While some states shift in the Democrats favor for the presidential election, the latest ratings update from the Cook Political Report shows that Pennsylvania remains a Toss Up for the presidential election.
In an article published on June 19, Amy Walter keeps Pennsylvania as one of the five states in the Toss Up column for the showdown between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Other states included in this category include Florida, which has 29 Electoral votes, North Carolina’s 15 Electoral votes, Arizona’s 11 Electoral votes, Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral votes, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District’s 1 Electoral vote.
Pennsylvania, which has the second highest number of Electoral votes in the Toss Up category, has remained in this column since their debut 2020 Election College Ratings were released in January 2019.
The three states to change their rating in the most recent update is Michigan, which moved from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, while Iowa and Ohio moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
Walter notes that the Biden campaign included Pennsylvania is one of six states in it’s “first big ad buy of the general election,” and that this rankings are “coming at a time when Trump is in a trough” in recent polling, although Pennsylvania’s rating remains unchanged.
Neither party has the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House, but Biden holds a lead in the Electoral College math.
Democrats have 248 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories, meaning Biden would need just 26% of the electoral votes in the Toss Up column to secure a victory. Republicans currently have 204 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely, and Lean category, meaning Trump would need to capture over 75% of the electoral votes in the Toss Up column in addition to the others in the GOP category to earn a second term.
On Election Day 2016, Pennsylvania was listed as Leans Democrat for the presidential race between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
These election analysts also have Pennsylvania as one of seven states with multiple House races currently listed as toss-ups. In their latest House ratings released on June 16, Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) and Scott Perry (R-York) are both in races listed as toss-ups.