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Cook Political Report: Lamb’s Race Moves From Leans Dem to Likely Dem

The race in the 17th Congressional District has moved further into the Democratic incumbents favor, according to the final House ratings from the analysts at the Cook Political Report

Rep. Conor Lamb’s (D-Allegheny) reelection bid against GOP challenger Sean Parnell has moved from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in the final ratings update on Nov. 2

Although President Donald Trump narrowly carried the boundaries of the 17th District in 2016 over Sec. Hillary Clinton, Democrats are confident that former Vice President Joe Biden is doing well in the district. 

“On Sunday, GOP nominee Sean Parnell’s home was allegedly vandalized with pro-communist propaganda,” writes David Wasserman. “Other than that, the race has been quiet in the home stretch and Democrats are increasingly confident Biden is well ahead in these Pittsburgh suburbs.”

Wasserman added that Republicans “hope Parnell might run again in 2022, depending on the lines and the political environment.” 

This is the second ratings change for this race in the fall. In late-September, the race moved away from Lamb’s direction from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. 

Lamb captured the national spotlight when he upset Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone in the old Trump-friendly 18th district, vacated by Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Allegheny), in a special election earlier in 2018. He won a full term in Congress in Nov. 2018 by defeating Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Allegheny) by just over 12.5 points in the district’s present boundaries.

On Election Day 2018, Cook Political Report listed Lamb’s race against Rothfus as Likely Democratic. 

Lamb joins Rep. Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) in the Likely Democratic category, while Rep. Matt Cartwright’s (D-Lackawanna) race in the 8th Congressional District remains as Leans Democratic. The lone race in the state listed as a Toss-Up is Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-York) reelection bid in the 10th District against Democratic state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball also has Lamb’s race listed as Likely Democratic, while Inside Elections rates the race as Solid Democratic. 

The latest Cook Political Report ratings can be found here.

2 Responses

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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