Cook: PA Stays as Toss-Up for General Election

Another ratings update from the Cook Political Report keeps Pennsylvania as a toss-up for the general election.  

In an article published on March 23, the election analysts have Pennsylvania as one of the few states in the toss-up column for the general election. Pennsylvania has remained in this column since their debut 2020 Election College Ratings were released in January 2019. 

Pennsylvania is one of six states currently listed as toss-ups and the state with the second most electoral votes up for grabs in this column. Other states included in this category include Florida, who has 29 Electoral votes, Michigan’s 16 Electoral votes, North Carolina’s 15 Electoral votes, Arizona’s 11 Electoral votes, Wisconsin’s 10 Electoral votes, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District’s 1 Electoral vote.

Amy Walter writes in the article on March 23 that despite the coronavirus having a “potential impact” on the president’s approval rating, polling at that time pointed to his ratings remaining nearly the same. Walter cited NBC/Wall Street Journal, Gallup, and Marist/NPR/PBS polling having Trump’s approval rating between 43-46%. The latest polling, which was released after this article was published, has indicated a slight uptick for Trump with Gallup having his rating at 49% now.

Walter writes in the article that although the Democratic primary campaign between former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders is “temporarily on hold,” due to the coronavirus, that the race is “essentially over” citing Biden’s delegate advantage as an “insurmountable lead for the nomination… barring a complete collapse.” 

Neither party has the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House, but Walter writes that Biden starts with a “slight lead” in the Electoral College math. Democrats have 232 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely and Lean categories and would need just 39% of the electoral votes in the Toss Up column to secure a victory. President Donald Trump currently has 204 electoral votes in the Solid, Likely, and Lean category for the Republican nominee and would need to capture 66% of the electoral votes in the Toss Up column in addition to the others in the GOP category to earn a second term. 

On Election Day 2016, Pennsylvania was listed as Leans Democrat for the presidential race between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. 

These election analysts also have Pennsylvania as one of six states with multiple House races currently listed as toss-ups. In their latest House ratings released on March 27, Reps. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) and Scott Perry (R-York) are both in races listed as toss-ups.

6 Responses

  1. Trump is the national village idiot. It was laughable for awhile to have an unqualified TV personality in the White House but the S*#t hit the fan and it’s no longer funny. People are dying.

  2. It will be a sweet November when PA puts Biden over the top to make up for the freak close result four years ago. I just hope that all the Perry’s, Keller’s, and Guy R go with him. Would that be too much to Ask? You would think Trump would put PA in that special Florida Straus for help?

  3. Trump has mishandled this crisis so badly that by the time November rolls around Biden will be favored by close to double digits.

  4. Agree its a toss-up yet I would be shocked if the same state that put Wolf back in office by 17pts 2 years ago didn’t swing back to Dems in November. Lots of time between now and November.

    1. Keep in Corbett won big in 2010. Obama won comfortable in 2012. It’s all turnout.

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