We’re just over five weeks removed from the 2018 midterms and still a couple of weeks away from the 116th Congress even being sworn in.
But if you’re already thinking 2020, you’ve come to the right place.
Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) and Scott Perry (R-York) are considered to be in for the most competitive races in PA, with all three still remaining the favorites “leaning” toward another term.
On Election Day 2018, Cook had Fitzpatrick and Perry’s races as Toss Ups against their Democratic challengers.
Although Cartwright fended off John Chrin, winning by just over 9 points for another term in the Northeast Pennsylvania district, Cook has this as Leaning Democratic for 2020. On Election Day 2018, the election analyst had the race as Likely Democratic, in a district that President Trump won by nearly 10 points.
Reps. Mike Kelly (R-Butler), Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny) and Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) are all listed as the “likely” favorites for their reelection bids in 2020.
Of the three, Kelly had the closest race in 2018, taking down Ron DiNicola by just over 4 points in the Trump friendly district. During this past Election Day, Cook had the race listed as Leans Republican. Lamb carried his district defeating fellow incumbent Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Allegheny) by over 12 points, while Wild defeated Mary Nothstein by nearly 10 points in the race for the open seat in the Lehigh Valley. Cook had Lamb’s race against Rothfus as Likely Democratic on Election Day, while Wild’s bid against Nothstein was listed as Leans Democratic.
The other 12 Congressional seats in the state are listed as “solid” for the incumbent in 2020.
Cook’s initial ratings shows “Democrats with a head start in 219 races, Republicans with an advantage in 196 seats and 20 Toss Ups. Of the 20 Toss Ups, 16 will be held by Democrats in January and four by Republicans.”
Cook also reports that depending, “depending on the outcome of a possible new election in North Carolina’s 9th CD, Republicans will need to net either 18 or 19 seats to reclaim the majority, and there will be either 31 or 32 Democrats in districts President Trump carried in 2016.”