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Cook Debuts 2020 Congressional Ratings

We’re just over five weeks removed from the 2018 midterms and still a couple of weeks away from the 116th Congress even being sworn in.

But if you’re already thinking 2020, you’ve come to the right place.

The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman debuted their 2020 House ratings yesterday showing that the battle for the House is already “shaping up to be highly competitive.”

Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) and Scott Perry (R-York) are considered to be in for the most competitive races in PA, with all three still remaining the favorites “leaning” toward another term.

On Election Day 2018, Cook had Fitzpatrick and Perry’s races as Toss Ups against their Democratic challengers.

Fitzpatrick won by 2.6 points over Scott Wallace to capture a second term, while Perry defeated George Scott by 2.8 points for a fourth term in the House.

Although Cartwright fended off John Chrin, winning by just over 9 points for another term in the Northeast Pennsylvania district, Cook has this as Leaning Democratic for 2020. On Election Day 2018, the election analyst had the race as Likely Democratic, in a district that President Trump won by nearly 10 points.

Reps. Mike Kelly (R-Butler), Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny) and Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) are all listed as the “likely” favorites for their reelection bids in 2020.

Of the three, Kelly had the closest race in 2018, taking down Ron DiNicola by just over 4 points in the Trump friendly district. During this past Election Day, Cook had the race listed as Leans Republican. Lamb carried his district defeating fellow incumbent Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Allegheny) by over 12 points, while Wild defeated Mary Nothstein by nearly 10 points in the race for the open seat in the Lehigh Valley. Cook had Lamb’s race against Rothfus as Likely Democratic on Election Day, while Wild’s bid against Nothstein was listed as Leans Democratic.

The other 12 Congressional seats in the state are listed as “solid” for the incumbent in 2020.

Cook’s initial ratings shows “Democrats with a head start in 219 races, Republicans with an advantage in 196 seats and 20 Toss Ups. Of the 20 Toss Ups, 16 will be held by Democrats in January and four by Republicans.”

Cook also reports that depending, “depending on the outcome of a possible new election in North Carolina’s 9th CD, Republicans will need to net either 18 or 19 seats to reclaim the majority, and there will be either 31 or 32 Democrats in districts President Trump carried in 2016.”

7 Responses

  1. Cook should wake up and recognize the reality that Congressman Cartwright is a strong and well liked office holder an very unlikely to be defeated.

  2. PA-8 is fools gold for Republicans. Chrin got suckered into spending his own cash so the GOP wouldn’t have to pony up for some other loser.

  3. Cook was not one of the parties picking 40 seats and hedged their bets in 2018. Cartwright seems to be the obsessive favorite of pundits who are fixated on the term “Trump District” but the reality is clear. Cartwright won overwhelmingly in Lackawanna County, his home county and one of the bigger counties in his district, he carried Luzerne and won districts that needed to be won. What Cook is missing is that the “Trump District” brand is weakening now with the onslaught of legal problems. Trump may have a solid base but 2020 will find him with less appeal and less interest in all things Trump.

    1. Cartwright is solid. Lackawanna big D. Mueser with all his big money wasn’t even willing to go against Cartwright. He ran in the next district over. Skirt chasing temper tantrum mueser knew that even with all his big money he’d get beaten by Matt.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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