable

No. 5: 1st Congressional District

Incumbent: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Tenure: 4th term
Geography: Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks County
2022 House result: Fitzpatrick, 55%-45%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 52%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 80%
Black: 4%
Latino: 6%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 5%

As a Republican, Fitzpatrick is a perennial target in a district that backed Biden by 5 points. But Fitzpatrick’s moderate voting record and his family history (his late brother occupied the seat before him) has strengthened his position. He easily dispatched Mark Houck, a challenger from his right, earlier this year.

Democratic nominee Ashley Ehasz, a former Army Apache helicopter pilot who lost to Fitzpatrick by 10 points in 2022, is running again, and she has improved her fundraising figures. Through the end of June, Ehasz had already raised more than double what she had raised in the entire 2022 cycle, and that has enabled her to fund a six-figure ad buy that attacks Fitzpatrick over abortion.

At the same time, Fitzpatrick has already raised as much he did during the entire 2022 cycle, and he leads Ehasz in cash on hand, $3.9 million to $1.3 million. That’s a healthy margin in an expensive media market — Philadelphia — especially in an election year where presidential, Senate, and other campaigns will be competing for advertising space.

An internal Democratic poll in June found Fitzpatrick at 47% and Ehasz at 45%, with 8% undecided. But observers view Fitzpatrick as less vulnerable than any of the other four incumbents on our list.